Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

[khodds]

Looking at the GFS 06z precip type charts.... I know I shouldn't be taking them as gospel, but is it me or do they downgrade things for our region? (At the moment)

[Frosty_wsm]

So the gfs is still rubbish, ecm different from its 00z but in no way is it following the gfs and the ukmo is excellent, personally for me having the ukmo onboard is important, more so than even the ecm as I can recall many a time when both the ecm and the gfs were showing great charts but the ukmo was having none of it and it turned out to be correct.

That's not to say the ukmo is correct in this instance but for me, having it sick to its cold outlook is more important than what the gfs shows, I couldn't care less that's it's now been 4 poor runs in a row from that model.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Smartie

[Lynxus]

Im sure its been posted before, but the difference between models is outstanding.

[Iceberg]

GFS 06z has a weaker system is the main change this has less precip allround for everybody, but still shows 10cm of snow for parts of the cotswolds, forest of dean etc, with a possibility of some for the same areas as last time.

NAE 06 is a nice run upto T48, the cold air is another 10 miles or so further south and west and skirts the dorset boarder now with the cold air before the front arrives. Over the north cots it has dps down to -4 so nothing at all marginal there.

The trend is still our friend which is for the lp to constantly move south and west.

[gottolovethisweather]

Interesting;

@MattHugo81: Just 11 of the 51 EC ENS members support the GFS in terms of bringing in a milder, Atlantic flow...

@MattHugo81: The other 40 members between Tue-Thu of next week either show a 'slider low' or the bulk of the members (21) show an E or NE'ly flow.

@MattHugo81: Milder solutions do become more evident by the end of next week, but clearly that is in the realms of no-mans-land at the moment...

Can't discount the Op, it is a very plausible scenario, but nice to hear the ensembles still favour a colder solution rather than a milder one next week, with possible snowfall.

Still all to play for! Very nerve-wrecking though!

Indeed AWD.

And also it is worth people realising the importance of the ensembles, this taken from the netweather guides.

Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for

anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.

[latitude]

The 06z fizzles out the LP on Saturday to completely nothing compared to 0z run.

[gottolovethisweather]

I like this! ......the battle lines are being drawn as we speak.... The cold army against the warm.... Which will win... Only one way to fine out..........

Yes, I'm telling it as it is and it is also how the MetO currently view things. Fergieweather has said as much in recent days too.

[Lynxus]

I like this! ......the battle lines are being drawn as we speak.... The cold army against the warm.... Which will win... Only one way to fine out..........

[Iceberg]

Indeed AWD.

And also it is worth people realising the importance of the ensembles, this taken from the netweather guides.

Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for

anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.

Its a shame we cant see the ec ENS. re use of ens from gfs, normally i would look for ens means if the operational is so out of kilter, however the their is just no consistence and no grouping of patterns really from the GFS ENS, due to this its very difficult to place any bias towards the gfs compared to the other models. Matts tweat is a good and confirms the general through that cold for next week is very likely still and unsettled is very likely, a combination that i like.

[TwisterGirl81]

On the weather charts for snow risk it's got even less chance for snow on Saturday night/Sunday morning I knew it!

I hope so much it changes because this weather is minging!! We don't need any more dull, cool, rainy weather, we want snowwwwwwwww

[khodds]

Can someone with knowledge please tell me in layman terms if the 06 GFS is better for us or worse so far? I'm reading it as better, but with less precip? Thanks... Sorry for OT but I feel more at home in here!

[Dampdorset82]

On the weather charts for snow risk it's got even less chance for snow on Saturday night/Sunday morning I knew it!

I hope so much it changes because this weather is minging!! We don't need any more dull, cool, rainy weather, we want snowwwwwwwww

i dont mind snow if sticks around for a while I dont like the sludge after id take rain anyday. I like to see fresh falling snow but not the Ice rink after. 2010 looked like drunks all over the place lol

[latitude]

Bloody hell, this GFS is not backing down.

This run gives nothing wintry for the proper SW region.

Gets rid of the cold -5 on Monday lunchtime!!!

What the hell is going on. If the other models back the GFS later.......well wow.

Can someone with knowledge please tell me in layman terms if the 06 GFS is better for us or worse so far? I'm reading it as better, but with less precip? Thanks... Sorry for OT but I feel more at home in here!

see #220

[Dampdorset82]

Can someone with knowledge please tell me in layman terms if the 06 GFS is better for us or worse so far? I'm reading it as better, but with less precip? Thanks... Sorry for OT but I feel more at home in here!

short term its nots bad potential for snow away from coasts sat night/sunday morning, mid range milder weather pushing back in mid next week FI is FI who knows

[khodds]

short term its nots bad potential for snow away from coasts sat night/sunday morning, mid range milder weather pushing back in mid next week FI is FI who knows

Thank you. Hopefully the NAE will give us more hope tonight.

