Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[cerneman]

I am up to 110mm of rain so far here this month and with a few days to go no doubt it will rise further

Very unseasonal again today with a maximum of 13C, where is winter?!?

Unforunatly for UK, this is just one variation of what we call winter, But expect before it's over we will see few more variations

10c Damp Drizzle Dark...Bedraggled wet Pheasant on lawn today...

Hope not finish up in oven, Pheasant I mean not the weather

[Dorsetbred]

I am up to 110mm of rain so far here this month and with a few days to go no doubt it will rise further

Very unseasonal again today with a maximum of 13C, where is winter?!?

With a 120.2mm so far this month and more to come. Warm at 11.2C for most of the day.

This is very much an area of interest for me, as you will see from my self advertised blog link below in my signature. I do feel that 2012's climate will have left its mark and 2013 will need to be a year of recovery. Nature is very resilient though and with a bit of added help from mankind, we can make it recover. So far, aside from the excessive rainfall, the end of 2012 is looking very similar to 2011 and I would advise anyone interested in natural phenological indicators to keep an eye out for the following.

• Woodland Snowdrops and Winter Aconite in flower
  
• Unusual utterings from the birds with many a Thrush species in song, amongst others
  
• Drumming Great Spotted Woodpeckers
  
• Maybe an early Bumblebee species
  
• Maybe an early day flying Butterfly
  

I have a undying love for the natural world and come the New Year, I will be making a point of getting out and enjoying as soon as possible.

I like this idea, even if we can get a forum thread running, maybe we can do something akin to the South & SW thread?

[cerneman]

With a 120.2mm so far this month and more to come. Warm at 11.2C for most of the day.

I like this idea, even if we can get a forum thread running, maybe we can do something akin to the South & SW thread?

Who could organise thread? Would be willing to contribute

[katemart]

Think a nature observations thread is a fantastic idea - especially if it is UK-wide so that comparisons can be made. Unfortunately i can't tell snowdrops from lily-of-the-valley so I would be useless but would really enjoy reading what others have written. I was also surprised to read a few years ago that "nature is reactive not predictive" (dur!) so there is no point studying the number of berries on the holly to see if the winter will be a hard one.

[Dorsetbred]

I suppose this is really a subject for the Space, Science & nature forum, as that seems to handle these sorts of discussions. At best a pinned thread would make it more usable, but as the seasons appear to stabilise postings would probably drop off. Might be worth asking the support team if it's possible to pin something in that thread.

[Dorsetbred]

Not seeing any major pressure shift, but the wind speed has increased notably over the last few hours.

Currently constant 27mph with gusts of 42mph over the harbour.

[cerneman]

I suppose this is really a subject for the Space, Science & nature forum, as that seems to handle these sorts of discussions. At best a pinned thread would make it more usable, but as the seasons appear to stabilise postings would probably drop off. Might be worth asking the support team if it's possible to pin something in that thread.

Have contacted support team, lets see what they say

[Ukwoody]

Hi, forgive this Englishman living in Wales popping in, just persuing and seen the comments about a nature/observation thread. I think if that was made a Uk wide thread it would be very interesting and attract quite a few poeple. Great idea!

Woody

[Lyn-M]

Yes, I too like that natural world observation idea.

Sounds really wild outside here this evening, rain is only light. Wish I'd got my wireless station set up.....

[Jane Louise]

And here is the new thread I've started

[Mark Parsons]

Well looking at models it could well be pretty much game over for most of january now also with mild all the way

This really reminds me of those awful mild 90's winters When was the last time we even had a run of hard frosts?

About 3 weeks ago!!

[AWD]

Further on from Ian's posts in the MOD thread, we could have some interesting weather (for those that don't mind other weather aside from cold/snow) this weekend. First of all there is a small possibility of something Wintery briefly over the highest ground in the South West, ie Exmoor, Mendips, Cotswolds etc.

Although not showing anything specifically over the West Country, the latest NAE shows some colder air digging in tomorrow night;

With PPN around the West Country, and something Wintery shown over Exmoor;

I wouldn't rule out something similar to what happened late October, with evaporative cooling playing a part. Small possibility but who knows.

Another possible weather event could be something thundery/convective in tomorrow's front, with an associated "squall line" developing;

Strong winds picking up as I speak, with gusts reaching 50mph in exposed places tonight;

Wouldn't rule out isolated tornadic activity tomorrow in any squall either;

Things slowly quieting down next week with pressure rising, becoming milder too. Hopefully give the sodden ground a rest and a chance I dry out a little. Plenty of activity above our heads however, with a possible SSW happening in the new year, which will make for very interesting model viewing in the second half of January, regardless of whether we see its affects or not.

So plenty of activity at ground level this weekend and in the Stratosphere over the next couple of weeks.

Fascinating stuff for those interested and wanting to learn about Meteorology. Lots happening!

Have a good new year guys!

