Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[Iceberg]

GEM very similiar to the GFS, with a battleground scenario playing out across the west on Monday;

Haven't looked at UKMO yet, but so far we have;

- Small amount of potential wintriness Saturday afternoon & Saturday night across northern & eastern parts of our region

- Possible Ice Day for some on Sunday

- Possible battleground scenario Monday

Not bad at all. I would have took that at lunchtime today. Lets hope the ECM gives us some potential too.

Gem is fantastic for the sw upto t144' pretty much constant snow for some areas for 48 hrs.

A good ec please and a better nae at 9.30 tonight and I will be well happy

[AWD]

Gem is fantastic for the sw upto t144' pretty much constant snow for some areas for 48 hrs.

A good ec please and a better nae at 9.30 tonight and I will be well happy

Yes, the NAE is the model I want to see improve now. Being a high res model, you have to favour its outcome over other models within T48.

[cerneman]

Gem is fantastic for the sw upto t144' pretty much constant snow for some areas for 48 hrs.

A good ec please and a better nae at 9.30 tonight and I will be well happy

Just nice at moment not to hear about the dreaded M4 corridor,,,,,,,,,,,,

[AWD]

Just nice at moment not to hear about the dreaded M4 corridor,,,,,,,,,,,,

Judging by the GFS, it will be the M5 corridor instead! :p

[124alex]

Judging by the GFS, it will be the M5 corridor instead!

M5 goes all the way to devon though

[A.J]

Yes, the NAE is the model I want to see improve now. Being a high res model, you have to favour its outcome over other models within T48.

to be fair, I can remember plenty of winter episodes in the past where the NAE didn't cover itself in glory, hi-res or not....I prefer the NMM personally

[gottolovethisweather]

Two days on from my last analysis I am back to look at the evolution from the GFS 12z in isolation against its previous run from 8th January.

As before, I urge folks to view things from a global perspective, rather than worrying about surface features which haven't yet developed. This will only lead to confusion and subsequent overanalysis.

On my last attempt, I looked at the Jetstream profile for what has always been an interesting Saturday 12th January, 12pm timeframe.

Here is the reality of how things now look, for Saturday.

What the above shows is a pattern not much removed from what was previously forecast. If anything, the southern arm is diving further South still. In terms of the Upper Air profiles, I will show what was forecast two days ago against how the GFS 12z now sees the Saturday 12th January, 12pm).

**Personally, the only difference of note, that I can see, is the potential lessening of the T850s come the date and time in question. By doing so, I am simply overanalysing the situation, so more appropriately, the period later into Saturday is when things should become interesting when speaking about to snow potential.

Looking at Monday 14th January, 12pm as I did before, let's look at the NH Jetstream and Upper Air profiles once again.

Two days ago, they were looking like this for the aforementioned date.

And now Monday 14th January, 12pm once again shows the potential for a battleground scenario out over parts of the West country.

The trend further ahead will undoubtedly continue to show the atlantic knocking on the door and the charts shown below, should be viewed as eye candy and not taken literally, in spite of the date showing Wednesday 16th January, 12pm

The above is most probably at the realms of Fantasy Island so it is pointless looking further ahead than that for now.

I have made no special mention of the weekend event as even now, it is simply too difficult to predict. Three tips I can suggest which are in no particular order, are to look for posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[ARTDEMOLE]

Just Rain and 5c...is all their is to offer at the moment....

[AWD]

to be fair, I can remember plenty of winter episodes in the past where the NAE didn't cover itself in glory, hi-res or not....I prefer the NMM personally

I've only recently been using the NMM, courtesy of Netweather Extra, so I wouldn't know the verification for the NMM.

I do remember the NAE being wrong on a couple of occasions in the last couple of years, on time it was picked up in by TEITS in the MOD thread,

I would still prefer it to show a more "snow friendly" scenario though, as it is one of many high res models the Met Office use for short term forecasting, albeit modified.

[cerneman]

M5,, Is that the Moterway that all the Midlanders use to get down to our hot Sunny beaches in Summer? If and When we have Summer

[AWD]

M5,, Is that the Moterway that all the Midlanders use to get down to our hot Sunny beaches in Summer? If and When we have Summer

It's how the Brummies get to Weston Super Mare!

[jtay]

No idea after Monday but better pattern after the earlier output.

The rain/snow for Saturday seems to be becoming rather under whelming now.

Saturday into Sunday was always going to be borderline and it still is, with the position of the transitional low being paramount.

As Ian F alluded to earlier this week, next Monday onwards is where the excitement may lie and sure enough, even the GFS is now hinting as this.

Relax and wait, you may get a pleasant surprise.

Heard that plenty of times and as it turned out, snow was the more likely outcome.

[Bumpkin]

Well just had a look at the latest metoffice forecasts for Shaftesbury and sat, sun and mon all have at least 1 snow flake on them and temperatures are expected to stay below 0 once we get past Saturday.

This along with a possibility over the weekend and all and every model forecasting potential other chances next week is good enough for me.

If there is snow about then Shaftesbury usually does well. I went to school there and still have friends living in the town and many a time they have had snow whilst I had rain.

[Coast]

Relax and wait, you may get a pleasant surprise.

Are we back to the Sloe Gin and snow scenario again here? :unsure:

[Bumpkin]

Just nice at moment not to hear about the dreaded M4 corridor,,,,,,,,,,,,

I reckon to get snow in the south we need to dig up the M4 and re-lay it along the bottom of the country, I'm sure its got shield-like properties.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Usual Bottle and Jug and Jug Blowing....

[dancing daisy]

Can I be a MOD tonight? I am in a filthy mood so will put everyone straight.

Didn't I read earlier that the 18z is the one that we all need to look at now as this will be the model that tells the story for us all and the one that is most likely to be correct?

[AWD]

Interestingly, Ian had just posted in the model thread that the 12z NAE has been modified to show snow transition taking place.

(Post 506)

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[offerman]

Ian F, even called this called spell for mid jan back last year and i`m sure i remember him saying so early December to somebody.

Got to give him and Met office credit where credit due they haven`t been rushing in to predictions like many here inc myself they seem to have called quite a lot right in recent times.

Cirrostratus

One of the funniest posts iv`e seen in a long time. It is funny how they always use the m4 corrider and low and behold it can snow on its northern side and rain on south , or snow on south and dry on north.

[khodds]

I take it Ian was referring to Sat/sun as opposed to mon?

[AWD]

As for the weather now, heavy rain currently and feeling raw at 4.8c

[cerneman]

It's how the Brummies get to Weston Super Mare!

Not leave out Burnham on Sea, Spent week there and never saw the sea,,,,,,,,,,,,Back to Weather,, Just break from worry of Rain and Flooding will be nice little break, Remember snow eventually thaws,,,,,,,,,

[Andy Bown]

Just Rain and 5c...is all their is to offer at the moment....

I'd say this evening's weather is a positive fo cold fans, 5c under cloud and rain is vastly different to anything we've had with all

the wet weather during December! And of course during the drier period since New Years Day.

[lynnsim]

This really is going to be a day by day thing, isn't it? 24 hours ago my met office phone app showed 12 hours of light snow sat pm through to sun am. Now there is rain with one solitary little snowflake around 3am!

However, 2 little snowflakes have now appeared for mon evening. So I am looking to next week for a chance of snowfall now

[jethro]

Can I be a MOD tonight? I am in a filthy mood so will put everyone straight.

Didn't I read earlier that the 18z is the one that we all need to look at now as this will be the model that tells the story for us all and the one that is most likely to be correct?

A filthy mood's no good, you've got to be dedicated full time to grouchiness and have a certificate from the men in white coats.