Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[Ian Brown]

I haven't got time to read thread today. So someone please please do me a quick summary

Happy Christmas

Katie

Wet and mild Katie, especially mild on Friday and Saturday in the South.

A brief colder WNW interlude for later in the weekend, before the zonal train rolls on into next week and beyond.

[ChartViewer]

Wet and mild Katie, especially mild on Friday and Saturday in the South.

A brief colder WNW interlude for later in the weekend, before the zonal train rolls on into next week and beyond.

Before turning much much colder in mid Jan due to strat events and staying cold until March......Well we can hope

[Panayiotis]

Wet and mild Katie, especially mild on Friday and Saturday in the South.

A brief colder WNW interlude for later in the weekend, before the zonal train rolls on into next week and beyond.

I dont see this run as zonal, zonal means the jet is straight running west to east, accompanied by a strong PV, yes lows are barreling into us after next weekend but the flow isnt straight, and as they hit the high pressure over Europe they stall and move NE. After a couple of days of this an incoming low (east of America) ridges the Azores high north, settling things down. This seems to be the case from the GFS in last couple of days.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Methuselah]

Are we in need of a new definition: one that covers a spell westerly-dominated weather with rain interspersed with showers plus average or above temperatures, that avoids using the word 'zonal'?

Any ideas?

[IDO]

I dont see this run as zonal, zonal means the jet is straight running west to east, accompanied by a strong PV, yes lows are barreling into us after next weekend but the flow isnt straight, and as they hit the high pressure over Europe they stall and move NE. After a couple of days of this an incoming low (east of America) ridges the Azores high north, settling things down. This seems to be the case from the GFS in last couple of days.

Sorry its a zonal as it gets. You are never going to get a true west to east jet. It will always have kinks. The synoptics are classic zonal, not even cool zonal for most of the run. At T384: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121224/12/384/npsh500.png

No sign of a pattern change there. The zonal train may slow down with temporary ridges or troughs over the UK, but full speed ahead soon after with any amplification flattened out. Will take some shifting from this.

[Tim Bland]

The time frame at this time of year is 96 hours, with a max of 144 hours.

We have the exact same thing every year, and yes it's fun to model watch, but be careful what you say, I have seen a lot of people cling to things they

clearly have no idea what they are talking about, just parroting other people.

Still, it's no surprise that this year is turing out to be 'almost' a carbon copy of last year.

It is very sad indeed we have to now look to middle and back end January for anything of note for England. Scotland will always get it's snow over the mountains

but this is the first year where not 1 flake as fallen over my home in 17 years, inside 12 months. Global Warming? hahahaha sorry

That's a bit of a contradiction! You can't look any further than 144hrs......followed by.. "We have to now look to the middle and back end of January"

[karyo]

What difference does it make if it is zonal or not?

The main thing is that the wind is coming from the west/southwest and the temperature is mild to average at best!

Karyo

[Panayiotis]

What difference does it make if it is zonal or not?

The main thing is that the wind is coming from the west/southwest and the temperature is mild to average at best!

Karyo

This is what I understand as zonal:

Someone may class this as zonal:

But heres the jet for it:

I dont mind if anyone can give me some constructive criticism?

Edited December 24, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Uncle_Barty]

All I want for Christmas is a Greenland High!!!

you'll get one allright. For three months......

...beginning May 15th!

[Bobby]

GFS 12z has more high pressure ridging from the south than the 06z. No trace of cold though.

It seems the strength of this low off Newfoundland will have a say in how much ridging we get from the south, maybe into a mid-Atlantic ridge. Deeper and we get some WAA into the Atlantic, weaker and things may stay flat.

I think most likely is a ridge settling things down over mainly the south for a few days before things flatten again.

A very wet end to December that's for sure though.

[karyo]

GFS 12z has more high pressure ridging from the south than the 06z. No trace of cold though.

It seems the strength of this low off Newfoundland will have a say in how much ridging we get from the south, maybe into a mid-Atlantic ridge. Deeper and we get some WAA into the Atlantic, weaker and things may stay flat.

I think most likely is a ridge settling things down over mainly the south for a few days before things flatten again.

A very wet end to December that's for sure though.

