Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[latitude]

Looking closer at the runs & ENS we are moving close to a bartlett scenario at day 8-10

I hope not. what a waste of Winter.

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?18

Classic

Steve

Looking for an above average and mild winter LRF for 2013/14 - No let downs then.

And Santa didnt bring my Greenland High

Edited December 25, 2012 by latitude

[thesnowman]

Everyone - must tell you this!! ( please don't delete)

.. Got up ... opened the curtains.. and guess what........ WHITE EVERYWHERE !!!!..........

Yes yes......... the wife covered our bedroom window in ARTIFICIAL SNOW from the outside....................... what a cool present on Xmas morning -

thankyou darling,,,XXX... thanks for nothing models (GFS etc bad humbug)

Edited December 25, 2012 by thesnowman

[IDO]

Happy Christmas.

The GFS 0z hasn't changed. The only block in FI is the Azores/Euro High and that along with the strengthening Jet, that is powering in phases of nearly 200 mph:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/00/384/hgt300.png

we are in a locked in pattern. We need northern blocking to disrupt the energy from the west. There is no sign of this developing on its own: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/00/384/npsh500.png

So we need something from the strat. No expert on that, potential still there: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/00/384/npst30.png

But not sure if we will get a SSW, and if we dont the warming maybe weeks away from influencing the trop.

The GEFS: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0

They show about 90% members zonal. The mean:

That is also supporting the Azores High and a zonal flow over the UK.

ECM is synoptically the same as GFS, west to east flow, with alternating transitional troughs and ridges moving east through the UK, possibly a cooler run than GFS:

That last chart very similar to GEFS mean:

With the alpha weather being zonal and beta being the Azores, the latter becoming more influential, cold is not even a player for the southern half of the UK at the moment nor for the next 15 days. At the moment any pattern change over the UK will be more likely a ridging from the Azores than a cold flow from the north.

[joggs]

Merry Christmas and thanks for all your inputs that make it so enjoyable.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0&lat=54.5

merry Xmas all huge problems it seem to-day so hope you all stay safe and dry

[bluearmy]

Happy xmas everyone. The ecm op shows what the mean anomlys and spreads have been showing. A toppler of sorts but certainly a little more seasonal than previous op output. As far as the extended gefs is concerned, more members than previous few days output beginning to show some blocking in positive areas but it still seems any wintriness will relate to mid atlantic ridges. The strat forecast remains good.

[The PIT]

While everyone is busy looking for icebergs the first bit of interesting weather (rains ceased being interesting too much of it) comes along Friday and into the weekend. A spell of very windy weather for most of the UK coming up with some damaging gusts possible.

Otherwise we're stuck in just above average with the odd very mild day thrown in temperature wise slightly cooler in Scotland. No real change with the pattern seemingly locked in for the foreseeable future.

[Timmytour]

Merry Xmas everyone. You will find my present for you all wrapped up in todays GFS 12z :-)

[ChartViewer]

Happy Xmas everyone.....................Suspect theres missing data in the models today ..................Unless i start to spot a change in FI with a nice mid atlantic ridge building North to Greenland

[Gibby]

Good morning. Happy Christmas to you all. Here is the Christmas Day look at the outputs from GFS, UKMO and ECM.

All models continue the very unsettled theme going way out into FI again this morning. Today will see a trough cross East through the day carrying some heavy showers across. These will die back towards Western coasts later as winds veer more towards the WNW. A chillier night tonight will be replaced by a spell of wind and rain through Boxing Day with gales in places for a time. The far North will stay rather colder with perhaps rain falling as snow on the hills. Showery weather will return through Thursday with further wintry showers on the hills of the North for a time before winds back SW and increase to severe gale force in the North and West with milder air with rain sweeping NE through Friday. Saturday sees a squally cold front race East across the UK in the strong flow returning showery weather to most areas with lower temperatures again with some snow possible in the showers on Northern hills.

GFS then takes us through New Years week with Low pressure continuing to dominate the weather with further spells of rain followed by showers in relatively mild and strong Westerly winds. Later in the week High pressure ridges up from the South with a quieter spell perhaps with a touch of overnight frost, especially in the South though weaker troughs than of late will still deliver some rain at times, especially in the North. By the second half of FI the pressure has become very high to the South with a North/South split developing with the North seeing most rain from continuing strong winds and troughs crossing over while the South sees lengthy dry spells with just occasional rain from weakening troughs as they move SE. Temperatures will remain near normal or above at times in the South.

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the zonal type spell of weather with temperatures at worst likely to stay well up to normal values for the time of year. Rainfall totals should reduce in the South with time as High pressure to the South steers the worst of the rain towards the NW. The operational was on the milder side of the pack towards the second half of the run.

The Jet Stream continues to flow West to East over the Atlantic towards the UK in peaks and troughs as various depressions pass by before a strong ridging of the flow in the Atlantic is shown in a week or so time.

UKMO for midnight on New Years Eve shows Low pressure to the SE of Iceland with a strong and broad SW flow across the UK with showers or longer spells of rain likely for all, chiefly in the North and West with near to normal temperatures.

