Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[Downburst]

It's much better, but still marginal at sea level Saturday, Monday surface temp does not suggest snow fields. I'm expecting action from Monday, but will be very happy if it delivers earlier. Met eireann not as much as a flake 😜

[Downburst]

Something vet odd here, look at the temp drop in 3 hours, not possible that.

[ronan]

That's some drop Downburst! Hopefully another slider next week and cold undercutting! All to play for!

[Beaufort12]

DownBurst that temp drop is indeed possible,If it is snowing or cloudy @15.00 then clear @18.00 with snow lying it's plausible

One example would be back in December 2010,it was -2/3 at st.Angelo's in Fermanagh at midnight with snow and come 1am the temp dropped to -12

[Downburst]

That's some drop Downburst! Hopefully another slider next week and cold undercutting! All to play for!

Well if it is too good to be truce, it's not truce, can't happen, day after tomorrow stuff that, this run has to be banned after this, bad wiring don't you know.

[mountain shadow]

I expect a complete re-write of The Met Office severe weather warnings is currently underway.

People slagging off Met.ie but the UK Met are not convering themselves in glory. Seems they are too reliant on the model output and don't use experience to help with there forecasts.

[Downburst]

DownBurst that temp drop is indeed possible,If it is snowing or cloudy @15.00 then clear @18.00 with snow lying it's plausible

One example would be back in December 2010,it was -2/3 at st.Angelo's in Fermanagh at midnight with snow and come 1am the temp dropped to -12

Ok, perhaps I'm wrong, the front does move over truce, but go to 3 next day? Is that melt? Either way, looking like snow.

I expect a complete re-write of The Met Office severe weather warnings is currently underway.

People slagging off Met.ie but the UK Met are not convering themselves in glory. Seems they are too reliant on the model output and don't use experience to help with there forecasts.

the internet age is catching lots of people with their pants down. The met offices are going to have to adapt to instant information. We are harder to please Edited January 16, 2013 by Downburst

[bobbarley]

Metoffice only update yellow warnings once/day in the morning around 11. Orange or red more often, as this is marginal definitely won't get an orange warning unless they're buried in a snow drift.

[Beaufort12]

I'm not sure Downburst. I'm just saying it's possible for temps to drop that quick with snow cover and clear skies

There does seem to be a half decent chance of getting snow at some stage over the weekend/start of next week

Edited January 16, 2013 by Beaufort12

[mountain shadow]

Anyone watch the NI forecast after the BBC 1 news?

Basically she was saying that yes there was weather warning for Rain on Friday but that it was coming up against colder air. For the moment it looks like snow for the hills, but stay tuned to the forecast!!

She was not confident of that forecast at all.

Metoffice only update yellow warnings once/day in the morning around 11. Orange or red more often, as this is marginal definitely won't get an orange warning unless they're buried in a snow drift.

Nope, they can update them as when they feel like.

They will probably wait until tomorrow though as they will have a further set of runs to peruse.

[Beaufort12]

I checked out channel4 weather's "Snow risk" chart earlier today. At best it showed a 20pc chance at certain times on Friday

However,now it has upgraded it to 60pc chance for certain times on friday. Nothing of any great substance but obviously a step in the right direction

http://www.channel4.com/weather/

[mountain shadow]

Updated at 10pm tonight

:-)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=fiveDay

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Did I not say keep the faith folks

[Neiller22]

If the runs stay as they are or shift further west we will have a snow warning as mountain shadow said. That I have no doubt. Sleepless night now ahead !

[mountain shadow]

You did Pom. What a rollercoaster of a day's model watching. I've been up and down more times than a Union Flag over Belfast City Hall. ;-().

Who knows what the morning will bring, will probably push the precipitation back into the Atlantic!

[Cavehill Snow]

Metoffice only update yellow warnings once/day in the morning around 11. Orange or red more often, as this is marginal definitely won't get an orange warning unless they're buried in a snow drift.

Whilst it is frustrating that we would hope to see tonights improvements in the runs reflected in changes to warnings, I suppose it makes some sense. With 4 x GPS, 2 x ECM, UKMO, GEM, etc model runs every day and models changing from run to run, they be changing their warnings every couple of hours and make look even more silly than what some people already think of them

[Downburst]

You did Pom. What a rollercoaster of a day's model watching. I've been up and down more times than a Union Flag over Belfast City Hall. ;-().

Who knows what the morning will bring, will probably push the precipitation back into the Atlantic!

watching the Nolan show now, all I can say is good job I have a job in the morning, not like the cohort on that show. I think it would be cheaper to send everyone on a foreign holiday, and I don't mean Benidorm. People need to open their horizons, I have more English friends and connections as do most Dubliners than Belfast people, what's all this Protestantism Catholicism about the world will never know. What a dreary place.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Oh Christ don't go there Downburst!!

MS - I laughed out loud at that!!

I hear these value burgers tescos are nice low in fat but full of shergar

[mountain shadow]

The BBC weather forecasts have not been changed to reflect the changing situation unless The Met Office are choosing to ignore the western shift and stalling of the front.

[Cavehill Snow]

Last night it looked like half the island would definitely have snow though it would likely turn back to rain for most. Tonight we have no definite forecast for snow anywhere but with potential chance of a rain to snow event for the ulster & east coast. I hope it turns for the better (all parts for snow) tomorrow, though at what stage do the charts settle on one solution?

Every day the 0z charts & 6z charts push everything east and we lose our chance of snow, then later the 12z & 18z charts bring ebverything further west and renew our chance of snow. Which will be correct?

Projected precititation levels are very high (20-40mm which if it was all snow would be the equivalent 10 -20 inches) - so if we get few hours of snow at least, we could get good levels of lying snow - unless of course we get wet slushy snow in which you find it hard to get any depth away from high ground.

[snowydog]

Gosh the situation changes so fast !

[stormforce 10]

must be a record tonight for people on this forum. 2454 at 10 pm.

met eirann's outlook looks a wee bit rosier tonight, i see falla of sleet and snow and wintery showers mentioned.

[snowydog]

No real acknowledgement of snow from UTV in tonight's news and weather bulletin... just possibility of some wintry showers...

Channel 4 have just updated to heavy snow for some parts of N.I throughout Friday!

[ronan]

I'm done for the night. Tempted to set the alarm for the 00's but sack it I'll hopefully waken in the morning to find everything another 100 miles west! Lol

[Earth Wind and Snow]

I think Met Eireann are right to hold off on mentioning snow until they are sure. I often find that while they will mention a 'risk of snow' on their website, they do not mention the word 'snow' on TV unless they expect something significant. A presenter just needs to mention that there is 'a chance of rain turning to wet snow for 3 minutes' on TV and before you know it, the public many of whom only half listens to the forecast and do not understand much of the graphics anyway, hears the mention of 'snow' and start exclaiming to all that will listen that 'they are giving snow tomorrow'. When the inevitable rain falls from the sky the next day, Met Eireann are bashed as not having a clue.

As for the weather itself, I feel we are unluckily once again just on the westward edge for Fridays event although some models are correcting the snow line further westwards this evening so it would not take much to produce some snow for eastern parts of Ireland later Friday and possibly in to Saturday - we need to see the block being a little stronger again on tomorrow mornings models with the fronts a little further west - if this happens some eastern areas could see some of the while stuff. If not there are further possibilities for Sunday and beyond if ECM for example is on the money, however again the details will change before then maybe for the worse but hopefully this time for the better

After last winters let down - we here on this Isle deserve a good dumping..............here's hoping we all get what we want over the next few weeks

EWS