That low cannot realistically deepen much more though

Karyo

[Panayiotis]

Maybe he means, it could do this from member number 3 and 19:

However thats only 10% of the ensembles showing this at 192hrs.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Froze were the Days]

Pretty dreadful 12z GFS and even worse towards FI....that's the lot from me and a merry Xmas to everyone on this forum, will be back in a few days or so's time but can't see anything changing in 'the hunt for cold'.

[Iceaxecrampon]

"They said there'll be snow at Christmas,they said there'll be peace on earth - but instead it just kept on raining,a veil of tears for the virgin birth"

- Greg Lake 1977

So true.

Shortlived WNW for cold if anyones interested....

All the best everyone.

Ian

[Summer Sun]

I know its FI but GFS remain keen on building pressure from the south in early January this is the 2nd day running its shown this

The first attempt fails after 2 days

But it quickly builds again

A very promising trend for 2013 that's for sure those flood hit areas will be praying this happens hopefully in early 2013 high pressure will be more in control over Spain and France this will slowly edge into the UK sending the low pressure systems north giving the far north of Scotland the rain and helping England and wales to dry out

Edited December 24, 2012 by Gavin.

[karyo]

Maybe he means, it could do this from member number 3 and 19:

However thats only 10% of the ensembles showing this at 192hrs.

Even those ensembles don't look great but better than the operational. As Nick posted earlier, the models moved away from the idea of that low slowing down to allow an Atlantic ridge to develop.

It seems we have no luck this year!

Karyo

[Panayiotis]

Even those ensembles don't look great but better than the operational. As Nick posted earlier, the models moved away from the idea of that low slowing down to allow an Atlantic ridge to develop.

It seems we have no luck this year!

Karyo

It seems so, hopefully we get to see something to look forward to when the New Year comes! Edited December 24, 2012 by Panayiotis

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes indeed I take mild sw flow with azores heights any day.

The models are consistent on keeping things average to above later in fi.

I think this winter needs to be forgotten for the huge Scandinavia block that came up against the Atlantic which won hands down.

Time to look towards something like a strat warming event but I'm not confident it will happen in time.

[towbar0]

"They said there'll be snow at Christmas,they said there'll be peace on earth - but instead it just kept on raining,a veil of tears for the virgin birth"

- Greg Lake 1977

So true.

Shortlived WNW for cold if anyones interested....

All the best everyone.

Ian

Merry Christmas. XXX to all XXX

[ChartViewer]

It seems so, hopefully we get to see something to look forward to when the New Year comes!

My nervousness when trying to spot a change in fi regarding the strat warming event is it was mentioned in the In depth we maybe looking at a scandi high.......Which to my eyes is so much more risky than a gh...............Would much prefer heights building into the atlantic and then North into greenland.............Just hope we do not end up with a lobe of pv sitting over greenland scuppering our chances of any prolonged cold...If we get any at all.

Mind you any change from this weather is welcome and also those flooded areas getting a respite from sodden rain lashed ground and overflowing rivers is needed fast.

[Summer Sun]

Good support for high pressure build in just over a weeks time slowing the LP systems down

Certainly a trend worth following

Shorter term some stormy weather for Scotland later this week, t144 shows high pressure ever so slowly edging up into France

[Panayiotis]

Good support for high pressure build in just over a weeks time slowing the LP systems down

Certainly a trend worth following

Shorter term some stormy weather for Scotland later this week, t144 shows high pressure ever so slowly edging up into France

This chart is interesting, I wouldnt mind that as it brings settled conditions (a respite for already flooded areas) and the position of the HP will bring a light NE wind, so probably cool, frosty and sunny at the surface. Edited December 24, 2012 by Panayiotis

[karyo]

It seems so, hopefully we get to see something to look forward to when the New Year comes!

Yes, at least the stratospheric warming should change the weather pattern with more northern blocking but we may still end up in the wrong side of high pressure.

Karyo

[SMU]

Very poor outlook for cold lovers- The models have trended further & further away from anything meaningful in terms of cold-

Bearing in mind High lattitude blocking doesnt just appear it builds- so for that we are heading through to the end of the first week of Jan already -

Have a great Christmas with your families-

S

[Panayiotis]

Yes, at least the stratospheric warming should change the weather pattern with more northern blocking but we may still end up in the wrong side of high pressure.

Karyo

Hopefully not, as then you will have to change your comment to "it seems we have no luck for this winter!" Edited December 24, 2012 by Panayiotis