Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[NUT]

Still raining quite a bit

[Hairy Celt]

Pants day. Photos later when finished baking cake #3.

[Sraigcaife]

It's monsoon season in Scotland apart from its not even warm and humid !! Diabolical weather, not even left the house today and the dog doesn't want to either.

[airliquide]

The same here the laundry room of my residence look like a swimming pool !

[Norrance]

Yep, Our dog is the same. Not exactly keen to go out for a walk.

Only 15 mms rain today so far so drier than the last couple of days. A couple of degrees warmer than yesterday too with a max of 6.7C [current temp]. Didn't feel any warmer though as the wind was up a bit on yesterday. Steady moderate rain at the moment.

[howham]

Cold, wet and blustery.

[Sraigcaife]

Looks like its gonna be turning drier as of tomorrow though. Thank god for that, was seriously considering emigration if it carried on.

[NUT]

Looks like rain's kind of stopped. Good timing as I need to walk dogs again (Might not be as wet as I was expecting)

[BurntFishTrousers]

Just started to rain here for the first time in weeks. Could do with it, not had much of the wet stuff - lawn is bone dry.

[Hairy Celt]

Just started to rain here for the first time in weeks. Could do with it, not had much of the wet stuff - lawn is bone dry.

Your nose has just extended by 18 inches.

Photo here of storm damage - not as spectacular as wrecked sheds but it makes you appreciate the energy involved here - a mile of coastline reshaped like this. There used to be a footpath along the line of red posts, now it's just covered in coarse gravel, like everywhere else, some of which is from the baskets - totally mashed - some from the beach.

Edited December 22, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

It's quiet tonight can mean only 1 thing ...no cold in the models...don't think will even bother looking .....and here's me excited to be surfing on the new tv and not many posts to read...or maybe everyone on the lash....my head just recovering from last night now

[GulberwickWeather]

Getting a tad windy up here! Top gust 69mph and steady wind speeds toward the top end of Severe Gale 9.

[Hairy Celt]

On the lash... tut tut, surely not. Good healthy upstand..hic..ing citizens we... hic.. oops...

Some pub run... jeepers, slap me in the face with a damp dish cloth why don't you?

Edited December 22, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[NUT]

Absolutely tipping it down again.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think some people on the MT have properly lost the plot tonight. I keep having to try and convince people that meteorology is even a valid science beyond 4 days out, and that 'being a tiny island' (I'm sure Hagar would dispute that!) does not mean that we shouldn't at least attempt to look at the longer term, even while advising caution.

That being said the GFS has gone from good to pants, which it frequently does, the ECM has been a bit more steady and the UKMO still holds a lot of potential so I'd advise that, while mobile is 'nailded on' for the foreseeable, the temperature is certainly not.

Also, a word to the wise on heights to the south: these are not, in themselves, meaningful, because they only form when the jet is a bit further north. If the train of lows stops moving west to east, though, they can be incredibly handy, and in fact I'd argue that ALL major cold spells start with the northward ridging of an Iberian, Euro or Azores high to mid latitude and then onto Greenland.

These are the kind of charts that many of us are, understandably, sneering at:

What is the difference between these and purely zonal, you may ask? Nothing, for here, but all of them involved a heavily disrupted vortex with some degree of forcing from the strat (although we don't have the data on this for '47) and things across the pole are far from typical of an uninteresting winter. When the music stops, the heights move northwards and the real fun and games begin:

And the rest, of course, was history. The SSW would be no 'magic bullet', but what it would be likely to do is cause the zonal music to 'stop' at some point, and from there will be major opportunities for cold. The difference between 'modern' winters and those classics is that in the former, the mid latitude bit was generally as far as it got. If we can get the landing to Greenland right from there, though, we're on for another one of the latter rather than the former type.

[Cheggers]

You will all be happy to know....... it's still pishing it doon!!!

[BurntFishTrousers]

Dammit. So much surface water now that I fully expect a rip current to occur soon

[DR(S)NO]

You will all be happy to know....... it's still pishing it doon!!!

And here Cheggars....and here....in fact I think it's been pishing doon for nigh on 3 days now!!!

So much so that..the world may not have ended yesterday. But we may need an Ark before Xmas!!!

[Cheggers]

And here Cheggars....and here....in fact I think it's been pishing doon for nigh on 3 days now!!!

So much so that..the world may not have ended yesterday. But we may need an Ark before Xmas!!!

Got really heavy over the last hour or so, and as BFT has stated, may require a surf board by the morning.

[Dean E]

Really feel for any of you guys that are located in Shetland... Winds do look very strong up there!

Any reports of snow? Probably the closest we can get at the moment!

SM

[DR(S)NO]

Oh how things change!!

New I shouldn't have bought that sledge for the kids!

[Northern Strath]

Been watching Die Hard 2, pretty jealous of that blizzard John McClane

Yippee ki yay mofo

[Northernlights]

Long way to go yet. One of these photos is my sreensaver just now and was taken on the 3rd of April this year.

[GulberwickWeather]

Very windy this morning with driving rain. Currently averaging 41kts (Severe Gale 9) top gust 65.1 kts = 74mph

[Guest]

Very windy this morning with driving rain. Currently averaging 41kts (Severe Gale 9) top gust 65.1 kts = 74mph

Morning Hagar, it's quite windy down here too, although merely a breeze in comparison to your wind!! Southern Scotland and Northern England will have a breezy morning, but it should ease off without much to write home about. What's your wind forecast for later?

Long way to go yet. One of these photos is my sreensaver just now and was taken on the 3rd of April this year.

Spot on NL, I have never really thought of December as a snowy month, despite evidence to the contrary, but anyone giving up hope on Winter at this point is just daft.

Edited December 23, 2012 by CatchMyDrift