Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[swfc]

Jma run looks an ideal run to be fair altho not the most respected.Really good do with an upgrade on the 12oz.will it happen ,probably not but its better to live in hope than die in rotherham

[Harsh Climate]

3.30pm, key time will be 72-120 imo which will be around 3.50-4.10pm, to see if the shortwave moves southeast and to see if we get an undercut.

Also worth keeping an eye over to the east of iceland, svalbard, if we can have less shortwave activity up there will bode very well for the rest of the run.

[MR EXTREMES]

What I can see through this mirky period ahead is that there is no strong signal to come through for a STRONG block until last week to thrird of Jan, which leads us down the path of high drama. Some will be disappointed but I suspect many will do rather well out of this. More snow and cold than not I suggest as a general theme.

BBC SE suggests ice day on Monday with risk of significant snowfall Mon eve....any front bumping into such cold air any precip will no doubt be snow. Fax shown by Phil is very good for central south, SE.

BFTP

to be honest im less confident of the strat event i think its to late in winter and the vortex is really had a massive influence this winter so far and once the alantic dominated pattern sets in id strongly be against the strat having a mjor effect.

i do hope im wrong i think the continued presents of the azores heights is one factor that has also been more of a feature in the last two winters but overall the vortex has been the main driver although in 09/10 it was not and the day in day out spotless sun really did inpact well i do think overall sun activityhas risen sharply compaired to the last few years and i have been watching closely for a slow down in activity if anything its rising pretty high.

this said i dont have a crystal ball i just feel that things are against us this winter.

but overall this is an exciting event and compaired to last year i will be just happy to see a week of cold and perhaps some white stuff.

[Harsh Climate]

Undercutting low towards iceland further south at 42h, already a great start to the 12z!

*A little less energy towards svalbard

*Blocking high in the atlantic a tad further north.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Timmytour]

Early days but still changes even in such a short time frame with 12z GFS. whether they are significant remains to be seen...but i like the way the warm 5 uppers are a tad further west already

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Undercutting low towards iceland further south at 42h, already a great start to the 12z!

A little less energy towards svalbard also.

It looks slightly better orientated to

[cooling climate]

quote name='nick sussex' timestamp='1357913129' post='2479749

Now if you look through the last few days we've seen a slow erosion of those heights to the north in the outputs.

/quote

Yes while we were drooling over the last couple of days outputs by the ECM the

pattern was slowly becoming less amplified.Whether the models are correct remains

to be seen still although like others I believe the models are underplaying heights

to our n/ne and we should keep a cold wintry pattern for much of the UK.

I am surprised at what NOAA are saying about the east Pacific ridge and hundson bay

trough coupled with a Greeny high, you only have to look through the Archives to see

such teleconnections such as 23.11.10 late November 2010.

[Harsh Climate]

It looks slightly better orientated to

This run will at very least be on par with 6z but I suspect a bit better ; )

[london-snow]

hmmm...

00z & 06z have not been bad but not brilliant over the past few days.

12z & 18z have been much improved and better on the overall pattern going forward over the past few days.

A possible trend perhaps considering the GFS 12z is looking looking good in early frames.....

[Weathizard]

GFS 12z almost an exact replica of the GME 12z. Ceraintly a far better run even within 60hrs

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS 12Z finally completes its long road back to the Euro fold:

Finally, consensus at +60

[Snowy Liverpool]

That shortwave is definitely a bit more south than on the 06z. Now it just depends on where the Atlantic low and the shortwave link up.

[Paul T]

much more ppn from the appraoching low with slightly better 850 profile, further west.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130111/12/63/6hrprecip.png

[SMU]

As expected the GFS is corrected westwards-

If everyone in the SE sucks in we can pull that upper air cold pool over us!!

PPN monday is VERY fast but substantial on this run

S

[weathersupremacy]

Big snowfall Monday 13:00 @ T72.

[Eskimo]

GFS looks to be following the ECM! :D

[Wilxy]

It sinks thats quite a change at only 72h away just shows that FI is now closer than i thought.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Again we have that pesky shortwave from the low to the west of Greenland trying to move to Iceland and link up above us rather than below. Just as we sort one shortwave problem out another one pops up.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

So basically FI is around Saturday tea-time !! Upper temps looking good for Monday #SnowMageddon

[5thchang]

Thats more like it

[Harsh Climate]

Monday afternoon down the spine of the country!!

Rather than a prolonged period of snow monday I think it would more likely be a couple of hours of heavy snow, as this does look like being one of those narrow active fronts.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[weathersupremacy]

13:00 -19:00 - lots of snow for many areas in England if the latest couple of frames verify. Travel disruption for rush hour a concern for many.

[Wayneywoo]

Heights around Svalbard definitely looking better on this run than on the 6z. I think this will be a run to savour!

LP already heading south at T+72!

[dec10snow]

Hi guys could someone quickly update me on what the models have shown today, as I've been at school, with no way to keep up! Especially snow risk for Somerset tomorrow?! Thanks

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Blimey there really will be some substantial snow country wide if GFS 12z for Monday comes off