Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[latitude]

The snow or rain has been appearing further south every run, this due to the LP tracking further SE with every run.

And the PPN is becoming more and insignificant.

[AWD]

Snow event on Monday for West Country on GFS!

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[124alex]

Snow event on Monday for West Country on GFS!

yes!!!! although their not very reliable although i wish they were

Edited January 10, 2013 by 124alex

[latitude]

-5 Uppers gone Monday lunchtime again...great.

[Coast]

I'm claiming squatter's rights on your sitting room floor.

I'll break out the Sloe Gin then!

[latitude]

Snow event on Monday for West Country on GFS!

Looks like rain for the SW....

Sorry but the -5 line is lost in our region on Monday with rain pushing in.

Edit at +99 hrs.......but what is happening now......................

Edited January 10, 2013 by latitude

[AWD]

Snow to rain on this run but something to watch now for sure!

[gottolovethisweather]

Quick question from idiot here...at what level above sea level are those charts based on?

I know temperature decreases with height but can't remember the actual amount, anyone have a clue? I know it's vaguely 1c per X amount of height but I can't remember if it's per 100ft or 1000ft

I don't know, re: the first part.

Second part, roughly 1 Fahrenheit decrease per 100 metres altitude. I think?

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Don't go in the MOD thread. The rest of this run isn't going to be pretty for cold!

:p

In all seriousness, this run has improved in the T96 timeframe, as many are saying on the MOD thread. Whilst this specific run shows a snow - rain event on Monday, I have a feeling this could be upgraded to an all snow event nearer the time.

Lets see what the other models say!

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[124alex]

Don't go in the MOD thread. The rest of this run isn't going to be pretty for cold!

In all seriousness, this run has improved in the T96 timeframe, as many are saying on the MOD thread. Whilst this specific run shows a snow - rain event on Monday, I have a feeling this could be upgraded to an all snow event nearer the time.

Lets see what the other models say!

Whens the UKMO came out?

[TwisterGirl81]

It looks like South East and Midlands will take a pasting,,,,,I could have predicted this

[AWD]

Whens the UKMO came out?

It's coming out now!

[124alex]

It's coming out now!

just saw! thanks

[latitude]

Much better than the GFS 06z. We hold onto the cold with snow events possible.

This run matches the METO text output.

[gottolovethisweather]

It looks like South East and Midlands will take a pasting,,,,,I could have predicted this

I truly hope they do as that will make these model predictions nonsense. The colder the entrenched air is the North and East the better and same goes for that region's snowcover.

Bring it on.

[latitude]

Snow again in the SW and Wales Tuesday............corr

[gottolovethisweather]

Much better than the GFS 06z. We hold onto the cold with snow events possible.

This run matches the METO text output.

BANK. BANK. BANK.

The most positive post I've heard from you for a long long time.

Oddly, I thought it was a bit of a downer compared to yesterday's GFS 12z but I'll wait to see what the ensembles have to say.

[124alex]

Snow again in the SW and Wales Tuesday............corr

where does it show this?

[TwisterGirl81]

I still have a feeling that something big is coming for the entire southern area

[AWD]

GFS sets up battleground central. This could be mega or a damp squib for us and wont be decided until T0 if the GFS verifies.

The further north and east you are in the region the better.

Good run compared to previous GFS output.

[latitude]

BANK. BANK. BANK.

The most positive post I've heard from you for a long long time.

Oddly, I thought it was a bit of a downer compared to yesterday's GFS 12z but I'll wait to see what the ensembles have to say.

The only I dont like is the -5 line moves away from our region, so anything from the sky would be wintry but maybe not snow. You can see Cornwall and Devon wont see anything from this unless across the moors.

[AWD]

where does it show this?

An example;

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[katemart]

Good run compared to previous GFS output.

And further backtracking expected later

[jethro]

I'll break out the Sloe Gin then!

Ooo, yum! I'll bring the Sloe Vodka too. Just imagine the mischief we two naughty Mods could have with a belly full of those two and tons of snow - no cameras allowed though.

[A.J]

Very exciting times for our region looking at the GFS12z rolling out....T123-132 are beautiful charts, a shortwave sending energy SE wards to the west of the UK, a good looking undercut, possible heavy snow if that verified!