[gottolovethisweather]

Its a shame we cant see the ec ENS. re use of ens from gfs, normally i would look for ens means if the operational is so out of kilter, however the their is just no consistence and no grouping of patterns really from the GFS ENS, due to this its very difficult to place any bias towards the gfs compared to the other models. Matts tweat is a good and confirms the general through that cold for next week is very likely still and unsettled is very likely, a combination that i like.

Ah, but FI is currently around the 14th/15th and there is consistency up until that point. I absolutely only use the GEFS output as a guide to a likely trend thereafter as I'm sure you do.

As for the precipitation, best wait until the NAE/NNM gives us some hints and then I'll only be happy when the timeframe becomes <t+12.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dampdorset82]

Thank you. Hopefully the NAE will give us more hope tonight.

Indeed the NAE will just be in range to forecast with confidence. The issue is with the positioning of the LP moving in 100 miles north or south could make so much difference and its still not pinning it down. Is GFS have a nightmare or is it head and shoulders above the other models......interesting eh?!

[Lynxus]

GFS to me is still showing a good chance of snow for the majority of inland South and SW areas..

[Costa Del Fal]

Hmm on this mornings runs I think for me in Cornwall, probably just rain now. Still time for change.

[latitude]

Indeed the NAE will just be in range to forecast with confidence. The issue is with the positioning of the LP moving in 100 miles north or south could make so much difference and its still not pinning it down. Is GFS have a nightmare or is it head and shoulders above the other models......interesting eh?!

I think Bristol, North Somerset, West Somerset, Devon, Cornwall, West Dorset will see just light rain and drizzle on Saturday into the evening. Higher elevations might see something wintry.

More Eastern regions might see something wintry to lower levels late Saturday night.

It seems Glous, Wiltshire, East Dorest might see something if that cold air mixes in. Higher elevations have a good chance.

At the moment the LP seems to fizzle out quite quickly so by the time it reaches the SE it seems to come to nothing.

Edited January 10, 2013 by latitude

[gottolovethisweather]

Some wise words, contained in this link from two guys with many year's experience. It clearly pays to wait until nearer the timeframe concerned, before attempting to second guess nature.

Whilst only looking at the overnight runs and comparing them to the 12z, it is clear to see there is model suite confusion.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2475293

The 12z runs will be the most reliable now, when it comes to predicting this weekend's wintry mess and its exact positioning.

Edited January 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Ironically the 06z GFS is actually quite interesting in the long term, but we won't go there as I'm not sure how many rollercoaster rides we can all take.

I await the 12z data with great interest & intrepidation.

Lots to be decided yet in the short term, let alone the long term.

[Kiwi]

An article by Matt Hugo here for the AA re the weather this weekend.

http://www.theaa.com/emergency-breakdown-blog/index.jsp

Everyone still guessing which way things will go after the weekend....,.I'm a bit more optimistic about movement from the GFS after looking at the 6z... it's moved the jet further south around 144hr ...maybe it will continue to do so on the12z and 18z

[khodds]

Lol! Just looked at the latest radar, so engrossed in this weekend and beyond, I forgot its going to rain today. Looking like two or three quite intense bands over Cornwall at the moment.

[offerman]

WOW!!! was looking at 3 weather websites and two of them changed there headline and warings at the same time yet different companies.

Anyway take a look at the warning, Mendip,Cotswolds (i`m on edge of these)marlborough in particular but 10cm widely southern Britain, does that mean the areas i mentioned could get more when they say particuarly or just higher chance of 10cm? the areas in the zone are Trwobridge, Frome, warminster, Devices,Westbury and few others.See warning below:

ssued

Thu 10 Jan: 11:00 GMT

Valid Until

Sun 13 Jan : 12:00 GMT

Weather Watch For Ice & Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected across the UK this weekend with temperatures at or below zero for many areas.

Ice on roads will become hazardous over the next 24 hours as a band of rain pushes East into Western and Central England and Wales. Rain also across Eastern areas will freeze overnight leading to icy patches on untreated roads.

A band of Rain, sleet and snow will push into Central and Southern England during Saturday. It is likely that temperatures will be cold enough to allow for accumulations, especially across an area around the Cotswolds, Mendip and Marlborough Hills. However, all areas South of Birmingham should prepare for up to 10cm of snow during Saturday and overnight into Sunday.