Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[A.J]

Would North Swindon area be in for some snow on Sat with current charts?

yes

[gottolovethisweather]

Just to reiterate what AWD said and what I think will be the overall consensus over the next week in future outputs.

Further out, GFS slowly introduces milder air over the South West, with rain falling mostly at this stage. ECM & GEM offer further, potentially disruptive snowfall to the South West.

Ignoring the specifics of precipitation detail at this range and you have something dramatic, entertaining and almost unfathomably unique developing before our eyes.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

Question. Where can I view the NAE? Thought it was on NW but can't see it. Thanks

Sorry it's OT

here you go...enough models to sink a battleship..... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec

[liam300]

Would North Swindon area be in for some snow on Sat with current charts?

Yes, depend of gfs

Edited January 10, 2013 by liam300

[khodds]

here you go...enough models to sink a battleship..... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec

Brilliant - thank you

[124alex]

Just a post to make sure my location is in the signature strip!

Roll on the 18z!

[jtay]

Sorry it's OT

I don't think there is a topic. Just say what you see.

[AWD]

Just to reiterate what AWD said and what I think will be the overall consensus over the next week in future outputs.

Further out, GFS slowly introduces milder air over the South West, with rain falling mostly at this stage. ECM & GEM offer further, potentially disruptive snowfall to the South West.

Ignoring the specifics of precipitation detail at this range and you have something dramatic, entertaining and almost unfathomably unique developing before our eyes.

I have copyright you know! :p

[Mark Parsons]

Would North Swindon area be in for some snow on Sat with current charts?

Yes probably!

[gottolovethisweather]

If folk haven't seen it in the latest blizzard of posts, here's my analysis from earlier.

Two days on from my last analysis I am back to look at the evolution from the GFS 12z in isolation against its previous run from 8th January.

As before, I urge folks to view things from a global perspective, rather than worrying about surface features which haven't yet developed. This will only lead to confusion and subsequent overanalysis.

On my last attempt, I looked at the Jetstream profile for what has always been an interesting Saturday 12th January, 12pm timeframe.

Here is the reality of how things now look, for Saturday.

What the above shows is a pattern not much removed from what was previously forecast. If anything, the southern arm is diving further South still. In terms of the Upper Air profiles, I will show what was forecast two days ago against how the GFS 12z now sees the Saturday 12th January, 12pm).

**Personally, the only difference of note, that I can see, is the potential lessening of the T850s come the date and time in question. By doing so, I am simply overanalysing the situation, so more appropriately, the period later into Saturday is when things should become interesting when speaking about to snow potential.

Looking at Monday 14th January, 12pm as I did before, let's look at the NH Jetstream and Upper Air profiles once again.

Two days ago, they were looking like this for the aforementioned date.

And now Monday 14th January, 12pm once again shows the potential for a battleground scenario out over parts of the West country.

The trend further ahead will undoubtedly continue to show the atlantic knocking on the door and the charts shown below, should be viewed as eye candy and not taken literally, in spite of the date showing Wednesday 16th January, 12pm

The above is most probably at the realms of Fantasy Island so it is pointless looking further ahead than that for now.

I have made no special mention of the weekend event as even now, it is simply too difficult to predict. Three tips I can suggest which are in no particular order, are to look for posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates.

[Ali1977]

Monday looks like a thin area of snow is over Wiltshire for about 9 hours. That would be nice if it happened!

[pinkertonsurly]

Just found out I'm 60m above sea level, not 70 odd.

That probably explains the lack of snow for the last 2 years.

[Mark Parsons]

It's not good for the health looking at the mod thread from now on they are a load nut cases, my advice is to stick with the MO from now on and nowcasts on here................!! Looking forward to some winteryness here in West Dorset!

[khodds]

It's not good for the health looking at the mod thread from now on they are a load nut cases, my advice is to stick with the MO from now on and nowcasts on here................!! Looking forward to some winteryness here in West Dorset!

Lol! Think most of them haven't slept for days, they are delirious...

[noggin]

Anyone said anything to family & friends yet?

Yes.

I told my daughters that we may get some snow later on Saturday and that it is possible that we may have some on Monday, but that even the Met Office can't say for certain. I think I've hedged my bets quite nicely there.

As for my boss.........I told/warned him that we may get great dumpings of snow on Monday and, if so, I shall have to walk in and of course it will take me a lot longer to get there. He said "oh, it'll only take you about 20 minutes, so that's not too bad". It's about 3 miles distance, so I calculate that he is expecting me to be covering each mile in about 7 minutes.

