Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[Jason M]

Looking closer at the runs & ENS we are moving close to a bartlett scenario at day 8-10

I hope not. what a waste of Winter.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012122418/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

Classic

Steve

I was just thinking the exact same thing watching the 18Z roll out. It does look very much that type of set up with lows headed NE and a perennial high pressure belt to the SE. Very difficult pattern to break out of. It's the classic zonal Bartlett.

How on earth did we get here from the charts we were lookin at two weeks ago?

Jason

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking closer at the runs & ENS we are moving close to a bartlett scenario at day 8-10

I hope not. what a waste of Winter.

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?18

Classic

Steve

Grim isn't it Steve. Let's hope these model predictions don't spoil peoples' Christmases too much

Merry Christmas all!

[cold snap]

Well it's a cooler run than the 12z a slight improvement better tilted run , we have been saved from a even milder outcome

[Weathizard]

At least we have a strat warming forecast that will give us a chance of moving the vortex from the normal Vortex to our north, HP from the south Bartlett/Iberian high position. Very naive surely saying saying about waste of winter and other things with projected things that could go in our way we have 2 months to get out of it.

Christmas greetings to you all!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well it's a cooler run than the 12z a slight improvement better tilted run , we have been saved from a even milder outcome

And for what its worth the PV seems weaker with slightly better highs over Greenland. No real changes in the overall outlook yet though.

[nick sussex]

Pretty grim stuff from the GFS 18hrs run, jet flattens out and its downhill from there.

I'm beginning to feel that all our eggs are in the strat basket, that warming is still shown. If that doesn't deliver a big change then we really are in trouble!

Anyway all have a Great Xmas, lets hope the New Year brings about a change.

[Panayiotis]

A better 18z however still looks bad from a coldies perspective, hopefully father Christmas has left us a surprise in the morning! Merry Christmas to all!

[Ian Brown]

Looking closer at the runs & ENS we are moving close to a bartlett scenario at day 8-10

I hope not. what a waste of Winter.

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?18

Classic

Steve

Yes, it's got the late 80s/late 90s signature there. If we get to that, then it's 10-15 days after that before you could look to see anything cold, which takes to mid-Jan.

Hopefully we will begin to see the building blocks of change by the second week of the New Year, but we know from past experience the longevity that sort of set-up can endure.

[cold snap]

Pretty grim stuff from the GFS 18hrs run, jet flattens out and its downhill from there.

I'm beginning to feel that all our eggs are in the strat basket, that warming is still shown. If that doesn't deliver a big change then we really are in trouble!

Anyway all have a Great Xmas, lets hope the New Year brings about a change.

Don't think it's a bad as the 12z nick?

Merry Christmas to you

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS and ECM/UKMO very different on the southwards extent of the cold uppers at +72:

GFS:

ECM:

UKMO:

So some short term interest still for a lot of us within the next 3 days.

Anyway, merry christmas to all, it's been a long but enjoyable spell of model watching and I hope for all our sakes that the strat delivers the goods in the New Year.

[Lampostwatcher]

Looks like the only snow coming our way for next 2 weeks might fall off santas sleigh

Merry Xmas

[TEITS]

Looks like the only snow coming our way for next 2 weeks might fall off santas sleigh

Merry Xmas

Knowing our luck we will even miss that due to a shortwave knocking Santa off his Sleigh.

Im going to enjoy xmas and return in the New year but even then im not too optimistic the models would of changed that much. This is one pattern that is difficult to get out of.

Merry Xmas everyone.

[dry snow]

Iceland , yes please

[lorenzo]

Elephant Cox and bartletts - aaaaarghh !!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Christmas parties are going to be awkward with Uncle Bartlett hanging around (not the user just in case wires are crossed )

Hopefully things will pick up in the near year. Merry Christmas

[Cloud 10]

Looks like the NOGAPS will be no NOMORE after February!

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain NOGAPS

Behold the NAVGEM!!!!!!

GODAE: Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment- Project News

"MAR 13, 2013 - TRANSITION FROM NOGAPS TO NAVGEM COMPLETE. NOGAPS

MODEL WILL BE REMOVED FROM OPERATIONS."

Edited December 24, 2012 by Cloud 10

[Steve Edgefield]

Awful charts for cold lovers. Heights to our south and south west are moving in the wrong direction for winter! Steve M mentioned this sometime ago and I responded then saying that I shared his concerns. I think there is so much more value in posting an anlysis of what is causing the current pattern vs what was forecast vs what is forecast for the future. There are some excellent posts in this and other threads but what is sometimes frustrating is always reading about the future stuff which may or may not happen and not really understanding the present when it's here.

[Continental Climate]

I was just thinking the exact same thing watching the 18Z roll out. It does look very much that type of set up with lows headed NE and a perennial high pressure belt to the SE. Very difficult pattern to break out of. It's the classic zonal Bartlett.

How on earth did we get here from the charts we were lookin at two weeks ago?

Jason

Just when you think it cant get any worse the gfs gives us an absolute horror show!! Classic zonality in its most hideous manifestation!! Whilst the bartlett that we are seeing develop isnt a classic one ala feb 98 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980214.gif (shudder ) its pretty close and as SM said in his classic piece of a few years back, ode to winter, this slug pattern can quite easily wipe out a month of winter!!

I sense a change in this forum now, changing from being slightly angry and peeved at what we are seeing develop to grim resignation that Jan could also go the way of the pear!! GOD I HOPE IM WRONG!!

[Supertee]

Someone said something about looking for an 'erection'

I saved this from a warning issued by the one only Met Office on 15th December

[Mark Bayley]

My best attempt to find something decent

ECM 12z ensmble means

Although i feel the NAEFS sums up the general model consensus, at least for the first days of Jan. Although the ECM means at least look a little more interesting

Edit: Although definitely a lot of colder ensembles, with the ops generally at the milder end! A small chance it might not be as mild as we may think, something to keep an eye on over the next few days

Edited December 25, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[bobbydog]

latest from the GFS-

[Panayiotis]

Nadolig Llawen (Merry Christmas) everyone!

[West Sussex Kate]

Merry christmas! :-)

[Panayiotis]

As expected the low to our north at 111hrs was overpowered on the 18z however now we have a trio of lows on the 00z, but deeper cold comes quicker via the 18z but the 00z still brings a watered down cold NW/W wind.

Edited December 25, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Panayiotis]

Attempt at a mid atlantic ridge from the 00z at 183hrs (not shown on the flat 18z) maybe something to keep an eye on ie straw to clutch..

Edited December 25, 2012 by Panayiotis