Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[minus 9]

Some nice northern blocking on the gfs 06 fi . Cheers santa. Probably gone by the 12z though. Have a nice christmas bartlet haters.

[bluearmy]

It may be time for the gfs deep fi to begin showing some wierd and wonderful scenarios as the warming of the strat is now consistently showing an SSW post jan 7th. Remember to look at NH view as there be nothing to see in the atlantic area. (There is no guarantee that we see an immediate response in the trop but i'm sure some runs will play with the solution)

Edited December 25, 2012 by bluearmy

[karyo]

Merry Xmas to you all!

The models are looking a bit more interesting today (a bit more amplification is showing up) which is probably due to the limited data which is always an issue over Xmas. Still, it is entertaining to see.

Karyo

[bluearmy]

Merry Xmas to you all!

The models are looking a bit more interesting today (a bit more amplification is showing up) which is probably due to the limited data which is always an issue over Xmas. Still, it is entertaining to see.

Karyo

Where is the evidence for this. Much of the world does not celebrate xmas and many met people are working hard over the holidays as matt hugo will testify. there were plenty of flights yesterday. Maybe a small lack of data from airlines on the 18z and 00z runs later today but i doubt it will be substantive.

[karyo]

Where is the evidence for this. Much of the world does not celebrate xmas and many met people are working hard over the holidays as matt hugo will testify. there were plenty of flights yesterday. Maybe a small lack of data from airlines on the 18z and 00z runs later today but i doubt it will be substantive.

Judging by your language, you are not feeling very Christmassy!

Much of the world does not celebrate Xmas? Where is the evidence of your statement? Much of Europe, America and Africa does and there are very few flights today!

Karyo

[weathersupremacy]

Judging by your language, you are not feeling very Christmassy!

Much of the world does not celebrate Xmas? Where is the evidence of your statement? Much of Europe, America and Africa does and there are very few flights today!

Karyo

http://www.flightradar24.com/

Loads of planes.

[carinthian]

Well that latest GFS run has cheered me up and probably most cold fans in the UK as well as a rest bite from the Rinse Hold synoptics for most of December in your longitude. Especially good charts for the Eastern Alps and the start of the main ski-ing season. This run looks more feasible than the previous cold block forecast for Western Europe. Lets hope this now becomes the latest trend for January .

C

[karyo]

http://www.flightradar24.com/

Loads of planes.

Compare this to a few days earlier and there is a notable reduction which can have an effect on the models.

The same applies for the New Year. I am going to Brussels and there is much less option of flights than normal.

Karyo

[Tom Jarvis]

Sorry mods a bit off topic but weather related.

There is a chance of server storms today out in America with a high chance of tornadoes. U can watch chasers stream the event live on chasertv or tvnweather.com.

Just hope it isn't as bad as they are saying it is going to be.

And merry Xmas to everyone

[weathersupremacy]

Compare this to a few days earlier and there is a notable reduction which can have an effect on the models.

The same applies for the New Year. I am going to Brussels and there is much less option of flights than normal.

Karyo

Still an abundance of aircraft and people not celebrating Christmas. Still, lots of people do not celebrate Christmas, like myself. There will be atheists and other people of various religions that do not celebrate Christmas and others who think it's a load of commercialised rubbish.

Can you post a link from a good source that confirms lack of data? Or maybe you can e-mail METO, NOAA or some organisation and post it here. I would do it, but I can't be bothered.

[Snowman.]

I don't believe anything that GFS is giving us in FI with the warming strat and all that Wave activity in near impossible for a PV to be that organized. With Lows covering the entire pole.

[bluearmy]

I don't believe anything that GFS is giving us in FI with the warming strat and all that Wave activity in near impossible for a PV to be that organized. With Lows covering the entire pole.

The warming doesnt become an SSW (if it does at all) until post T300 so the current output to T384 in the trop can show all it likes and be perfectly inline with strat activity. You should be aware that there is no guarantee that any upper strat warming will propagate down to the trop, either quickly or over a period of several weeks. Fwiw, the fi trop picture looks fine to me with the main vortex centred over n Siberia and some residual vortex energy in the Canadian/Greenland sector.

Also, the current strat modelling is much better than a few days ago re where vortex energy may be sitting post any SSW.

Edited December 25, 2012 by bluearmy

[Richie V]

I promise you, theres NO data reduction over festive times. Most data collected is discarded anyway. Please, dont ask me for evidence or links of proof as im not allowed to comment any further.

Merry xmas guys n gals.

[Craigers]

Merry Christmas everyone :-)

[Weathizard]

Pretty dreadful ENS really extended range but hey ho, its christmas time, be happy

[Iceni]

Some nice northern blocking on the gfs 06 fi . Cheers santa. Probably gone by the 12z though. Have a nice christmas bartlet haters.

I'm not so sure. It would be really unusual for this relentless conveyor belt of lows to keep coming right through January (yes I know…) but my gut feeling is we'll get the goods — a little late for Christmas, but more enjoyable for the waiting when it comes. Oh and TEITS, if you're around, before the last few days of cold, I did see quite a few seagulls.

A very merry Christmas to your all.

[Panayiotis]

On the 00z, I said I will keep my eye on the mid Atlantic ridge that may form at 183hrs, as you can see the 06z has amplified it further giving us nice northerly, hope to see more improvements on the 12z. 9 hours later...

Edited December 25, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

On the 00z, I said I will keep my eye on the mid Atlantic ridge that may form at 183hrs, as you can see the 06z has amplified it further giving us nice northerly, hope to see more improvements on the 12z. 9 hours later...

From cold and snowy to mild and wet in 24hrs only in Britain lol

[snow1975]

I don't believe anything that GFS is giving us in FI with the warming strat and all that Wave activity in near impossible for a PV to be that organized. With Lows covering the entire pole.

The GFS has been hinting at pressure rises from the south the past couple of days. The other models are following suite. A scandi high and low pressure in Atlantic with trough into the MEd. in FI could be a new trend. In fact it ties in with the Netweather winter forecast for January.

[cyclonic happiness]

I didn't know Santa delivered easterlies :-D

[Spurry]

On the 00z, I said I will keep my eye on the mid Atlantic ridge that may form at 183hrs, as you can see the 06z has amplified it further giving us nice northerly, hope to see more improvements on the 12z. 9 hours later...

I'm in the sleet zone

[AWD]

06z Ensembles;

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

An outlier in FI for 2m temperatures;

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=501&y=7&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Edited December 25, 2012 by AWD

[AGAL]

Merry Xmas to all.

High pressure building in the low res output of the GFS, (have we been here before, lol)

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-348.png?6

Merry Christmas Cal and everyone:

Yes we "have been here before" with the massive high bringing us if it materialises, very cold easterly air. But the models and the weather they've been trying to predict has been painfull to look at to say the least. I don't care if its in FI as I'm desperate to see a cold spell. To be honest the British Island maritime weather is like winning the lottery foor us coldie fans when it happens. You've got to be in it to win it.

Come on lets check our 12z GFS and see if we can at least get three numbers .

Edited December 25, 2012 by AGAL

[AGAL]

06z Ensembles;

http://www.meteociel...1&ville=Londres

An outlier in FI for 2m temperatures;

http://www.meteociel...=0&type=3&ext=1

Hey: It might be an outlier, but that dip sure beats the garlic dip I'll consume on boxing day

[Robbie Garrett]

Reference flights, British Airways operating a 70% schedule today.