Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[latitude]

An example;

A small feature gives this

[AWD]

Advice for newer members.

Don't look in detail at the GFS run. There are likely to be various different scenarios played out on further runs. Look at the trend. The trend in this run is to keep the colder air hanging on longer and setting up potential "battleground" attacks. With this type of weather, there will be losers as well as winners unfortunetly.

Any westward correction in future runs = better for us.

Interesting week coming up guys, are you ready???

EDIT: oh and the snow charts I use are just for fun more than anything, they are not all that reliable. As AJ says, we COULD hit the jackpot in this type of scenario!

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[Sainsbo]

I'm not the best at reading models, so has the GFS gone back to the snow that it was predicting last night?

[AWD]

I'm not the best at reading models, so has the GFS gone back to the snow that it was predicting last night?

It's showing snow potential yes, but its a messy picture so detail is irrelevant at this stage!

[Sainsbo]

It's showing snow potential yes, but its a messy picture so detail is irrelevant at this stage!

Thankyou! I guess no models are set in stone when it's such a long time away.

[Dampdorset82]

It's showing snow potential yes, but its a messy picture so detail is irrelevant at this stage!

I still cant see snow for the south coast though.....

[jethro]

Lattitude and Twister, at the risk of sounding like a miserable old git can I please appeal to you both to chill a bit. No one knows who will get snow, the odds of it happening change with every single model run so there's absolutely no point in hanging on every single one and believing it is gospel. Perhaps an approach to model watching and waiting for winter weather should be made along the same lines as buying a Euro millions ticket - everyone hopes to win the jackpot, sometimes someone does, sometimes no one does and it gets rolled over into a bigger and better prize - occasionally no one wins for weeks and it gets set back to square one. Every now and then you may get a tenner, even rarer you may win a hundred quid but the important bit is to keep buying the tickets to be in with a chance - no ticket, no hope. What we currently have is a huge pot of hope with an increased chance of winning a tenner, some lucky folk may win a few hundred quid and if lady luck is on our side, in a week or so we may get a shot at a rollover jackpot courtesy the SSW.

[latitude]

No idea after Monday but better pattern after the earlier output.

The rain/snow for Saturday seems to be becoming rather under whelming now.

[AWD]

Thankyou! I guess no models are set in stone when it's such a long time away.

It's proving difficult to have any confidence on the front on Saturday, let alone next week.

So far though, taking the operationals at face value, an improvement for us tonight. Look for any westward corrections to the pattern in future runs. We can't see any eastward corrections though.

Very marginal, but some of the best snowfalls come from marginal set ups like the GFS shows.

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[Coast]

Just imagine the mischief we two naughty Mods could have with a belly full of those two and tons of snow - no cameras allowed though.

I daren't even think about it Dawn, well not in the office....

Edited January 10, 2013 by Coast

[latitude]

Lattitude and Twister, at the risk of sounding like a miserable old git can I please appeal to you both to chill a bit. No one knows who will get snow, the odds of it happening change with every single model run so there's absolutely no point in hanging on every single one and believing it is gospel. Perhaps an approach to model watching and waiting for winter weather should be made along the same lines as buying a Euro millions ticket - everyone hopes to win the jackpot, sometimes someone does, sometimes no one does and it gets rolled over into a bigger and better prize - occasionally no one wins for weeks and it gets set back to square one. Every now and then you may get a tenner, even rarer you may win a hundred quid but the important bit is to keep buying the tickets to be in with a chance - no ticket, no hope. What we currently have is a huge pot of hope with an increased chance of winning a tenner, some lucky folk may win a few hundred quid and if lady luck is on our side, in a week or so we may get a shot at a rollover jackpot courtesy the SSW.

Im not hanging on every run, just describing what the run shows.....whats wrong with that? If it was showing -10 and a blizzard I would say, if its shows mild then thats what I would comment on.

Thank you for the lottery talk...very good.

[Iceberg]

Gfs is slowly backtracking and as it does it gets more and more wintry, meto looks quite good and if the ener can go under the block would lead to the similar very cold and snowy scenarios thrown up by various ec runs.

Still too much disagreement about what will happen post Sunday though.

Re the nae it has a very different set up than the previous nae run at 06 am Saturday it brings in winds from a more se source so not cold rather than an east cold. Probably due to he single elongated centre rather than the dual centre on the previous run. Is a bit of a let down but we need to see the next nae to see if its a new trend or not. Gfs on th other hand maintains the snow IMHO for the favoured location of the cots, me dips, glos etc. no big changes from the models and a very cold spell with lots of potential events coming up.

[Nights King]

Replying to your previous question jeth it is roughly 1 degree c for every 100 metres but it does vary slightly either way depending on weather situation etc so on average you would probably be 2 - 2.5c lower than sea level and more if you compared to a town or city etc

[AWD]

I still cant see snow for the south coast though.....

Detail is irrelevant currently.

