Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[goosey007]

Cant believe it days days of model watching and for what heavy rain in south wales and the west been having that all winter!! were the cold gone?

[offerman]

The scandi looks like its rebuilding after the intial sag, then several sliding lows from north at first but others veering in from the southwest looking at those charts.

Looking very very good at present.

[Harsh Climate]

Now comes the convective snow showers from the north sea!

To add to our 20cm+ of snow

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looks like a better orientation of the LP on the UKMO @ T60

[SMU]

Split flow- should hold for England ....

S

[bradymk]

sorry guys on mobile so no analysis from me so far sorry, seeing as though its a better run, could someone confirm if the snow chance has increased westwarsds? im in west wales btw! Thanks guys, ill do a detailed analysis when im home

[John Cox]

At T126, the low over Iceland has moved further west and the high has built over Scandanavia.

This is real progress for extending this cold spell

[SMU]

UKMO ON BOARD AS WELL-

[Southender]

Atlantic doing its best to push in by Thurs. But to be quite frank I couldn't give a monkeys.

Most of the country away from Western extremities could have 10cm+ of snow laying.

[MR EXTREMES]

ukmo aswell

[mike Meehan]

Not overly optimistic about a 'Beast from the East, at the moment - as far as I see it the continental and Scandi temps are a tad too warm for anything meaningful like ice days of -5C and any snow we get it likely to be on the wet side and not long lasting.

There is still time for a situation to develop but a repeat of the December figures on the continent coupled with a strong easterly would be needed, otherwise it is likely to be a case of snow followed by rain then rain followed by snow with max's mainly above zero for my part of the world.

[Summer Sun]

Snow depths by 18:00 Wednesday

Don't underestimate this event it could be a major one with significant snowfall similar to that or maybe more than 2010

[ITSY]

To sum up, this run gives widespread 5-10cms (locally 15cms) Monday/Monday night. Follows on with 5-10cms for Northern, NE, central and Eastern parts on Tuesday/Tuesday night and then will likely produce showers off the North Sea on a stiff ENE/NNE wind - totals for which can't yet be forecasted.

But most places will be unlucky at some point not to see 10cms and indeed central/northern/eastern areas perhaps 15cms or more between Monday and Wednesday.

Lots to play for then, but REMEMBER, this is only one run and is therefore no more likely at this stage than the run we saw earlier which gave Eastern and central areas far far less.

Awaiting UKMO with much interest now.

[TEITS]

So at last we have good agreement for +96.

Frontal snowfalls followed by a good old fashioned convective E,ly.

Fanbloodytastic 12Zs.

[abovefreezing]

Not overly optimistic about a 'Beast from the East, at the moment - as far as I see it the continental and Scandi temps are a tad too warm for anything meaningful like ice days of -5C and any snow we get it likely to be on the wet side and not long lasting.

There is still time for a situation to develop but a repeat of the December figures on the continent coupled with a strong easterly would be needed, otherwise it is likely to be a case of snow followed by rain then rain followed by snow with max's mainly above zero for my part of the world.

a) thats not model discussion

B) You commited the sin of IMBY post, yet we don't know where you are, since your location is not filled in.

Mods please feel free to delete this. Just when the model runs look exciting, we start to see all this IMBY nonsense.

[MR EXTREMES]

t144 is the breaking point for cold spell although most likely surface cold.

but certainly a nice blast of winter not a 09/10 sustained event but enough for us to be excited about.

[london-snow]

Lovely jubbly in my cockney London accent rubbing my cold hands with joy...

Edited January 11, 2013 by london-snow

[ICETAB]

Cant believe it days days of model watching and for what heavy rain in south wales and the west been having that all winter!! were the cold gone?

I know. Some of the posts in here need to be moved to the regional me thinks...

[nick sussex]

Utter chaos! the models are going to implode soon!

The UKMO at 120hrs is wildly different with the upstream pattern but very interesting, could develop much better than the GFS but really we have no idea whats happening past 96hrs!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Snow depths by 18:00 Wednesday

Don't underestimate this event it could be a major one with significant snowfall similar to that or maybe more than 2010

I'm loving the pink spot directly over my houseUKMO looks similarly snowy, and within 72 hours:

The best part is that the warm sector doesn't really come into play other than for the very western edges of the British Isles. This could be huge.

[The Northern Ramper]

Nearing 20 in some parts!

That 14 is my house, bank.

[Mark Bayley]

The UKMO gives us an undercut, i.e. more snow and prolongs the cold! Although quite different to the GFS, which highlights the uncertainty. Still good agreement on Monday now, with snow for quite a few. So who will the ECM side with (if any)? Hopefully nearer the UKMO.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[TEITS]

A stunning UKMO at +144,

We might have agreement for +96 but differences appear after that.

[nick sussex]

Never has there been such continued differences, the GFS and UKMO at 144hrs are in different universes!

If you want extended cold hope that the UKMO has the right trend!

[kold weather]

UKMO is amazing...believe it or not ...MUCH better than the GFS for sustained cold!

It is quite possible for that evolution to come off, especially if the vortext doesn't put as much energy across the atlantic like the GFS op runs have been attempting to do in recent runs.