Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[Bobby]

Utter chaos! the models are going to implode soon!

The UKMO at 120hrs is wildly different with the upstream pattern but very interesting, could develop much better than the GFS but really we have no idea whats happening past 96hrs!

I know, the differences at just short time frames are silly and I find it hard to take them seriously beyond 3 days or so. UKMO definitely much better longer term.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Bobby

[Southender]

Pressure building fast over Scandi in the mid-range as well on the GFS. Interesting.

UKMO @ 144 can I just say...... "WTF"

Edited January 11, 2013 by Shrimper

[latitude]

So at last we have good agreement for +96.

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?11-17

Frontal snowfalls followed by a good old fashioned convective E,ly.

Fanbloodytastic 12Zs.

GFS looks better for SW members, but mostly rain. How does the UKMETO compare regarding westward position of cold uppers?

Edited January 11, 2013 by latitude

[Buzz]

Given the noticeable differences between the GFS and UKMO at a mere 96 hours I'm certainly not putting any stock in anything past 72 hours.

Compare and contrast:

GFS at 96 hours:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0

UKMO at 96 hours:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

[MR EXTREMES]

Utter chaos! the models are going to implode soon!

The UKMO at 120hrs is wildly different with the upstream pattern but very interesting, could develop much better than the GFS but really we have no idea whats happening past 96hrs!

yes ukmo wants the greeny high now this will be intresting to see gfs says over uk and ukmo into greenland omg here we go again but atleast we got something exciting coming in the realiable timeframe.

[mulzy]

Steve M's slider at 120 perfectly illustrated on the UKMO run

Edited January 11, 2013 by mulzy

[dragan]

Is this win win!!?

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS looks better for SW members, but mostly rain. How does the UKMETO compare regarding westward position of cold uppers?

Everything much further west, snow for all by midday Monday I'd imagine:

[WINTRY WALES]

How accurate are these precip type chats??

This suggst rain west of the midlands but some charts suggesting only far western areas not seeing snow.

Any help?

Edited January 11, 2013 by WINTRY WALES

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs even out to t168 has surface cold so some low night minima aswell brillant model watching very exciting.

[Yarmy]

Must. Remain. Calm. And. On. Topic.

Today's 12z T84

v

Yesterday's 6z T114

[huw1985]

Models are showing significant snowfall for a majority of Central and Eastern England T72 onwards. At T-144 the MET office and GFS are poles appart.

Extremely disappointing run MBY perspective (Cardiff); we have had an enormous amount of rain here in the West already and if the GFS comes off we will get another bucketting. Hoping either for a further westward correction of the snowline or for a much drier picture.

[seabreeze86]

UKMO at 144 hrs is amazing would love there to be a 168 chart.

Lets hope its a trend setter, will have to do with two frontal snow events and convective snow off the north sea i will take that anyday.

[Liam J]

The UKMO is showing a pretty epic snow event for the majority during Monday, add that amount of ppn to the upper cold pool of air = chaos! An amazing turn on the 12z's so far. Now what can the ECM serve up

[snowblizzard]

10-25cm widely across the UK!

Isn't that mm's?

[chionomaniac]

OMG the UKMO T+144 is great. It is exactly the area that we should not have the PV placed so no surprise to see that potential. Only pity is that it is FI.

Fantastic output for cold lovers so far this afternoon.

[Panayiotis]

At 171hrs this is what can happen, the low could go over the Scandi high or go under it, however more likely it will go over it, this will bring the heights from the south and place them north which is what we want for sustained cold..

[seabreeze86]

UKMO at 144 hrs is amazing would love there to be a 168 chart.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?11-17

Lets hope its a trend setter, will have to do with two frontal snow events and convective snow off the north sea i will take that anyday.

But uncertainty remains the form horse after 96 hrs though. Fantastic Model watching, My wife keeps asking if i am ever going to get off this laptop i have just told her no not until spring

Edited January 11, 2013 by seabreeze86

[Southender]

LOL.

GFS keeping EA/SE very cold all week and another slider on Saturday.

FI of course.

[bybo1999]

Isn't that mm's?

Im sure 1mm of rain = 1cm of SNOW!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by bybo1999

[ITSY]

Right.

the only thing that the two models have in common is that BOTH upgrade the snow event on Monday to either widespread 5-10cms or perhaps even locally 10-15cms.

After that they go in different directions, with GFS creating a snowy decline out of cold and UKMO easing on the widespread snow (emphasis on widespread) only to create an omega block with LP ready to undercut and take us to Narnia.

What the others will do is unknown right now but Monday looks increasingly snowy for the most part.

Now, in the words of Rob Mclwee, how often can you say that?!

[snowblues]

If them lows dropping down from the tip of Greenland on the gfs aboutT108 are a little less proggresive,iwondered if the Atlantic high might push up towards Iceland.With a much stronger push from the east after.

[Southender]

Just for fun.

Atlantic hits a brick wall next Saturday.

[bluearmy]

just a comment that gfs has the snow monday as rain for the se corner (inc home counties) as the centre of the shortwave moves across. (leading edge and back edge is snow). whether thats likely is a moot point. Dp's away from southern coastal counties stay zero or below

[East Herts Snow]

Isn't that mm's?

1 mm of rain equals approximately 1 cm of snow. Although if the snow is drier it can total more (in a true very cold Easterly the snow is normally very dry and accumulates much more).

So basically 10 mm of rainfall will equate to approximately 10 cm of snow.

Edited January 11, 2013 by East Herts Snow