Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[A.J]

Fair play the mods are doing a brilliant job in the MOD thread. They are being very patient, I would have kicked backside and detonated a few by now.

To our mods here, you don't know how lucky you are having us cider drinking yokels talking nonsense in your threads.

That's one way of putting it!

[Gibby]

If things turn out as shown on tonight's output, especially ECM we could be in for some classic snow events next week. I'm not a ramper but the chance of a fall of snow still tends to excite me so I can quite understand the frenzy that populates these forums in Winter. What I particularly like about the run up to this event is the bullish and willingness for the Met Office to openly talk about their confidence of a cold spell through next week, confidence that was more lacking through the early December fiasco. It is now just 48 hours away when the first flakes of snow should be fluttering down over parts of the West Country and living in the NE of the region you might like to bookmark my webcam which shows a panoramic shot towards the Mendips by day and a street lit cul-de-sac by night. It updates at 5 minute time slots 24/7 now instead of the previous 15 minute updates. You can find it at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/page8.htm

Secondly, over the pending cold spell I will comment here in the SW regional thread on what the models show for our corner of the Country at least once per day in a scaled down version of the National version on the MO thread.

[124alex]

Just seen this YAY YAY YAY!!

thats not good for somerset this weekend...

[dancing daisy]

thats not good for somerset this weekend...

I read it as good, we are after all south of Bristol and Cardiff? You are making me doubt my unsound geographical knowledge

[Tam]

I read it as good, we are after all south of Bristol and Cardiff? You are making me doubt my unsound geographical knowledge

We are right between the two Daisy

[124alex]

I read it as good, we are after all south of Bristol and Cardiff? You are making me doubt my unsound geographical knowledge

sorry my bad i read it as anywhere north of bristol! sorry. wait no anywhere south of that line will be rain :/

Edited January 10, 2013 by 124alex

[gottolovethisweather]

Any chance AT ALL of iow seeing some snow this weekend?!?

Yes, check out my Fax, well MetOs property of a Fax Chart above. I am thinking of the midnight chart in particular.

The usual caveat being that a lot can change in the meanwhile.

[slb97]

I've explained the situation at work to my colleages and after about 2 mins of why it could happen (SSW and all that) there eyes glaze over lol!!

Evening all, I'm quite lucky at work as my colleagues are interested and we've put our snow plans in place just in case (although I've stressed that being on the south coast will probably mean rain but you never know!) We're having another stab at moving house now so fingers crossed we can sell and get out of Portsmouth so I can be a little bit more optimistic with any snow chances being away from the coast!

[jtay]

Interesting post here from Ian regarding the weekend especially;

"Extended UK4 Precip Type signal (run with no cold bias) is strong for (mostly light) snow in retreating front by 2100hrs anywhere from approx Cardiff/Bristol eastwards to Reading and onwards to Kent & anywhere broadly south of that line, with exception of southern coastal districts (rain). The next event of interest signalled in MOGREPS snow probs and other modelling such as EC-EPS is overnight Sunday into Monday, with snow / leading edge freezing rain event tracking S down western-central parts of the UK. Less certainty of course on that one (not least with poor UKMO-GM continuity handling the development), but the output charts look fascinating at this juncture. General pattern from NW at that stage also with support now from ARPEGE."

Looks interesting again on Saturday now!

Is that not what Ian's being 'suggesting', for a couple of days now while we've been yaying and naying?

[chris55]

Some areas in our general location look very well placed for some initial snowfall over the weekend, and then if this battleground scenario does set up we could well be in the firing line again. The upcoming spell is probably the best type of synoptics the West country could ask for when it comes to snow risk.

[gottolovethisweather]

If things turn out as shown on tonight's output, especially ECM we could be in for some classic snow events next week. I'm not a ramper but the chance of a fall of snow still tends to excite me so I can quite understand the frenzy that populates these forums in Winter. What I particularly like about the run up to this event is the bullish and willingness for the Met Office to openly talk about their confidence of a cold spell through next week, confidence that was more lacking through the early December fiasco. It is now just 48 hours away when the first flakes of snow should be fluttering down over parts of the West Country and living in the NE of the region you might like to bookmark my webcam which shows a panoramic shot towards the Mendips by day and a street lit cul-de-sac by night. It updates at 5 minute time slots 24/7 now instead of the previous 15 minute updates. You can find it at http://www.norton-ra...co.uk/page8.htm

Secondly, over the pending cold spell I will comment here in the SW regional thread on what the models show for our corner of the Country at least once per day in a scaled down version of the National version on the MO thread.

Hello Gibby, I hope you do indeed get to post over here during the wintry spell, it will be very much appreciated , I'm sure.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[khodds]

I read it as good, we are after all south of Bristol and Cardiff? You are making me doubt my unsound geographical knowledge

Me too. However his latest post says AT THE MOMENT we will prob not see lying snow unless above 200m.... BOOOO but hey, that's the latest models, and it's only for this weekend. Next week ANYTHING could happen

.... And the latest GFS is rolling as we speak

Edited January 10, 2013 by khodds

[Lynxus]

Looking good guys.

Not sure what the people in the MOD-T actually want to be honest.

Yesterday, GFS shows a terrible outlook with signs of Dec.. Now the GFS shows some good progress and other models still staying strong some still saying epic snowfall...

So..

GFS not terrible and in some cases actually quite good.

Other models generally good with great signs of snow.

Yet for some reason, ITS JUST NOT ENOUGH!

I said it yesterday and before, The GFS will back down if others stay strong. The GFS is far too westerly progressive so if there are strong east signals it will take time to pick them up but will do eventually.

I really cant wait to see what happens. I feel some of us may be seeing some epic snowfall over the next 14 days.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Lynxus

[kumquat]

Thanks Gibby. Your contributions for the local scene will be most welcomed

Just some typical Somerset rain on your webcam lens atm lol

[Gibby]

Hello Gibby, I hope you get to post over here during the wintry spell, it will be very much appreciated , I'm sure.

Yes I will do my best as much as time allows.

[Bumpkin]

I've explained the situation at work to my colleages and after about 2 mins of why it could happen (SSW and all that) there eyes glaze over lol!!

I found the same. I've also been updating peeps on facebook. I've tried to describe the ssw etc in laymans terms but apparently I use too many 'big words' and they just want to know if it will snow. I like to explain why I think something will happen.

[124alex]

[khodds]

Latest GFS upgrades snow for our region on Saturday... Bound to change.... Sorry I can't post charts

[lfcdude]

Can we bank that now? Perfect for Wiltshire... And pretty good for a ot of us...

[Lynxus]

GFS is really showing the cold digging in now. Come on my puppy!

[jtay]

Latest GFS upgrades snow for our region on Saturday... Bound to change....

It does. Falls more in line with Meto.

[Lynxus]

It does. Falls more in line with Meto.

.. Falls off his chair

[cerneman]

It's not good for the health looking at the mod thread from now on they are a load nut cases, my advice is to stick with the MO from now on and nowcasts on here................!! Looking forward to some winteryness here in West Dorset!

Skiing down Colmers Hill?

[dec10snow]

Hi guys! My first post on this thread, as I only signed up about an hour ago! It's looking a lot better than it did for snow down here... But as always... This is the south west! Why do we have to be affected by the Atlantic so much

[kumquat]

Looks like the incremental step changes of GFS towards ECM in the early time-frames (as highlighted by Steve Murr) are moving to completion on the 18z.

Welcome Dec10snow!

Edited January 10, 2013 by kumquat