Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[fromey]

morning all, anybody else still confused after reading the MOD

anyway just seen this, it has a weather warning out but when you click on the warning it says SW england but its not for us, its for south wales and the west midlands, again confused!!

http://www.metoffice...Time=1357948800

covering there Bases??

Edited January 10, 2013 by fromey

[A.J]

just for fun...

** Very Important Read **.....

**Model Output Discussion thread summary for the morning of Thursday 11th Jan 2013**

It might rain, it might snow

It might be mild, it might be cold

It might be windy, it might be calm

It might be an easterly, it might be a south westerly

The GFS is gospel, the GFS is blasphemy

I'm now schizophrenic, and so am I!

[egret]

Met office have just issued a severe weather alert for SW UK - snow on Saturday, but only for E Wales and Midlands, bottom edge just to the North of Cardiff

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a ECM PPN chart. Shows how the PPN is all but gone at 18.00 Saturday. But a nice little blob over Dartmoor.

Only takes the ECM and UKMETO to follow the GFS regarding the shortwave and all that would change overnight.

True, everything is up in the air. Your pessimism never changes though. You may well be right but you're more likely to be wrong IMHO.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

For the fifth day in a row the MetO 6-15 dayer has mentioned the word snow, now that is what I call consistent. It is also what I call, stepping back and taking the overall model suite output for what it is, a guide or general trend as what conditions are to be expected in the near future.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2475711

Game on and we're less than 48 hours away from seeing the first snowflakes over certain parts of this region.

Yes GTLTW, not a bad update there from Exeter. Certainly enough to keep me interested over the coming days.

Remember this weekend was never forecast to be a dumping, only a dusting at most if we do see something. It's something that has upgraded a little day by day until today. Could easily carry on upgrading or just as easily disappear.

Better than the flooding we has last month however.

[latitude]

Met office have just issued a severe weather alert for SW UK - snow on Saturday, but only for E Wales and Midlands, bottom edge just to the North of Cardiff

How is that SW England then???????????hahah

[fromey]

Met office have just issued a severe weather alert for SW UK - snow on Saturday, but only for E Wales and Midlands, bottom edge just to the North of Cardiff

just posted that above(on page 13), very bizarre, like i said covering there bases or does somebody need a geography lesson!lol

Edited January 10, 2013 by fromey

[cerneman]

I think for our region we could well see period of pushing and nudging between coldier and mildier air, No major battle ground scenarios More like skirmishes that can give some short notice surprises. For coming Weekend so much depend on timing, Best bet suppose higher elevations North East of our region,

[Chris K]

just posted that above(on page 13), very bizarre, like i said covering there bases or does somebody need a geography lesson!lol

This has happened many times before. The warning is touching northern Gloucestershire and infact is only several miles North of where I live really. I sometimes feel a bit in no-mans land because yes I'm in the West Country, but people often get confused as to whether its SW England or SW Midlands. (I class it as SW England going by the motorway signs )

It has often been the case that my hometown is a battleground between rain and snow. I'm going to try and find a picture later I had saved of about 3/4 of my town and anywhere South towards bristol that clearly had rain/sleet and the Northern section of town and out towards Gloucestershire had settled snow.I would not be surprised to be on here at the end of this weekend saying that I had rain but a few miles North of me saw Snow.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Chris K

[Nights King]

just posted that above(on page 13), very bizarre, like i said covering there bases or does somebody need a geography lesson!lol

Maybe there was an error while uploading our snowmagedon so its not completed yet...

[sandhurst-smoker]

quiet a good video about the upcomming cold spell

[Bumpkin]

Just been cleaning up in the kitchen and looked out of the window to see a complete white-out! The field behind the house had been invaded by seagulls, must of been thousands of the damn things.

[Iceberg]

before people either write off the snow for this weekend or count their chickens i cant stress how important it is to see the first handling of the NAE.

The first model predictions for Saturday 12.00 will come out today at 15.15pm (roughly). at 21.15 today it will do its first forecast for 18.00 saturday which will give the first real indications. The resolution of the NAE is many times greater than the GFS or ECM and will be needed to fine tune this situation.

Not long to go now.

[fromey]

Maybe there was an error while uploading our snowmagedon so its not completed yet...

i have very limited knowledge, but this isnt over yet, long way to go, the NAE may push things south or north, and as i have said before it will most likely come to a now-casting event and as always this thread will be invaluable.

fromey

[otleygas]

Extract below is from from met office advisor to local public sector resilence teams...

Saturday ....a weather front will move across England and Wales bringing more rain, although that rain is likely to turn to sleet and snow during Saturday afternoon and evening.

The area most likly to see snow on Saturday afternoon and evening is Gloucestershire, where there is a chance that snowfall amounts may be enough to give some tricky driving conditions for a time, especially on some of the more rural and higher roads.

Across Avon Somerset, Dorset and Wiltshire there may be some sleet and wet snow around on Saturday afternoon and evening, but any snowfall should be quite sporadic, shouldn't stick, and is unlikley to give any problems.

... a chance we'll see some more sleet and snow again during Monday, but amounts don't look particularly threatening.at the moment...

[Chris K]

I actually can't wait to start the nowcasting. It's always so tense. I have a feeling it was Feb 2012 where I had one eye on radar and one on my weather station watching the dew points etc as it moved in.

Stayed as rain in the end with wet flakes of snow now and again, but it was quite fun still to follow it! (Am I sad?) haha.

[Beast of Plympton]

quiet a good video about the upcomming cold spell

Hope he is right!

[Mapantz]

Just had the Daily Echo ring me and ask about the potential for snow here. That conversation didn't last long. :lol:

[SunnySouthCoast]

Met Office forecast has just rain here for Sat/Sun & even in the extended 10 day forecast on BBC the lowest predicted possible temperature is just 0C! I think if you live on the south coast you should not be getting too excited

[latitude]

GEM is now my favorite model

[Dorsetbred]

Met Office forecast has just rain here for Sat/Sun & even in the extended 10 day forecast on BBC the lowest predicted possible temperature is just 0C! I think if you live on the south coast you should not be getting too excited

I'm not, and I think that would be obvious from my previous postings. It's a real struggle for the south coast in this type set-up.

It's always interesting when this happens and people post "It's snowing" and then a lone voice posts "Not down here it's not.."

[latitude]

True, everything is up in the air. Your pessimism never changes though. You may well be right but you're more likely to be wrong IMHO.

My pessimism will never change im afraid. Dont want to be sat here tomorrow looking at all the charts resembling the GFS, thats for definate....but currently its a big elephant in the room right now.

[Polar Bear]

flipping models ... the will it snow risk for Newbury (sat and Sun) is today at 50%. Yesterday Sunday was at 95% - spread your bets why dont you models..;(

[gottolovethisweather]

My pessimism will never change im afraid. Dont want to be sat here tomorrow looking at all the charts resembling the GFS, thats for definate....but currently its a big elephant in the room right now.

I want them to resemble the GFS 12z in the near future, and that's simply because I've seen the future. Potential and trend are my favoured words when viewing the model output and I do tend to stick with the afternoon runs because these simply come across to me as more consistent.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

flipping models ... the will it snow risk for Newbury (sat and Sun) is today at 50%. Yesterday Sunday was at 95% - spread your bets why dont you models..;(

Ignore them PB, should simply be used for purposes of fun or no fun, depending on your expectations. The afternoon runs will be more revealing and so will, the NAE and NMM expectations as we get nearer the first event.

Rain at first, slowly turning to snow as the cold air undercuts is how I view things and have for many a day. The fear I have, is that the precipitation may decrease in its intensity over time, but even that is speculation.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather