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Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

The watcher

By The watcher
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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

gfs gone of on one again. fi t96 but ukmo under cut t120 keeping the cold going with high pressure over iceland, scandinavia.

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sundog Seasoned

sundog

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted

hi sundog id say t120 is fi with so much model chaos. even t96 some were saying was fi. gfs 12z big upgrade for us for cold.

Hi stormforce, i would think fi is probably more like t96,dont think ive ever seen such model chaos before. I wonder what the next ECM will bring. It could be a very interesting weekend of model watching,well lets hope so

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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

Hi stormforce, i would think fi is probably more like t96,dont think ive ever seen such model chaos before. I wonder what the next ECM will bring. It could be a very interesting weekend of model watching,well lets hope so

hi sundog, very tense model viewing coming up. hopefully ecm will back up gfs and ukmo. we shall wait with baited breathe.

whoo hooo 3000 posts.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

It wolle be cold enough for snow next week but will there be precipitation.

As for Sunday into Monday i'm going watch the lamposts and see what happens.

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John Cox Enthusiast

John Cox

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
Posted (edited)

ukmo t144 is really really good.for cold and snow. upgrades tonight so far.

Congrats on your 3k posts.

Anyone In Dublin or the East coast remember this. Jan 9th 1982. The biggest snow event ever !

http://www.wetterzen...00119820109.gif

Rrea00119820109.gif

Now have a look at UKMO today: T 144

UW144-21.GIF?11-17

Quite similar I think

Edited by John Cox
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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted

Folks sorry for being negative on this wee post but i'm not so positive after this run. Rain/sleet/rain/sleet is all i see! Maybe we are trying to clutch to many straws!

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sundog Seasoned

sundog

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted

Yes john very similar looking charts hope that ukmo chart comes to fruition.

I remember that date well i was 8 at the time ,it just kept snowing and snowingsmile.png

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John Cox Enthusiast

John Cox

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
Posted

Yes john very similar looking charts hope that ukmo chart comes to fruition.

I remember that date well i was 8 at the time ,it just kept snowing and snowingsmile.png

36 hours of continuous snow and 6 feet snow drifts , it was yummie.

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skywatcher Apprentice

skywatcher

Posted
  • Location: Costa Blanca, Spain
  • Location: Costa Blanca, Spain
Posted

Folks sorry for being negative on this wee post but i'm not so positive after this run. Rain/sleet/rain/sleet is all i see! Maybe we are trying to clutch to many straws!.

No snow yet imho but the situation is highly fluid still.
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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

Congrats on your 3k posts.

Anyone In Dublin or the East coast remember this. Jan 9th 1982. The biggest snow event ever !

http://www.wetterzen...00119820109.gif

Rrea00119820109.gif

Now have a look at UKMO today: T 144

UW144-21.GIF?11-17

Quite similar I think

uncannily similar john.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

we really need the 528 dam line and at least -5hpa air for snow to fall to low levels. I think hpa means upper air temps. I have experienced temps of -1c, -2c -3c and it still rained, reason being, no 528 dam line and the upper air temp (hpa) wasn't cold enough (below -5hpa). the reason for the higher upper air temp to be lower than -5hpa coming from the north,north west is it's coming off the atlantic ocean, so in other words a long sea track, which means the air temps being modified to less cold solution.

now I am also aware that the hpa (upper air temp) can be above -5hpa, approx -2c, -3c if weather fronts are coming from the east, a lesser sea track. (irish sea) and from a much drier source, Britain and Europe, also the the 528 dam line doesnt need to be present either. but for playing it safe's its better that we have the 528 dam line and -5hpa or preferably lower over us for pure snow to fall to low levels.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm722.gif

this chart is ukmo ooz. (this morning) at 72hrs.

this will not produce snow, as you can see the 528 dam line is in the irish sea in a vertical line from cornwall to central scotland.

also the weather front is coming in of the atlantic and that would modify the air temp. highest hills and mountains could see some wintry stuff.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack2a.gif

with this fax chart there could be snow getting down to lower levels.

as you can see the 528 dam line is cutting into north of ireland which would introduce colder upper air temps.

i dont think ground temps are much of an issue, with recent frosts and cold temps lately.

just noticed quite a few new members recently. so just trying to be of help.

watcher/ void. feel free to correct or comment. your knowledge is much better.

Good stuff!

Just a few things, the upper air level I think you're referring to is the 850hPa level (about 1500m above sea level). As you mentioned, -5C here is the very least we'd want, but more ideally it would be below -7C. Under a strong easterly flow (dew point below 0C, keeps the snow flakes cold through evaporation) and low pressure (so the 850hPa layer is closer to the surface, i.e., less time for the snow to melt as it falls!) we can have 850hPa temps a little higher than -5C and still get snow on occasion.

I live in Wicklow. will let you know if it snows! (altitude 700 feet approx)

Welcome Gentiana!

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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted

I need Prozac!! BBC 6.30 weather now showing snow for us on Sunday and In the north on Monday! I await our local weather now ti see what they think. Barra Best isn't my favourite forecaster but! Lol

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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted (edited)

ecm good out to t96, not bad after that, more a cold frosty high setting up. ukmo pick of the 12zs today, if you want snow that is.

Edited by stormforce 10
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Su Campu Apprentice

Su Campu

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted (edited)

We need more like 522 dm to be almost sure of snow to all levels, but a better indicator is the 850-1000 hPa thickness, which homes in on the most important layer of the atmosphere for snow. Less than 1290 m would be my indicator for snow. Remember though that thickness is not only a function of the mean temperature of the layer but also of the moisture content. For the same mean temperature, a drier layer will have a lower thickness than a more humid one.

T850 of -8 °C is usually a good starting point for snow but there are many more factors that must also be consulted too, such as surface pressure, low-level inversions, day vs night, etc. With a solid cold pool already in place we can and have had had snow with much warmer T850s.

Edited by Su Campu
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

We need more like 522 dm to be almost sure of snow to all levels, but a better indicator is the 850-1000 hPa thickness, which homes in on the most important layer of the atmosphere for snow. Less than 1290 m would be my indicator for snow. Remember though that thickness is not only a function of the mean temperature of the layer but also of the moisture content. For the same mean temperature, a drier layer will have a lower thickness than a more humid one.

T850 of -8 °C is usually a good starting point for snow but there are many more factors that must also be consulted too, such as surface pressure, low-level inversions, day vs night, etc. With a solid cold pool already in place we can and have had had snow with much warmer T850s.

Welcome Su, nice first post! Venturing out from boards.ie I seesmile.png

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Beaufort12 Apprentice

Beaufort12

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,windstorms
  • Location: .
Posted (edited)

Good to see such knowledgeable posts on here folks - thanks to those who have the knowledge and are sharing it with us less well initiated.

BBC NI weather hinted at a few cm of snow for high ground on Sunday - still think it will upgrade more!!

Which areas are most prone to see snow in Ireland. Is there a decent chance of it falling at lower levels in the North west?

Thanks

Edited by Beaufort12
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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

updated faxfor monday. 528 dam line shifted further west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.gif

I think some parts of north of ireland could do well for wintry precip.

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snowstorm445 Apprentice

snowstorm445

Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
Posted (edited)

Certainly opportunities for the East Coast and Northern Ireland if the charts verify. Drier and probably milder further south and west, with uppers probably too warm to generate snow.

Edited by snowstorm445
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

Unfortunately based on current output there is 0% chance of any disruptive snowfall to low levels across ireland over the next 5 days. Maybe a few cm's of snow for higher ground but nothing much.

Ah well, maybe the SSW will provide more opportunites later on in the month.

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