Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[lorenzo]

I thought there would be a minger of a fortnight in December and we are in it..!

Horrible day out there - a big fat elongated pair of Low pressure systems lie across the country dumping copious rain and delivering autumnal wind, they make slow progress the remnants of the Ruskie High still slowing their escape up the Iceland Norway corridor. Hence they hang around decay and make things pish.

Another one queued up after these too at 72 hours, then another at 144 hrs which thankfully takes a more NNErl track.

Solution - pretend it is Autumn and raid floorboards. Hopefully the Atlantic last bunch of energy and around boxing day colder solutions fill FI on the models.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Rain more horizontal than of late.

Things blowing around too.

Makes for a change.

[Hawesy]

Cloudy, damp, breezy and milder at 8c. Not pleasant but a big improvement on yesterday!

[NUT]

Does feel quite a bit milder.............but now we getting blowy/horizontal rain. Lovely!

[mistyqueen]

Very windy this morning with driving rain. Currently averaging 41kts (Severe Gale 9) top gust 65.1 kts = 74mph

Aye, a wee bit breezy right enough, but I see you got your seasonal cairry oot flown in yesterday, so that's you sorted for the next few days then! Cheers!

[GulberwickWeather]

Height of the storm now I reckon. Getting frequent gusts in excess of 60kts (69mph) and sustained windspeeds in excess of 50kts.(59mph)

Edited December 23, 2012 by Hagar

[Coast]

Height of the storm now I reckon. Getting frequent gusts in excess of 60kts (69mph) and sustained windspeeds in excess of 50kts.(59mph)

[BurntFishTrousers]

Stonehaven is telephone boxed:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/603271_431748066891980_1906117626_n.jpg

[Hairy Celt]

Little more than a gentle breeze here as the centre drifts over - pressure currently 976mb.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Stonehaven high street. pic.twitter.com/2ZmrRsyw

— COLIN THIRD (@COLINTHIRD1969)

December 23, 2012

[GulberwickWeather]

Still gusting in excess of 60kts. Getting some reports of damage. Large shop in Lerwick town centre has its roof coming off and roads nearby have been closed.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Stonehaven this morning @STVStonehaven luckily we are up the hill. pic.twitter.com/osS4486I

— Steve Harris (@SteveJHarris)

December 23, 2012

[GulberwickWeather]

https://twitter.com/...0/photo/1/large

Yuk, Merry Christmas Must speak to my Cuz she lives in Stoney.

[GulberwickWeather]

Still giving it plenty, top gust now 77mph. Heavy sleet.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Oh crap - poor Stonehaven. Just before christmas too.

Rain only really finally stopped here within the past few hours after peeing down for days. Never seen so much water! Even though we're on the side of a hill my neighbour still managed a soaked carpet due to the culvert blocking as I mentioned before. Nuts.

[November13]

Wet,Mild and windy...Grim...more like an October Storm than mid winter. We had a good first two weeks of winter this last two weeks has ruined it. I just hope we are not trapped in this cycel for much longer.

[November13]

The models are pretty pesimistic for the next week or so. Is this the dreaded Bartlett? Hope not!

[Cheggers]

Wet and wild would sum up this morning.

[Hawesy]

A few very welcome glimpses of the sun here, though the wind is touching gale force. Nothing compared to Shetland, mind!

Temp currently 8c after a high of 8.5c this morning. Unusually in winter it's cooler here today than at Leuchars (which was reporting 9.6c at 7am).

[mistyqueen]

Rain finally off now, wind dropping. Wasn't as bad as i thought it would be, but more to come over the next few days.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Flood in stonehaven #crazy pic.twitter.com/gzQM0DUZ

— Darren Ross (@DarrenRoss634)

December 23, 2012

[skyeblue]

That's one big puddle.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think some people on the MT have properly lost the plot tonight. I keep having to try and convince people that meteorology is even a valid science beyond 4 days out, and that 'being a tiny island' (I'm sure Hagar would dispute that!) does not mean that we shouldn't at least attempt to look at the longer term, even while advising caution.

That being said the GFS has gone from good to pants, which it frequently does, the ECM has been a bit more steady and the UKMO still holds a lot of potential so I'd advise that, while mobile is 'nailded on' for the foreseeable, the temperature is certainly not.

Also, a word to the wise on heights to the south: these are not, in themselves, meaningful, because they only form when the jet is a bit further north. If the train of lows stops moving west to east, though, they can be incredibly handy, and in fact I'd argue that ALL major cold spells start with the northward ridging of an Iberian, Euro or Azores high to mid latitude and then onto Greenland.

These are the kind of charts that many of us are, understandably, sneering at:

What is the difference between these and purely zonal, you may ask? Nothing, for here, but all of them involved a heavily disrupted vortex with some degree of forcing from the strat (although we don't have the data on this for '47) and things across the pole are far from typical of an uninteresting winter. When the music stops, the heights move northwards and the real fun and games begin:

And the rest, of course, was history. The SSW would be no 'magic bullet', but what it would be likely to do is cause the zonal music to 'stop' at some point, and from there will be major opportunities for cold. The difference between 'modern' winters and those classics is that in the former, the mid latitude bit was generally as far as it got. If we can get the landing to Greenland right from there, though, we're on for another one of the latter rather than the former type.

Hmm, first signs?

[GulberwickWeather]

Winds slowly but surely coming down now, averaging around Gale Force 8 with gusts to 56mph.

Spoke to my cousin in Stonehaven. She lives in the flooded area but shes fine, her flat is on the first floor so shes dry and still has power etc.

Edited December 23, 2012 by Hagar

[Hairy Celt]

Hmm, first signs?

Of summer perhaps? Or is that too optimistic...