Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[markok]

I think we can safely say that the dublin and wicklow mountains are gonna get a hiding of snow. hopefully low levels will get some too but it's too hard to say at the minute.

I'm in Dublin south west.

[ronan]

Well the latest BBC forecast gives us rain for Sunday even though temps will be sitting at 1 degree!! What a load of crap!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by ronan

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I still maintain Ronan that favourable areas will see some white stuff!

What the hell is this zero warning points thing about on my avatar??

[Gentiana]

I live in Wicklow. will let you know if it snows! (altitude 700 feet approx)

[stormforce 10]

looks like the north of ireland could get some snow on monday evening.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack2a.gif

look where the 528 dam line is. as well a cold front pushing south.

I am going by the fax chart at the moment with the models in such disarray.

a little bit of human input does no harm. there is also talk of a westward correction of the cold air, in the mod thread.

Edited January 11, 2013 by stormforce 10

[stormforce 10]

we really need the 528 dam line and at least -5hpa air for snow to fall to low levels. I think hpa means upper air temps. I have experienced temps of -1c, -2c -3c and it still rained, reason being, no 528 dam line and the upper air temp (hpa) wasn't cold enough (below -5hpa). the reason for the higher upper air temp to be lower than -5hpa coming from the north,north west is it's coming off the atlantic ocean, so in other words a long sea track, which means the air temps being modified to less cold solution.

now I am also aware that the hpa (upper air temp) can be above -5hpa, approx -2c, -3c if weather fronts are coming from the east, a lesser sea track. (irish sea) and from a much drier source, Britain and Europe, also the the 528 dam line doesnt need to be present either. but for playing it safe's its better that we have the 528 dam line and -5hpa or preferably lower over us for pure snow to fall to low levels.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm722.gif

this chart is ukmo ooz. (this morning) at 72hrs.

this will not produce snow, as you can see the 528 dam line is in the irish sea in a vertical line from cornwall to central scotland.

also the weather front is coming in of the atlantic and that would modify the air temp. highest hills and mountains could see some wintry stuff.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack2a.gif

with this fax chart there could be snow getting down to lower levels.

as you can see the 528 dam line is cutting into north of ireland which would introduce colder upper air temps.

i dont think ground temps are much of an issue, with recent frosts and cold temps lately.

just noticed quite a few new members recently. so just trying to be of help.

watcher/ void. feel free to correct or comment. your knowledge is much better.

Edited January 11, 2013 by stormforce 10

[mountain shadow]

Pomeroy always gets snow up on Waltons Mountain!

Really is hard to call for Sunday and Monday. Some altitude will help for sure.

[markok]

cheers stormforce, nice imput there. i'd say the models will change further still so hopefully we can get that cold to shift west.

[stormforce 10]

Pomeroy always gets snow up on Waltons Mountain!

Really is hard to call for Sunday and Monday. Some altitude will help for sure.

sorry mountain shadow. forgot about you. good input.

[ronan]

We need more input like this Storm! Thanks

[stormforce 10]

cheers stormforce, nice imput there. i'd say the models will change further still so hopefully we can get that cold to shift west.

cheers mardok. heres hoping for tons of snow.

[stormforce 10]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

here is another chart. this ecm 00z chart. 96hrs.

this is for tuesday. again 528 dam line over parts north of ireland. possible precip as snow.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Nice work Storm

Good night Mountain Shadow!!!

[Watsy]

The mods turn off inessential features like location at times of high traffic because of bandwidth.

Thanks skywatcher, wasn't sure if I'd changed something my side.

[stormforce 10]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn722.png

big correction westwards on the gfs 12z chart for monday. -5hpa air over most of ireland with a northerly wind.

Edited January 11, 2013 by stormforce 10

[ronan]

Thank the lord!! Everything further west on this run so far. Monday could be interesting!

[stormforce 10]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn724.png

a bit of precip there for the north of ireland could be snow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

upgrades on gfs 12z.this chart for tuesday keeps the cold goin.looks like high pressure developing around iceland which is good for us cold lovers.

Edited January 11, 2013 by stormforce 10

[stormforce 10]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

much much better by gfs 12z again the -5hpa air pushes westward over most of ireland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1204.png

the only problem, no precip over ireland. sneaky suspicion, convective snow showers on the east coast though.

[sundog]

Nice upgrade for ireland with the correction westwards,lets hope its the start of many,well i live in hope.

[markok]

if there's an easterly wind blowing, east coast will get snow showers. northerly wind, north and west will do well. hard to know what's gonna happen but great upgrade. least we know the gfs is trending towards colder every run so lets hope next run is even better. still time for monday to be upgraded

[stormforce 10]

Nice upgrade for ireland with the correction westwards,lets hope its the start of many,well i live in hope.

hi sundog id say t120 is fi with so much model chaos. even t96 some were saying was fi. gfs 12z big upgrade for us for cold.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I am telling ye guys upgrades on the way - have been banging on about this the last 2 days

[Neiller22]

Still need another good shift westwards I feel but at least it's a start. Still a long way to go for the whole of Ireland. Does seem a bit better for eastern areas in the north though but still need more of a shift to the west. Which could easily happen in the next run I feel.

[stormforce 10]

I am telling ye guys upgrades on the way - have been banging on about this the last 2 days

absolutely, and ukmo in agreement too upto 96hrs.

[ronan]

Can't take anymore of the crap in that model thread. Somebody just keep me updated!