The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[XENA]

It looked fine for the East Mids i just watched Darren Betts forecast. Patchy but still snowy. Anywhere West of the East Mids more sleety/rain. But as the forecast changes within hours there still may be some pleasant surprises

[Aamar Farouq]

Yes the BBC Graphics were real poor overall.

[Stour7]

On raintoday the precip is just reaching Oswestry, be interesting on here shortly :-)

Also worth reading the warning from this site that's just been issued

Alert details:

A frontal system moving southeast over the next 24-36 hours will bump into a cold continental airmass in place across the UK. Outbreaks of sleet and snow are likely to spread southeast across many northern, central and eastern areas by the end of Monday, rain is more likely across western areas and the far south. Sleet and snow will continue to affect eastern areas on Tuesday, though tending to turn more showery and increasingly confined to eastern coasts by Wednesday.

In more detail, an occluded front bringing a band of sleet and snow across the north, falling as rain near western coasts, will spread southeast during Sunday, reaching central areas this evening and the southeast during early Monday morning. Accumulations will vary with passage of the sleet and snow. 5-10cm are possible across the north today, though the sleet and snow will tend to become lighter as it heads southeast, with a few cms possible across central and eastern areas by Monday morning.

Then another band of rain, sleet and snow will follow on Monday, reaching central areas by Midday then arriving across the southeast in the evening. Snow will be confined to central and eastern areas of the UK, with rain or sleet more likely across southern and western areas. Accumulations of up to 5cm are possible, perhaps a further 10 cm over higher ground. The band of snow may intensify as it reaches eastern England tomorrow evening (to the north of London), so there is a risk of some significant accumulation to lower levels too.

Further snow is possible across eastern England Tuesday morning bringing a few more cms in places, before snow turns more showery and becomes increasingly confined to the coasts of East Anglia and SE England by the evening.

There will be a risk of ice developing on untreated surfaces where rain, sleet and snow has fallen, especially during the overnight periods as temperatures fall below freezing.

The public are advised to be aware of the risk of treacherous driving conditions and the risk of travel disruption caused by snow and ice.

[Gord]

Well what ever happens I've seen lying snow now (although it did settle for a time here yesterday morning). Just been with the dog up to Lickey Hills and yesterday's snow is still there. Was stunning up there...although it's stunning up there in any kind of weather really!

Lovely morning around the Black Country. Patches of wintry mist, very frosty, bright sunshine in places coming and going. A real winters day feel out there!

Edited January 13, 2013 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Gfs has definately improved on the 06z

Has improved on 06Z, attention now switching to end of week/weekend, heavy snow for all on Friday then staying cold behind, but next atlantic attack mild wins, all FI though hope the cold hangs on

[Gord]

With regards for tomorrow, think I've seen enough now and I'm expecting sleet and rain for a time here. A shame but to be fair, the forecasts have been saying this all weekend. There has been no switch to pure snow here in any forecast update I've seen (although I do have altitude on my side). But that's OK...because it's not late March and the chances of seeing any decent snow this winter doesn't hang on this event like it would if it was almost Spring.

Plenty to look out for after tomorrow though...so I'm far from downbeat about it all!

Edited January 13, 2013 by Gord

[SL7]

Hey guys,

It snowed in Leicester this morning! At 9.30am I looked out the window and there was powdery snow all over the ground and on cars. I didn't see it snow so must have snowed earlier and it hasn't snowed since. It's all disappeared now.

That's the first snow I've seen since around this time last year (i think)!

Edited January 13, 2013 by SL7

[the lad sharp]

Gawd my nerves can't take this. Man City at home and wondering if it will snow or will it be a damp squib.

[Chunky Flake]

Please God let it snow this week .

[Bolton67]

Just viewed the NMM , shows band of snow coming through (nothing heavy) second band looks to be almost rain. dew points around 0 and temps of +2 and +3

Lets hope it's wrong.

Edited January 13, 2013 by lancs_northants

[cold stoke]

It's not that far away now rain or snow?

[Bolton67]

Second band

http://nwstatic.co.u...4e06377de38566;

Temps

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=nwm;date=20130113;time=06;ext=33;file=nmmuktempnew;sess=4bcfad385b6229c64a4e06377de38566;

Edited January 13, 2013 by lancs_northants

[kev238]

Yes; BBC graphics definitely shifted things further east with regards to the midlands. Still think Nottingham, derby, leicester were in the snow zone but it was a close run thing.