GEM shows a further spell of wind and rain as another Low passes to the North on day 6 followed by a strong rise of pressure from the South thereafter drying things up for Southern areas at least with the North and West still more cloudy and mild with rain and drizzle at times.

ECM for day 6 shows an almost identical pattern to GEM with the depression around the New Year the last in the series before some respite develops from the South in terms of a strong build of pressure over France and Iberia with a warm front tracking NE over Northern and Western areas with rain and drizzle here.

In Summary the weather looks like staying unsettled and wet for some time yet as further Low pressures cross East close to or North of the UK maintaining the proximity of spells of rain and gales later over the UK. There is a growing trend for a pressure build from the South after the New Year to at least suppress the rainfall for many later away from the NW. There is no indication of anything remotely wintry still for many apart from the usual Northern higher elevations who may see a little snow in the showery interludes in polar maritime air between the rain bands over the coming week.

[Ian Brown]

Merry Xmas everyone, not much change from the NWP this morning, signs that the ECM and GFS try to build HP across us at least for a time by day 9 which could relieve the flooded areas and give us a break from the rain bands for a day or two.

[Duane S.]

Well I awoke to a whte scene. It was the aftermath of a very heavy hail shower but I'll take what I can get!

Bit more festive cheer in the model output this morning. GEFS ens are a little more easy on the eye than of late as is the ECM Op which is trying to ridge in the Atlantic. Nothing that at this stage you can't see being flattened out fairly quickly afterwards but a straw to clutch nevertheless.

Happy Xmas everyone!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

zonal,zonal zonal.Horrible outputs again today we better start hoping this strat warming pulls a cat out of the bad,my personal opinion is we are looking at another 7 to 10 days zonal and posibly a mid lat high,if the strat plays ball then maybe an opportunity for something better.

[UV-RAY]

Merry Xmas to all on Net Weather, unfortunately the models aren't reading the script and the miserable spell of weather continues for the foreseeable. Not much else to add really except all the best for the New Year.

[SLEETY]

many of the uk's coldest spells never really have got going until around mid-jan onwards ,you only have to read through the archives to confirm this.

Anyone writing off the winter on Christmas Day is either very foolish or on the wind-up

[AWD]

zonal,zonal zonal.Horrible outputs again today we better start hoping this strat warming pulls a cat out of the bad,my personal opinion is we are looking at another 7 to 10 days zonal and posibly a mid lat high,if the strat plays ball then maybe an opportunity for something better.

Cheer up mate, its Christmas. Better things than the weather this time of year!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Merry Christmas all, A special thanks goes out today to Gibby , who is a life saver on days like today when there isn't enough time to go through all the models, His Summary makes it quick and easy to find out what is going on , and also is great if you need to access from a Mobile phone ... On a Model note , if the ECM and GEM are correct with the pressure rise , I wonder if this will eventually improve our chances of getting some Heights going back North , once you get the Pressure rise , all you need is the undercut and you could very quickly be in business .

Chris

[Summer Sun]

After an unsettled week a very deep area of low pressure moves across the north of Scotland on Saturday bringing with it some gale force winds for the western side

By early Saturday morning the winds start to ease

Into early 2013 and GFS is continuing to show something more positive than of late with high pressure taking over giving those flood hit areas a welcome respite from the Atlantic storms

ECM also shows pressure starting to rise

Good agreement from the Anomaly as well

So after weeks of been battered by one low pressure system after another the end could finally be in sight for the UK with high pressure continuing to show from mid next week

[Summer Sun]

On another note for those colides who are starting to loose hope Matt Hugo has tweeted the following this morning

Patience is a virtue and with stratospheric charts like this

It could just be a matter of time as Jan progresses.

[Cloud 10]

Morning all,and a happy Christmas.

Still some interest for something wintry for high ground for parts of Northern England and Scotland on thursday,with some fairly heavy precipitation moving in with -4/-5 upper air and low thicknesses in place.

[IDO]

A better run by the 06z with more amplification and East Atlantic ridge develops early next year: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/06/204/npsh500.png

Migrating north-east: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/06/264/npsh500.png

Giving us a Scandi High late in FI: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/06/288/npsh500.png

So colder run: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/06/348/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121225/06/372/prectypeuktopo.png

See where that sits in the ensembles.

[Cal]

Merry Xmas to all.

High pressure building in the low res output of the GFS, (have we been here before, lol)

[Jason M]

Better FI, following on from slightly greater ringing in mid Atlantic late in the high res section of GFS. On this occasion the charts in FI look better than they are as the scandi high alignment and 850s don't quite cut it for most, but much better than recent runs.

We could really use a decent northerly toppler first. Ironically if it were just to our east that would help in the longer term as it could aid us getting sone colder 850s into Europe. The problem at the moment is that the pattern is a mild one for the whole of Western Europe.

Much better though than we have been seeing.

Jason

Edited December 25, 2012 by Jason M

[Blizzardo]

Better GFS 6z in the long term with some signs of a pattern change away from the endless Atlantic procession. A bit more blocking and a bit of an easterly influence.

[bradymk]

GFS 6z coming into tune with the festive day and showing a much better looking FI for coldies, have a good day everyone, merry christmas!