Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes, PPN isn't expected to turn to snow until later on Saturday for areas south of the M4 anyway (if indeed at all). What the chart shows is the cold air undercutting with enough PPN around to possibily provide something wintry for more of our region.

NAE will shortly be out, this will be a good one to see.

And that is also why it will pay to lurk in the other regionals and wait for the snow reports from places due East and North.

I am in Central Southern england so should be in a good position, to inform you guys n gals out West as it hopefully starts to fall in my locality.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

Really, Lynxus? That much? Best I had was some really weird frozen rain on my windscreen

HOWEVER. It's been 7C today and has just now started on its downturn so I hope not to see the temps up around that level again until i have had *at least* one snow day. Apart from Boxing Day, it's been grim and gloomy in Soton since the failed Beast from the East.

[offerman]

Twister is right, we had a dumping here in Frome (somerset)at the start of November.

[cerneman]

No we didn't (I live in Devon) It was Somerset and Wiltshire....The only place that may have had a light sprinkling is Dartmoor which has very high elevation....I am in the same boat as you....All we've had is rain and lots of it....

The Mantra is get the cold in first, The more cold/mild attacks increase chance of some snow

[microclimate]

Yes, amazing we had snow from the back edge of the front that went through on 4th November (on coast of West Dorset), my sister who lives on the northern side of Weymouth got nothing so very localised.

[gottolovethisweather]

Please can we now discuss the future hopes and fears and not the past.

Having said that a 1978 type event could be a real blast from the past and it is not such a long possibilty as one might imagine.

Cold, colder and progressively snowier is still hopefully the underlying trend but for some, it can and often will disappoint.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

No we didn't (I live in Devon) It was Somerset and Wiltshire....The only place that may have had a light sprinkling is Dartmoor which has very high elevation....I am in the same boat as you....All we've had is rain and lots of it....

Oh, well fingers crossed for everybody who wants to see some of the white stuff but who hasn't been lucky yet, then

Hopefully Mother Nature will throw a hissy fit at us! Where's that snow angel gone...?

[Iceberg]

nae not brill as it takes the cold further east, but plenty of time yet...I will quickly run for cover now...

[124alex]

has mondays chance disspeared! why does the east take all the snow! grr. dont expect it to change much now.

[AWD]

nae not brill as it takes the cold further east, but plenty of time yet...I will quickly run for cover now...

It's not great. Midday Saturday has the cold air over the Midlands and east still;

With a fragmented band of patchy rain over the south west;

See what future runs show for later on Saturday and into Sunday,

[Mapantz]

Although many of us won't see any snow over the weekend, i personally wouldn't be too disheartened.

The current saga could be due to the strat warmings back in December and the bigger potential is yet to come.

[dancing daisy]

It will be fine, we will all get a dumping of the white stuff, I am convinced of this, everything will sink down/move across and we will all be on here on Sunday morning raising our glasses.

Plus my hair has gone really frizzy, damn that atmosphere...frizzy hair = snow

[TwisterGirl81]

It's not great. Midday Saturday has the cold air over the Midlands and east still;

With a fragmented band of patchy rain over the south west;

See what future runs show for later on Saturday and into Sunday,

Arghhhhh for the love of god lol we will just have to remain patient....we just don't need any flooding down here

[latitude]

It's not great. Midday Saturday has the cold air over the Midlands and east still;

With a fragmented band of patchy rain over the south west;

See what future runs show for later on Saturday and into Sunday,

Spot on to what the MET are predicting. No rain turning to snow until after 18:00 Sat IMBY if at all.

I posted this earlier. The ECM makes nothing of the LP as it travels SE. At 18:00 hardly anything around except over Dartmoor.

Anyway I thought the rain had to push north first........then mix with cold air.

Edited January 10, 2013 by latitude

[AWD]

To be fair the NAE only goes out to midday Saturday, and possible snowfall across the south isn't forecast until Saturday eventing, so perhaps its a tad too soon still yet. Although it would be a good few hours until the colder air undercut (if at all) based on the midday charts.

Anyway, onto the main models. The next few hours are going to be significant with respect to the sanity of many Netweather members.

What does the 12z data hold for next week? We're about to find out.

[AWD]

Nice video here from the Met Office on the possible upcoming events;

http://t.co/fsfMh8M5

[AWD]

GFS 12z brings a little wintriness to us Saturday night;

[Coast]

Gotta love living on the coast!

[AWD]

what a load of rubbish before we had a chance of snow sunday and into monday. winter is over.

Was there?

Monday into Tuesday there was a chance?

[jethro]

GFS 12z brings a little wintriness to us Saturday night;

Quick question from idiot here...at what level above sea level are those charts based on?

I know temperature decreases with height but can't remember the actual amount, anyone have a clue? I know it's vaguely 1c per X amount of height but I can't remember if it's per 100ft or 1000ft

[124alex]

Was there?

Monday into Tuesday there was a chance?

Yeah sorry i ment sunday had a chance and then monday night sorry

[jethro]

Gotta love living on the coast!

I'm claiming squatter's rights on your sitting room floor.

[cerneman]

Gotta love living on the coast!

Ye can see Poole bidding for next Winter Olympics

[gottolovethisweather]

As the above post from AWD shows, a strict interpretation of just the GFS 12z run, it looks like a minimal risk of some snow late on Saturday for a vast part of this region.

However, from this I would suggest that things as ever, when it comes to snow, are still very uncertain. Based on this one run, it looks like the surface feature wants to slide into the Bay of Biscay and stays way out to the Southwest.

Looking further ahead, this could be a better evolution, so let's see where the 12z goes beyond the weekend event.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Quick question from idiot here...at what level above sea level are those charts based on?

I know temperature decreases with height but can't remember the actual amount, anyone have a clue? I know it's vaguely 1c per X amount of height but I can't remember if it's per 100ft or 1000ft

I'm not sure sorry, try asking Paul that one.