[Polar Maritime]

Looking at the radar we should see some flakes in an hour or two... the front seems to be very slow moving.

Current temp here 1.4c

Dew Point -1.2c

Wind Chill 1.2c East 2mph.

[TonyH]

My usual look at the week ahead:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4544-latest-weekly-weather-guide-monday-14th-to-sunday-20th-january-2013-west-wales-and-the-midlands/

[wizgti]

Met office have updated their weather warnings looking a bit better for me (Evesham). We'll see what happens. Also metweather are predicting 10 cm of snow-sleet-snow tomorrow.

[Staffordshire]

Im ignoring meto tbh, they have me down for heavy snow at 3am

[Adzyy]

I have never seen the MetO change my forecast so much before.

More heavy snow symbols have been added, and the sleet has been delayed to the 6pm mark going by their forecast.

I'm strangely confident about this, but it's still going to be marginal.

[Staffordshire]

I have never seen the MetO change my forecast so much before.

More heavy snow symbols have been added, and the sleet has been delayed to the 6pm mark going by their forecast.

I'm strangely confident about this, but it's still going to be marginal.

im also strangely confident deep down, even though the models and forecasts are sugesting otherwise! one thing that has boosted my confidence is that the front is coming earlier than forecast which will allow temps to cool down more between the two fronts which will make conditions more favourable. Edited January 13, 2013 by Staffordshire

[MKN]

I think the met office forecasts sum it up for my area tommorow...

6am = light snow

9am = sleet

Midday = heavy snow

3pm = light rain.

So basically anything can happen. Gonna be a case of despite what the models show or BBC forecasts, no-one will really know until its on the doorstep.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/hinckley_forecast_weather.html

Edited January 13, 2013 by SnowTornado

[lesta_snow]

I think the met office forecasts sum it up for my area tommorow...

6am = light snow

9am = sleet

Midday = heavy snow

3pm = light rain.

So basically anything can happen. Gonna be a case of despite what the models show or BBC forecasts, no-one will really know until its on the doorstep.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Look at Leicester not even far from Hinckley and we're looking like snow for pretty much all of it. So surely it's going to be like you say see what happens when it actually comes.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Im ignoring meto tbh, they have me down for heavy snow at 3am

heavy snow for me for 4 hours in the night, light snow starting at 7pm, sleety mix tomorrow with rain in evening, still expecting a thaw

[Gord]

If I think back to some of our greatest snow events of the past few years, I can't think of many where the forecast was correct (not fault of Met Office or BBC as it's such a hard job pinpointing snow...needed to add that because this isn't MO bashing!)

4th Feb 2012: Was supposed to be ruined by a mild sector...in reality just a little bit of drizzle on the end.

18th Dec 2010: We were under warnings but for nowhere near the amounts we ended up getting.

5th January 2010; The forecast only came good hours before it started. It was looking dry with us maybe getting clipped only 24-48 hours beforehand.

2nd February 2009: Enhanced by a flow from the Wash that just never gave up!

Then I think of the snow events we should have had and were warned for.

9th February 2012: "Stolen (!)" by the East Midlands

16th December 2011: Turned to snow far too late to get anything decent.

27th/28th/29th/30th (can't remember which one!) December 2009 (or 2008?): Was all rain, no cold air managed to dig in.

I know the MO and the BBC are working as best as they can...but here's a quote from the great physicist Richard Feynman which I think is relevant right now:

"I think nature's imagination is so much greater than mans that she's never going to let us relax!"

So there you go...in a nutshell....who knows what will happen! As I said earlier, it's later on the week I'm interested in anyway!

Edited January 13, 2013 by Gord

[MKN]

Look at Leicester not even far from Hinckley and we're looking like snow for pretty much all of it. So surely it's going to be like you say see what happens when it actually comes.

Lol hopefully Hinckley 108m compared to Leicester 74m will help us get the same despite leics being ever so slightly better placed.

Www.earthtools.org for anyone wanting height info

[Bishop Brennan]

Latest NAE charts firming up more & more on the overnight snow event:

However tomorrow's event is looking ever more marginal bar for those in the North and East of the region:

Bish

Edited January 13, 2013 by Bishop Brennan