Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[mountain shadow]

I would say that further north and east you are the better but still marginal as ever.

Need more information on upper air temps, wet bulbs etc...

[bobbarley]

Unfortunately in Ballycastle I'm too far North and East to see any snowfall, too close to coast! Require -8 uppers at least!

[stormforce 10]

haven't seen a lake this winter, actualyy since december 2011.

[Baltic Regions]

Unfortunately in Ballycastle I'm too far North and East to see any snowfall, too close to coast! Require -8 uppers at least!

Welcome BobBarley. Any reference to the musical legend there?

haven't seen a lake this winter, actualyy since december 2011.

The lake effect gave some serious dumpings on the east coast! One of those would go down nicely!

Lying snow up at my in-laws. Very cold and murky here all day. Not a sight of the sun!

[Beaufort12]

Starting to think Ireland won't see any snow at all. From my experience we need to see a full "blast" to get proper snow and I can't see that given the current set up.

We may drift along the boundary and maybe will get lucky but it's clutching at straws that are getting shorter by the minute. It's frustrating but with each passing "Winter" it becomes more the norm. The two cold spells we had a few years back were simply a freak IMO. I live in Donegal and we usually see a couple of days of snow a winter maybe two or three times but I can't even see that happening this year. I know I can't predict what it's going to be like for the rest of the Winter but any chance of snow on the horizon seems to get "watered" down as the time approaches. I'm a weather enthusiast but I've got to admit I never wasted my life as much as I did this week from watching the Charts. It isn't because I didn't see my desirable outcome it is the constant fluctuations and non agreement between the models. Every single chart of the previous five days has been as worthless as a piece of paper.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Beaufort12

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Cant agree with that Beaufort even the Farming forecast on RTE wouldn't commit to what the weather would e this week - next Friday could be interesting....

[Beaufort12]

It will get watered down with time as per usual. You could be right but like I said I 100pc believe it won't snow,of any worth anyway. Only my opinion though

I seen the bbc weather for the week ahead. It gave rain for N.Ireland of Friday with temps of 5degrees

Edited January 13, 2013 by Beaufort12

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well I am a glass half full person and believe we will hit lucky with one of these battle ground events!

[Crispo]

I agree very much so Pom.... Late Thur into Fri could be our time. Was suprised with the wintry mix this morning.

[ronan]

All we need is is a shift west this week and bang! It will happen! Nobody knows what's gonna happen after 72hrs! The models are struggling on a daily basis never mind 5 days out. Beaufort I completely agree with what you saying with regards to being let down!! Hopefully we see something soon!

[sundog]

i really hope the cold air can push west. its like we are so near yet so far. it kind of feels like we are not invited to the party,but who knows maybe we will gate crash it yet,time will tell.

[keithlucky]

i really hope the cold air can push west. its like we are so near yet so far. it kind of feels like we are not invited to the party,but who knows maybe we will gate crash it yet,time will tell.

Met office forecasts showers across Ireland monday becoming wintry after dark good luck!send them to Wales.

[bobbarley]

From what the more experienced forecasters are saying our best chance may be later in the month when systems come from the north or north east, this week will be poor as usual

[Cavehill Snow]

I have been reading Model discusions and viewing the charts every day on this site since mid November - sometimes I feel that I've wasted so much time as there has been no real snow (apart from todays few flakes that is), other times I get some enjoyment viewing speculative snowfests on the 500hp charts which unfortunately have yet not come to fruition.

I have been mad about snow since I was a kid, i must be getting older now though as a few years back I would be kicking the cat the number of times promising charts have disappeared as T"0" approaches whereas I'm more resigned to disappointments this year!

Nothing scientific to my thoughts, but I feel that we may miss out this year, though would love to be wrong. Lots of positive forecasts regarding the stratosphere should still give us some hope, so will be on this board for another few weeks.

[BIG LAD]

well temps maxed out at 3c today then fell back to 1.4c earlier but on the rise again now 2.4c. just cant see us getting cold enough this week for anything other than rain/sleet and maybe some wet snow.

[The watcher]

Ireland is a very hard place to get sustained cold into, it's very rare here. Last 2 I remember were 2010 and 1995. Other times have been a 2/3 day spell. Don't get me wrong, it's great to see the snow, but no point if it's not going to settle for more than 24 hours.

Unfortunately this spell over the next 5 days is not of that type for us, any snow will melt away in 24 hours or less (apart from highest peaks). I wouldn't however write off the winter yet, we just need that HP to be over Greenland proper, bringing in a strong Northerly, then for it to either join/stretch East to Scandi and bring in a NE/East spell second. The coldest spells in Ireland usually start with a strong cold flow and then an anticyclonic spell and lying snow.

[Beaufort12]

Ireland is a very hard place to get sustained cold into, it's very rare here. Last 2 I remember were 2010 and 1995. Other times have been a 2/3 day spell. Don't get me wrong, it's great to see the snow, but no point if it's not going to settle for more than 24 hours.

Unfortunately this spell over the next 5 days is not of that type for us, any snow will melt away in 24 hours or less (apart from highest peaks). I wouldn't however write off the winter yet, we just need that HP to be over Greenland proper, bringing in a strong Northerly, then for it to either join/stretch East to Scandi and bring in a NE/East spell second. The coldest spells in Ireland usually start with a strong cold flow and then an anticyclonic spell and lying snow.

In December 2009 and December 2010 In Donegal we had two prolonged cold spells. Just saying u forgot to mention 2009. Ah yeah this weeks going to be a load of nonsense too. I've resigned myself to that fact now. No more chasing models for me

[The watcher]

No correction West on the 00z GFS, things probably more East slightly. -5c line hugs East coast for about 48 hours but beyond that it's back to same old. Back to the drawing board for us in terms of looking for snowfall chances beyond day 5.

Looking now for the first possible signs of a change in pattern to low heights in Scandi and heights to our NW, sick of the Easterly chances. Just a Northerly will do.

[Beaufort12]

Is the met office run not better for us though? Latest from met.ie for Tomorrow

A very frosty icy start to tomorrow Tuesday. Beginning mostly dry with sunny spells. However cloud and rain will push into much of Munster and west Connacht later in the morning and early afternoon, extending northeastwards into to most other areas later in the evening or early tomorrow night, with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at that stage. East Ulster however should escape dry.

Could Donegal/Tyrone see some snow from this?

Thanks

[rory o gorman]

The western polar vortex drops in the Atlantic albeit a modified flow i will take squally sleet increasing snow (-6 upper\ good WBFL) showers after 3 months in this oven western Australia.

[mountain shadow]

As ever things are marginal at the end of the week as the Atlantic moves under the block.

Anyone with a Bit of height should be excited by the potential. Thr further North and east will be nearer the cold air.

All very messy and hard to predict though.

[gingercat]

Well so far this morning top temp is 3c and we have had snow and sleet in Newtownabbey but nothing lying.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Potential for Wednesday???

[stormforce 10]

its gonna be marginal who gets snow and who doesnt. if you get snow fair play, if you dont better luck next time.

rather have this type of weather than the mild mush we got after xmas.

nice bright sunny day here and quite cold.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Anybody want to disect the charts for our back yard as the MT has its usual South East England bias