Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[khodds]

Hi guys! My first post on this thread, as I only signed up about an hour ago! It's looking a lot better than it did for snow down here... But as always... This is the south west! Why do we have to be affected by the Atlantic so much

Welcome come and join the madness lol!

Re. The Atlantic, I have a feeling that for once, we may LOVE the Atlantic or the english channel next week!

[dec10snow]

Looks like the incremental step changes of GFS towards ECM in the early time-frames (as highlighted by Steve Murr) are moving to completion on the 18z.

Welcome Dec10snow!

Thank you!

[Lynxus]

Hi guys! My first post on this thread, as I only signed up about an hour ago! It's looking a lot better than it did for snow down here... But as always... This is the south west! Why do we have to be affected by the Atlantic so much

Couple of things really. But mostly..

1) The Gulf stream ( http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/ocean-conveyor-belt/?ar_a=1 )

This brings warmer water to our shores, This helps the weather systems stay more active as they reach us.

2) The jet stream.. This high altitude "wind" essentially blows weather systems our way. Pretty much head on most of the time. ( Currently it may end up south of us driving Low pressures across the channel )

[dancing daisy]

We are right between the two Daisy

Thanks fellow Bridgy person

I still think it will snow here Saturday night/Sunday morning. My frizzy hair says it shall be so.

[dec10snow]

Welcome come and join the madness lol!

Re. The Atlantic, I have a feeling that for once, we may LOVE the Atlantic or the english channel next week!

Thanks!

Yeah, we could well do... What was it, 5 ECM runs in a row showing channel lows?

[Jason74]

18z looking good (so far).

Dare not look at the charts tomorrow morning in case they've done a flip back!.

[dec10snow]

Couple of things really. But mostly..

1) The Gulf stream ( http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/ocean-conveyor-belt/?ar_a=1 )

This brings warmer water to our shores, This helps the weather systems stay more active as they reach us.

2) The jet stream.. This high altitude "wind" essentially blows weather systems our way. Pretty much head on most of the time. ( Currently it may end up south of us driving Low pressures across the channel )

Erm, thanks.... Not latching onto your point? :S

[AWD]

As already mentioned, the GFS in agreement on something wintry Saturday night as per Ian's recent report now;

This run is also looking better long term too. The hurdles are slowly but surely falling!

[khodds]

Thanks!

Yeah, we could well do... What was it, 5 ECM runs in a row showing channel lows?

Something like that. I can't wait til next week!

[liam300]

Erm, thanks.... Not latching onto your point? :S

These are two things that would affect our temperature to get snow on the south coast.

[AWD]

18z also continuing with a snow event Monday evening;

Interesting weather continuing to be modelled over the coming days!

[Tam]

Thanks fellow Bridgy person

I still think it will snow here Saturday night/Sunday morning. My frizzy hair says it shall be so.

Well something is coming, my cats in the last couple of days have started eating like there is no tomorrow, and one of them is refusing to go outside and she doesn't like the cold. My other will be fine he was chasing snowballs down the garden in Dec 2010, he loved the snow

[dancing daisy]

As already mentioned, the GFS in agreement on something wintry Saturday night as per Ian's recent report now;

This run is also looking better long term too. The hurdles are slowly but surely falling!

What are the later frames showing AWD? I know the frame that interested me last night was the midnight one, that had a huge swathe of snow across a lot of the SW.

Thanks

[dec10snow]

These are two things that would affect our temperature to get snow on the south coast.

Oh okay, thanks for clearing up! I'm not quite on the south coast, but the lows (if there were any) would still affect us

[Polar Bear]

Well the important chore is done. Booked my parents shopping on line so they don't venture put in the weekend in the cold. Unfortunately all the slots are booked until Sunday morning! I think a fair few are preparing themselves too for the weather! Really need the delivery to get there now and not be caught up in the weather... If it reaches the south coast that is....

[katemart]

[quote name='gottolovethisweather' timestamp='1357852161' post='2477595'

almost unfathomably unique

[kernowman]

Hi 1st time back here for a while, and I can see some potential for snow in the South West region but could I ask is there any potential for us down in the far South West or is it really going to be an event for the East of the region?

[AWD]

A whole load of eye candy from this run;

Remember, don't take these charts literally. The GFS has made big steps towards a much colder/snowier pattern over its last few runs compared to its runs the last couple of days.

A westward correction of 50-100 miles is nothing and is easily possible at this stage.

[caz100]

am I getting this right, we in lower cornwall might see some snow, or am I complete wrong?? lol

near truro.

[dec10snow]

Hi 1st time back here for a while, and I can see some potential for snow in the South West region but could I ask is there any potential for us down in the far South West or is it really going to be an event for the East of the region?

Hi! At the moment it looks as though you may miss out on these snow events in the short term, but FI is currently looking good for almost everywhere, so you have a shot at it!

[kernowman]

Hi caz100, if I remember correct from earlier Winters you are from Camborne. That's where I am and am interested to see if us in West Cornwall will get anything at all from this event. Fingers crossed.

[AWD]

You can see here that by Tuesday the cold air is still comfortably in place across the region;

That's 5 days away and probably as far as we should look in any semi-detailed fashion for now!

[dec10snow]

A whole load of eye candy from this run;

Remember, don't take these charts literally. The GFS has made big steps towards a much colder/snowier pattern over its last few runs compared to its runs the last couple of days.

A westward correction of 50-100 miles is nothing and is easily possible at this stage.

Very nice set of charts there... Although the snow seems to still be missing me! -.- as you say, they can all change though!

Edited January 10, 2013 by dec10snow

[liam300]

Another shift westward would be great. Would mean the cold would get her before the precipitation.

[noggin]

Or there is always;

I was going to say that that's not quite me, but on second thoughts it looks like great fun!

I quite fancy one, actually! Imagine the sense of freedom as you go shooting past the snarled up traffic.

It takes me back to my misspent youth and a boyfriend with a Triumph 350..............