The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[Strider]

NAE shows things to be pretty marginal, especially for W Mids

[MKN]

Gfs has definately improved on the 06z

[kev238]

Yes def marginal for west midlands, though tonight will be ok for you guys.

[Serendipity]

On the met office phone app, it doesn't show any warnings for warwickshire...

[Supacell]

Not liking GFS or NAE 06z, as both show a brief period of sleet/rain as the heaviest precipitation moves over us tomorrow. Only Lincolnshire from our region guaranteed an all snow event.

UKMO does keep it as snow for a much wider area. Yet again, no certainty. I reckon it will be a case of seeing how things look tomorrow morning. Pity though, i'd much rather be able to get excited about what is coming instead of feeling nervous about it.

[Luke]

I'm 7 miles SW of Birmingham. I hope my location of 160m asl helps.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Luke

[mr benn]

Does anyone know what time the first band of snow is predicted to arrive by approx.

Most weather sites seem to say about 9pm , but when I watched the BBC forecast last night the time was showing 6pm when the snow clouds were over the Midlands.

Anybody like to confirm for Snowangel ?

[Staffordshire]

just woke up looked straight out my window and found a dusting on the ground as i suspected i would do (thanks north sea) Guys seriously now, ignore meto and bbc forecasts, they wont give an accurate forecast of where the snow/rain line will be, best thing to do... wait for the 12z's if they give the westward shift we need then i think we will be all clear but if they dont... eyes to the radar/sky.

[azores92]

The BBC forecast for most of the Midlands is actually very good, keeps 20 miles west of Birmingham eastwards in the snow zone for both bands.

It's encouraging because the Beeb generally put us in sleet or rain even when it's actually snowing out side.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

i think its just to give a margin for error, as i think anywhere west of perhaps wolverhampton is going to struggle imo

[Staffordshire]

Most weather sites seem to say about 9pm , but when I watched the BBC forecast last night the time was showing 6pm when the snow clouds were over the Midlands.

Anybody like to confirm for Snowangel ?

id say light flurries maybe 6pm, but the front 8-9pm

[MKN]

The gfs definately not a downgrade that's for sure supacell the bonus for the midlands is the places wer it does stay as snow could be hit later this evening with one lot, again 9/12 hours later and then again as a Cheshire gap streamer looks like setting up for a while for late Monday.

[Staffordshire]

The gfs definately not a downgrade that's for sure supacell the bonus for the midlands is the places wer it does stay as snow could be hit later this evening with one lot, again 9/12 hours later and then again as a Cheshire gap streamer looks like setting up for a while for late Monday.

cheshire gap seems unlikely? i havent look at charts this morning but wouldnt we be in an E'rly wind flow?

[kev238]

Pretty sure supacell you will be ok given your altitude as well.. Guess you are a bit further west than you would like to be but pretty sure there will be snow from the second band for you.

The met office should update their warnings this morning so will be interesting to see if they think anywhere in the region merits an amber warning.

[snowangel32]

Looks like alot more ppn on the first band later on the 06z so we could get more than predicted, but on the downside the mild sector is bigger again i so hope it goes once it hits the cold.

[MKN]

cheshire gap seems unlikely? i havent look at charts this morning but wouldnt we be in an E'rly wind flow?

Yes from Tues onwards. There's a small window of opportunity 6pm til midnight Monday.

[Supacell]

Thanks guys, I would just like the see the warm sector further west so that the marginality is taken away. Would be nice if ALL of the Midlands could get it too, so that we can be celebrating in here. Maybe we will be by tomorrow.

Regarding a cheshire gap set up, SnowTornado is right and hadn't noticed this myself. By Monday evening and Tuesday we are in a NW'ly flow despite the airmass being from the east. We could actually end up with a snow event Monday night, and by this time it will be cold enough for snow for all

Although snow from the Cheshire gap won't affect all, tends to be good for NW Midlands though.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Supacell

[Staffordshire]

Pretty sure supacell you will be ok given your altitude as well.. Guess you are a bit further west than you would like to be but pretty sure there will be snow from the second band for you.

The met office should update their warnings this morning so will be interesting to see if they think anywhere in the region merits an amber warning.

yeah was just wondering that myself kev, there must be!

Yes from Tues onwards. There's a small window of opportunity 6pm til midnight Monday.

ahh of course! well spotted there mate

[Staffordshire]

Just noticed, on the radar the band has a more N-S orientaion, just wondering if it may stall further west than planned, then trickle southwards throughout the night...

[kev f]

I've woken to a slight dusting too this morning . i am still quietly confident of seeing a good 10cms for me by tomorrow night. hopefully you guys west of brum can get in on the action too and we r all in here tomorrow comparing snow depths

[Chess01]

Cheshire gap streamer is awesome here

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Whats our snow chances here on east coast

[Bolton67]

Skeggy, you are placed very well. With the winds later coming from the east and north east.

[Aamar Farouq]

The NAE for sunday 12pm shows the Front line of precipitation from the South of Northern Ireland to Aberdeen. However the radar suggests precipitation to have cleared this line @ 11am.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Shezale coventry]

Hmm just seen the beeb forecast and the second band of ppn was mainly RAIN for most of the midlands? Maybe the far east midlands staying with all snow so much chopping and changing in each forecast

[azores92]

Hmm just seen the beeb forecast and the second band of ppn was mainly RAIN for most of the midlands? Maybe the far east midlands staying with all snow so much chopping and changing in each forecast

not even that, a wintry mix in the east midlands with an all rain event in the west midlands tomorrow. tonight, however, could deliver a couple of cms in places.