The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[Gustywind]

Xena, I was basing my view on the 0z nae, can't say what data the beeb are using.

[XENA]

The NAE is good but its not perfect....it has rain over us at the moment and its snowing :-)

[MKN]

The NAE is good but its not perfect....it has rain over us at the moment and its snowing :-)

Suppose that's a good sign. lets hope it snows wer it shows rain for the next few days aswell. I think its so marginal a downgrade or 2 today and we,LL all see rain even if its between snow. An upgrade or 2 though and could very easily see both bands be entirely snow

[snowangel32]

Just seen forecast for west mids, snow tonite then turning to rain, damm warm sector

[XENA]

Suppose that's a good sign. lets hope it snows wer it shows rain for the next few days aswell. I think its so marginal a downgrade or 2 today and we,LL all see rain even if its between snow. An upgrade or 2 though and could very easily see both bands be entirely snow

I'm no expert but i'm sure the East Mids will do fine. The West Mids may well still see snow but its more marginal. Good luck everyone! Its certainly looking like a cold week anyway

[snowangel32]

It would have to be a big upgrade Xena some models now have the warm sector even in london, i think we will have to wait until thurs or fri to get significant snow.

[Snowy Easterlies]

think its marginal for me too as im not really in east anglia or the midlands, hopefully, im far enough north and east, UKMO has warm sector further west than GFS

[XENA]

Its down to nowcasting. The BBC never mentioned rain for tomorrow for East Mids. :-) Even the NAE is showing rain here now and it has snowed. All we need to do is window watch & radar watch for the next 24hrs.

[Supacell]

If the dewpoints are 1c lower than predicted then it will be all snow for anywhere in the Midlands. However, if they are 1c higher than predicted it would be rain/sleet for all of us. It is marginal. Current dewpoint predictions should just keep it as snow for my area but it will be knife-edge stuff.

In summer the dewpoints are often overestimated, as I use them a lot in storm chasing (hence the GFS tendency to over-cook CAPE etc) but I wonder if they do the same in the winter - i hope so for all of us.

Of course after tomorrow it turns bitterly cold with sub-zero dps, and I am certain there would be disturbances throughout the week which would bring snow for all of us at some point.

[snowangel32]

Yh i love the UKMO model would give us a real chance of some snow, and keeps us in the cold right throughout with plenty of snow chances lets pray that will be the winner lol.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well the bbc looked good for tonight and tomorrow , 5cm tonight with more over high ground, then showed snow tomorrow but seemed to jump over the midlands and then showed the snow from say Oxford east , but stressed the uncertainty and and said southernmost counties may see more rain with some snow mixed in , with more snow over high ground.

Changes are aloft.i think

[MKN]

00z run of the day is most certainly the GEM.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snow tonight for north west midlands, followed by quick thaw through tomorrow, but should be white first thing

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Guys the live bbc24 just said , it will be the far south , and far west , and Northern Ireland , that sees rain with snow on the hills , he specifically highlighted them areas and his hand gestures made it clear he did not count the midlands in the rain section,I'm feeling very positive folks, then we had more snow tomorrow night , albeit patchy

[Chess01]

Snow tonight for north west midlands, followed by quick thaw through tomorrow, but should be white first thing

What about the 2nd band coming in

[kev238]

Agreed.

Light light snow falling in Nottingham every so often.

Tonights band should deliver to all... Though local differences expected due to the nature of these types of bands from the west , north west.

Tomorrows... Still looking like Birmingham north east for the midlands area.

I think nottingham, derby, Leicester , Newark, Peterborough all look good at the moment but a small shift could alter that.

However, I think most places will see some white stuff in the next twenty four hours!!

[Shezale coventry]

Sticking to what i said last night i think the snow line will be east of birmingham looks like the first band will be all snow for all of us then the second band will he a mixture of sleet and snow for western parts of our region and a all snow event for birmingham eastwards i think some places could get lucky all the way through and easily get 10cm

[cold stoke]

It could all snow here in stoke 196m above sea level

[Chess01]

Think the boundary will be the m6 but im only 7 miles away from it . Talk about touch and go

It could all snow here in stoke 196m above sea level

im at 160m in newcastle Edited January 13, 2013 by Chess01

[MKN]

Sticking to what i said last night i think the snow line will be east of birmingham looks like the first band will be all snow for all of us then the second band will he a mixture of sleet and snow for western parts of our region and a all snow event for birmingham eastwards i think some places could get lucky all the way through and easily get 10cm

Hopefully your right. The precip seems to be ahead of schedule so far in comparison to the models hopefully the two bands time things around 9pm and 6/9am rather than the second one being in the middle of the day. Could make all the difference

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the snow for tonight could be with us today, moving through earlier than predicted? looks fairly heavy as well

[XENA]

The excitement in here...... i must, must get my ironing done today I'm agreeing with the others i think anywhere East of Birmingham will be fine as regards snow....

[lesta_snow]

Just woken up to it snowing very lightly with a nice little dusting!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not to mention the snowfest for the weekend, deepest FI at this point

[Chess01]

Hopefully your right. The precip seems to be ahead of schedule so far in comparison to the models hopefully the two bands time things around 9pm and 6/9am rather than the second one being in the middle of the day. Could make all the difference

very true if we can stop them from going into midday then it might keep the temp down