Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[flyer]

Well if it's any consolation, just heard one of Ian's colleagues , David Braine on radio 4 at 6pm describing cold air pushing up from the continent and interacting with the atlantic systems to give potential snow for the south.

Have to say haven't yet verified that myself by looking at any met charts, as mentioned above the whole thing is stressing me out with Ian Brown and others versus the rest of the model forum.

Thank goodness for Ian F who takes a more level headed professional detached view.

[Frosty_wsm]

The ECM isn't so good for Monday, as a mild sector enters the SW, but it would bury us later on in the week!

Well I'll tell you one thing, I'm more than happy to be proved wrong, course I'd rather those colder uppers were further west, which they were in earlier op runs this week.

[Evie]

Been addicted to this thread last couple days, not a pro but learning, what are the chances of snow for Exeter ?? Mmmmm?

[AWD]

Well I'll tell you one thing, I'm more than happy to be proved wrong, course I'd rather those colder uppers were further west, which they were in earlier op runs this week.

The further west the better as that would give us more margin for error, but taking the EC Det at face value, many inland areas of the SW, away from Devon & Cornwall would see a lot of snow from that run.

[Frosty_wsm]

The further west the better as that would give us more margin for error, but taking the EC Det at face value, many inland areas of the SW, away from Devon & Cornwall would see a lot of snow from that run.

Very true and I should state me earlier post was made while still only at 144, 168 shows a channel low and even I know what that would bring.

[MP-R]

http://news.uk.msn.com/snow-in-jerusalem-in-photos-098761#image=2

If Jerusalem of all places can get snow - so can the southwest!

[latitude]

Close run thing, but as stated Cornwall and parts of Devon dont really get invited to the party.

here the t120 and t144 850s, -4 would guarantee snow in that set up imho, so sorry cornwall and parts of devon but for the rest of the region....YES.

Bristol was rain to light snow saturday on the BBC website, now that has disappeard. Anyway the important thing is to get the cold in place, and hope it sticks around when any fronts from Atlantic try to push in. Then some more proper snow might be on the cards.

BBC GIVING PLYMOUTH 10 DEGREES ON SAT..

Edited January 10, 2013 by latitude

[Iceberg]

from a very selfish pov the latest ecm keeps me under -4/-5 or lower for the whole run from saturday apart from the smallish milder sector at T96.

[dancing daisy]

YES!

Sorry I should post more for those that didn't see the weather forecast. Snow for Glos, moving down, even snow over my patch which is surprising. (West Somerset).

Then it looks like all systems go for Monday.

God bless you Ian and all that sail in you!

Edited January 10, 2013 by dancing daisy

[rowieboyz]

Fingers crossed the colder air is a bit further west so everyone can join in the fun!

Jase

[Nights King]

another good forecast from ian although I had a feeling he wanted more time..

5-10cm above 200m I'll take that although probably less on mendips being further south and he said turning to snow more widespread into the evening so all to play for

[AWD]

Very true and I should state me earlier post was made while still only at 144, 168 shows a channel low and even I know what that would bring.

Even T120 & T144 would bring snow to northern and eastern parts of our region. Out of all the model output tonight, that's the best run for us I think.

Summarise;

- Small chance of wintriness Saturday evening and night as a front drops south. Nothing significant expected.

- Ice Day on all models possible on Sunday for some

- GFS & GEM offer a battleground scenario with rain turning to snow from the west. The ECM brings a milder sector over the south west, turning much of the PPN to rain

- GFS & GEM show a continuing battleground scenario, with marginal snowfall possible for some, rain also likely for many. ECM offers better chance of all snow event.

- Further out, GFS slowly introduces milder air over the South West, with rain falling mostly at this stage. ECM & GEM offer further, potentially disruptive snowfall to the South West.

Still a lot to be resolved, especially beyond the weekend, but as things stand its still very much GAME ON!

[Bristawl Si]

Monday looked more interesting.

Sat/Sun maybe ok.

Let's wait and see.

As for NAE and NMM for nearer time forecasts usually better than other models but i do remember GFS being more accurate in t24 a couple of times the other winter for precip locality forecasts.

Exciting times ahead.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Bristle boy

[cerneman]

David Braines forecast on Spotlight only mentions some light snow or sleety over the moors,

[latitude]

Any link to Ians forecast for those who missed it?

[Nights King]

Any link to Ians forecast for those who missed it?

Just search bbc points west on facebook if you have it and it should be uploaded soon

[jtay]

Summarise;

- Small chance of wintriness Saturday evening and night as a front drops south. Nothing significant expected.

Sure I saw IF say earlier (in the MOD) that the raw outputs would be modified for Saturday and his forecast at 6:50pm seemed to reflect this. More snow in the mix further South and earlier in the day.

I'd up that part of the summary to Good chance Sat afternoon and evening.

[AWD]

Monday looked more interesting.

Sat/Sun maybe ok.

Let's wait and see.

As for NAE and NMM for nearer time forecasts usually better than other models but i do remember GFS being more accurate in t24 a couple of times the other winter for precip locality forecasts.

Exciting times ahead.

Potential on Monday from the GFS & GEM, not quite cold enough IMO on the ECM;

However you can clearly see below the colder air returning and increasing the snow potential significantly;

All a long way out yet though, but nice to see.

We have a possibility of something this weekend first, albeit nothing major. I'm excited about the next few weeks though, I got a good feeling about it.

[Mark Parsons]

its a shame you cant see where members are from now...it was easier for me to see what was happening near by

Yeah are our locations gone? Did I miss something?

[Iceberg]

Tonights EC giving us another one of those 50cm runs, two in a few days is pretty good going.

I too havent seen ians forecast yet, so will looking at it when i see the link. Personally i am less inclined towards widespread snow than i was 12 hrs ago, but i trust ians forecasting ability.

[AWD]

Sure I saw IF say earlier (in the MOD) that the raw outputs would be modified for Saturday and his forecast at 6:50pm seemed to reflect this. More snow in the mix further South and earlier in the day.

I'd up that part of the summary to Good chance Sat afternoon and evening.

Ian has access to more data than we do so I would definetly back him for the weekend. All I'm basing my thoughts on is the data we have access to.

Edited January 10, 2013 by AWD

[flyer]

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=512&c=5

Whoops that's jinxed it

[Nights King]

for those that have missed it...

https://www.facebook.com/pointswest

[124alex]

YES!

Sorry I should post more for those that didn't see the weather forecast. Snow for Glos, moving down, even snow over my patch which is surprising. (West Somerset).

Then it looks like all systems go for Monday.

God bless you Ian and all that sail in you!

whats your location?

[liam300]

We need a shift south west for us to see any significant snowfall. Fingers crossed. GFS out next