[immortal1969]

Lattitude and Twister, at the risk of sounding like a miserable old git can I please appeal to you both to chill a bit. No one knows who will get snow, the odds of it happening change with every single model run so there's absolutely no point in hanging on every single one and believing it is gospel. Perhaps an approach to model watching and waiting for winter weather should be made along the same lines as buying a Euro millions ticket - everyone hopes to win the jackpot, sometimes someone does, sometimes no one does and it gets rolled over into a bigger and better prize - occasionally no one wins for weeks and it gets set back to square one. Every now and then you may get a tenner, even rarer you may win a hundred quid but the important bit is to keep buying the tickets to be in with a chance - no ticket, no hope. What we currently have is a huge pot of hope with an increased chance of winning a tenner, some lucky folk may win a few hundred quid and if lady luck is on our side, in a week or so we may get a shot at a rollover jackpot courtesy the SSW.

What happens if you dont play the lottery but occasionally go to the local bingo or have the odd flutter on the rugby club raffle...??

[TwisterGirl81]

Lattitude and Twister, at the risk of sounding like a miserable old git can I please appeal to you both to chill a bit. No one knows who will get snow, the odds of it happening change with every single model run so there's absolutely no point in hanging on every single one and believing it is gospel. Perhaps an approach to model watching and waiting for winter weather should be made along the same lines as buying a Euro millions ticket - everyone hopes to win the jackpot, sometimes someone does, sometimes no one does and it gets rolled over into a bigger and better prize - occasionally no one wins for weeks and it gets set back to square one. Every now and then you may get a tenner, even rarer you may win a hundred quid but the important bit is to keep buying the tickets to be in with a chance - no ticket, no hope. What we currently have is a huge pot of hope with an increased chance of winning a tenner, some lucky folk may win a few hundred quid and if lady luck is on our side, in a week or so we may get a shot at a rollover jackpot courtesy the SSW.

Ok sorry, we're just discussing the weather and asking that to chill about, I live in a county that's had enough rain

[jethro]

Im not hanging on every run, just describing what the run shows.....whats wrong with that? If it was showing -10 and a blizzard I would say, if its shows mild then thats what I would comment on.

Thank you for the lottery talk...very good.

I appreciate that but what you're saying here is that every run is absolutely what will happen. I'm not being funny but for the last couple of days almost every post you've made has been focussed upon the worst possible scenario, whilst I understand the idea of think the worse and then what happens can only be better, that's really more a philosophy rather than a true appraisal of the models. There is currently great uncertainty, there has been for days and it will probably continue like that until the first flakes start falling. Relax and wait, you may get a pleasant surprise.

[cerneman]

What happens if you dont play the lottery but occasionally go to the local bingo or have the odd flutter on the rugby club raffle...??

Money is money,,,,,,,,Snow is snow no matter where or how it developes,

[jethro]

Ok sorry, we're just discussing the weather and asking that to chill about, I live in a county that's had enough rain

I know that but no matter how much anyone wants a certain type of weather, it will do what it wants. We all live in the SW, we've all had it soggy and wet for weeks on end and we all face the biggest uphill battle of anywhere in this country to actually get snow. We've all got to keep our fingers crossed.

Replying to your previous question jeth it is roughly 1 degree c for every 100 metres but it does vary slightly either way depending on weather situation etc so on average you would probably be 2 - 2.5c lower than sea level and more if you compared to a town or city etc

Cheers Mullender, any idea if those charts are set at sea level?

[cerneman]

Here and Now damp murky chilly, No point looking for Stars tonight,

[Dorsetbred]

And I quote....BRUTAL

"Weather forecaster Cliff Thomas, who runs Wareham Weather, said: “North Dorset could see some wintery weather but it really is an outside chance that there will be snow. It's very unlikely.â€

Mr Thomas said predicting the weather recently has been difficult for forecasters.

“It has been an absolute nightmare, even for professional forecasters,†he said.

“They are having all sorts of troubles. About seven or eight days ago, it was starting to look very cold. At one point it was looking brutal, but at the moment, the weather is looking a bit more normal for this time of year, as it has been very mild.â€

difficult

nightmare

Brutal

Go on say what you really mean

Edited January 10, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

GEM very similiar to the GFS, with a battleground scenario playing out across the west on Monday;

Haven't looked at UKMO yet, but so far we have;

- Small amount of potential wintriness Saturday afternoon & Saturday night across northern & eastern parts of our region

- Possible Ice Day for some on Sunday

- Possible battleground scenario Monday

Not bad at all. I would have took that at lunchtime today. Lets hope the ECM gives us some potential too.

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[Iceberg]

Well just had a look at the latest metoffice forecasts for Shaftesbury and sat, sun and mon all have at least 1 snow flake on them and temperatures are expected to stay below 0 once we get past Saturday.

This along with a possibility over the weekend and all and every model forecasting potential other chances next week is good enough for me.

[Nights King]

I know that but no matter how much anyone wants a certain type of weather, it will do what it wants. We all live in the SW, we've all had it soggy and wet for weeks on end and we all face the biggest uphill battle of anywhere in this country to actually get snow. We've all got to keep our fingers crossed.

Cheers Mullender, any idea if those charts are set at sea level?

Yes I think they are.

Right time for me to drive home in this rain and fog see you in 40 mins

Edited January 10, 2013 by mullender83

[Beast of Plympton]

Replying to your previous question jeth it is roughly 1 degree c for every 100 metres but it does vary slightly either way depending on weather situation etc so on average you would probably be 2 - 2.5c lower than sea level and more if you compared to a town or city etc

Hi Mullender

So what do you think the chances are 369 ASL, top of Dartmoor for some of the white stuff??

Sorry, newbie here and trying to learn!!

Ian