[Bumpkin]

And here is the new thread I've started

http://forum.netweat...s/#entry2458258

Excellent. Nature and the countryside is a big passion of mine so will be willing to contribute. I have a reasonable knowledge of nature in the British countryside with butterflies being my main area.

Weather wise I just had to go out to pick up my Son from work and its blowing a hoolie,drizzling and 10.3c yuck

[khodds]

Just been out to rescue the recycle bins that I'd forgotton to bring in. Its so mild! Guess the cold front has been delayed

[AWD]

Just been out to rescue the recycle bins that I'd forgotton to bring in. Its so mild! Guess the cold front has been delayed

Cold front isn't due to pass over the SW until tomorrow morning.

Winds ahead of it are from a SWesterly direction, hence the mild air currently being blown up.

Once the front & low move further east, winds behind the front will turn more westerly and WNWesterly bringing in a rPm flow of colder air.

This time tomorrow is when the colder air should be over us. This time Sunday we will be back to milder air again.

All part of a typical UK "zonal" pattern as many like to say!

[AWD]

You can see below the two main interests this weekend. Firstly the squall line is shown to pass over the West Country between around 9am & Midday;

This will contain brief strong wind gusts with possible isolated tornadic activity and reactive rain rates.

Then tomorrow night and the early hours of Sunday we have a rash of shower cells coming in from the west which could contain hail, thunder, sleet, snow & lightning;

Most are likely to be of rain, but there will no doubt be a lucky few who could get something from the above list, especially if you have elevation on your side!

[john w]

Good informative posts guys and girls thanks. As for models...nothing of major emphasis to shout about for my location pretty non descript though i wouldnt be surprised to see the odd sleey mix in the cotswolds or rumble of thunder.

Nice wind blowing tonight mind! Makes a change from rain rain rain

Heres hoping the ssw influences the energy channels driving our present setup

[littlemissy]

The wind is very strong at the moment .Opened the back door to let the dog out and she was blown backwards into the kitchen ! i am not sure if there is a faiint rumble of thunder as well, or if it is t he wind blowing over some object.

According to weatjer obs at Dunkeswell station the wind is gusting at 47km/h.

Edited December 29, 2012 by littlemissy

[Andy Bown]

Another real soaking for our region this morning, the front has really intensified over the last few hours and an obvious squall line

is now in place. As usual in this situation the front is only slowly moving East with the pulses of rain running SW-NE along it.

Aside from the squall line there's plenty of rain and gales before it arrives too!

With it loking like turning drier but still mild, Spring occurences could take shape in nature, we already have flower shoots growing and

the birdsong this week has been Springlike on the few dry mornings.

[Polar Bear]

I see from the radar that the squall line is developing quite well and is stretching a fair few kilometres . Wind has picked up over last half hour for sure... Meant to be taking my friends horse out for a short hack .. Now I have all my waterproofs etc but I am really starting to think twice now to go before that squall line. Knowing me ill be out in it when it arrives... I wanted to ride this morning! Oh what to do..?

[Lyn-M]

Squall line is pretty much here right now. Guess OH and the dog are getting seriously wet, either that or sitting cosily in the car waiting for the worst to be over!!!

[cerneman]

Again for third time this year people in my village experiencing flooding, Unfortunatly it's the same familys every time, I can see few houses up for sale after this.but how on earth they will sell them after this years flooding is the Question..............Great to see the new nature thread

[gottolovethisweather]

Think a nature observations thread is a fantastic idea - especially if it is UK-wide so that comparisons can be made. Unfortunately i can't tell snowdrops from lily-of-the-valley so I would be useless but would really enjoy reading what others have written. I was also surprised to read a few years ago that "nature is reactive not predictive" (dur!) so there is no point studying the number of berries on the holly to see if the winter will be a hard one.

Research my dear, research. Google can be your saviour.

For anyone wanting to do things a bit more seriously, there are links on my blog under the section Useful Websites. There is actually a UK Phenology Network who would love to have your records, i.e. even one record of a Swallow or Snowdrop etc. Like that well-known supermarket slogan, every little helps, when it comes to the Citizen Science movement.

Anyway, back on topic.

Air Temp currently 9.7c, 3mm and counting, the squall is approximately 60 miles west of me, currently running through Bristol to Wells.

Edited December 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

And here is the new thread I've started

http://forum.netweat...s/#entry2458258

Well done Jane.

What will be especially important here is that people should really, when they can, state the locations and date of occurence of said phenomena.

At least, if people keep their locations updated, then it will be very useful citizen science and I could do a good job of getting it more publicity.

With ten posts already, it is becoming a very informative thread.

Edited December 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[legritter]

squall line gone through mendip lasted about 10/15 min ,now steady mod rain but looking on radar system seems to be slowing with further pulses of hvy rain developing .. sun nights mon rain looks very threatening . hardly 5mm fell over night, with wales and s west getting more . had some very impressive gusts over night ahead of front .