He's going to be in for a surprise on Monday morning. (If it happens, of course!)

Edited January 10, 2013 by noggin

[AWD]

It's not good for the health looking at the mod thread from now on they are a load nut cases, my advice is to stick with the MO from now on and nowcasts on here................!! Looking forward to some winteryness here in West Dorset!

Trouble is with cold/snowy spells in the MOD thread is it can get very IMBY in there. One person may say "it's a shocker" and another may say "what a stunner" and that's purely because one person is being shown snow and another isn't.

Some great posters in this chilled out, friendly thread, a cluster of very knowledgable members too, so I would advise we all stick together and usher in the cold/snow in this thread. You'll get all the info you want here, any questions just ask and someone from here will help you out.

Looking forward to it guys & girls!

[AWD]

As for my boss.........I told/warned him that we may get great dumpings of snow on Monday and, if so, I shall have to walk in and of course it will take me a lot longer to get there. He said "oh, it'll only take you about 20 minutes, so that's not too bad". It's about 3 miles distance, so I calculate that he is expecting me to be covering a mile in about 7 minutes.

He's going to be in for a surprise on Monday morning. (If it happens, of course!)

Or there is always;

[Mark Parsons]

Trouble is with cold/snowy spells in the MOD thread is it can get very IMBY in there. One person may say "it's a shocker" and another may say "what a stunner" and that's purely because one person is being shown snow and another isn't.

Some great posters in this chilled out, friendly thread, a cluster of very knowledgable members too, so I would advise we all stick together and usher in the cold/snow in this thread. You'll get all the info you want here, any questions just ask and someone from here will help you out.

Looking forward to it guys & girls!

Well said mate!

[Aceman]

It's not good for the health looking at the mod thread from now on they are a load nut cases, my advice is to stick with the MO from now on and nowcasts on here................!! Looking forward to some winteryness here in West Dorset!

It's like it after every run recently, even at 4.30am. Really glad of the regional thread. If the mod thread had a smell it would stink of brain farts!

Not meaning the usual lot who do take time to explain and show charts and back up ideas etc.

[AWD]

Interesting post here from Ian regarding the weekend especially;

"Extended UK4 Precip Type signal (run with no cold bias) is strong for (mostly light) snow in retreating front by 2100hrs anywhere from approx Cardiff/Bristol eastwards to Reading and onwards to Kent & anywhere broadly south of that line, with exception of southern coastal districts (rain). The next event of interest signalled in MOGREPS snow probs and other modelling such as EC-EPS is overnight Sunday into Monday, with snow / leading edge freezing rain event tracking S down western-central parts of the UK. Less certainty of course on that one (not least with poor UKMO-GM continuity handling the development), but the output charts look fascinating at this juncture. General pattern from NW at that stage also with support now from ARPEGE."

Looks interesting again on Saturday now!

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Speaking of Fax Charts, these are some beauties, let's hope they deliver. Please remember that these are given additional input over and above what the Models might suggest, so in theory should be even more accurate.

The above charts are from Saturday 12pm, Saturday midnight and Sunday 12pm respectively.

The out of date Fax Chart for Monday was even more impressive with the 528 DAM line nudging the Isles of Scilly.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[dancing daisy]

Fair play the mods are doing a brilliant job in the MOD thread. They are being very patient, I would have kicked backside and detonated a few by now.

To our mods here, you don't know how lucky you are having us cider drinking yokels talking nonsense in your threads.

[khodds]

Interesting post here from Ian regarding the weekend especially;

"Extended UK4 Precip Type signal (run with no cold bias) is strong for (mostly light) snow in retreating front by 2100hrs anywhere from approx Cardiff/Bristol eastwards to Reading and onwards to Kent & anywhere broadly south of that line, with exception of southern coastal districts (rain). The next event of interest signalled in MOGREPS snow probs and other modelling such as EC-EPS is overnight Sunday into Monday, with snow / leading edge freezing rain event tracking S down western-central parts of the UK. Less certainty of course on that one (not least with poor UKMO-GM continuity handling the development), but the output charts look fascinating at this juncture. General pattern from NW at that stage also with support now from ARPEGE."

Looks interesting again on Saturday now!

Just seen this YAY YAY YAY!!

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Any chance AT ALL of iow seeing some snow this weekend?!?

[Mark Parsons]

I've explained the situation at work to my colleages and after about 2 mins of why it could happen (SSW and all that) there eyes glaze over lol!!