North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z GFS downgrades snow risk again. Even the first front looks ropey near the coast now. Snow chances for west of the M6 are all but diminished on Monday now.

[cfallon]

GFS a bit marginal for any longjevity of snowfall / lasting far west but an absolutely snorting upgrade for me.

Was just about to go and look! You better not be teasing!

[Bartlett Low]

Great post backtrack, fantastic stuff, testament to the amount of time you spend on the site. Impressed.

[Backtrack]

Great post backtrack, fantastic stuff, testament to the amount of time you spend on the site. Impressed.

Cheers

18z GFS downgrades snow risk again. Even the first front looks ropey near the coast now. Snow chances for west of the M6 are all but diminished on Monday now.

GFS is on it's own. Met Office don't use it most of the time for a reason.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Backtrack

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is on it's own. Met Office don't use it for a reason.

Jordan, I've often found the GFS more accurate than mesoscale models such as the NAE. If we see snow falling (and settling) on Monday I'll happily eat my words but it's all far too marginal for us I'm afraid.

Edited January 12, 2013 by CreweCold

[Stephen_Mcr]

Movement in the wrong direction on the GFS.

[feb1991blizzard]

Jordan, I've often found the GFS more accurate than mesoscale models such as the NAE. If we see snow falling (and settling) on Monday I'll happily eat my words

You should get some sunday night though crewe according to both GFS and NAE (latest runs)

[karyo]

Jordan, I've often found the GFS more accurate than mesoscale models such as the NAE. If we see snow falling (and settling) on Monday I'll happily eat my words but it's all far too marginal for us I'm afraid.

Monday's chances are downgraded with every run!

[Backtrack]

Jordan, I've often found the GFS more accurate than mesoscale models such as the NAE. If we see snow falling (and settling) on Monday I'll happily eat my words but it's all far too marginal for us I'm afraid.

It's looking marginal yes, but it always was on the west coast.

Oh god, don't do that. Remember when I had to eat my socks? :lol:

[Cheshire Freeze]

Monday's chances are downgraded with every run!

Indeed.

[Backtrack]

Probably should of waited till the 18z to compose my post on the previous page, but the GFS is certainly on it's own here, however it is sticking to its guns, which is worrying.

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

Cheers for the Help Guys.

[Cheese Rice]

Jordan, I've often found the GFS more accurate than mesoscale models such as the NAE. If we see snow falling (and settling) on Monday I'll happily eat my words but it's all far too marginal for us I'm afraid.

Surely higher resolution mesoscale models such as the NAE & NMM are capable at accurately projecting the weather 24 hours out? Much more so than GFS. I've never found the GFS to be right over the NMM or the NAE. Granted the NAE has a tendency to over-egg snowfall predictions while the NMM perhaps underestimates wintry potential.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[Cheshire Freeze]

Probably should of waited till the 18z to compose my post on the previous page, but the GFS is certainly on it's own here, however it is sticking to its guns, which is worrying.

It's quite possible that some of us in NW England won't see any lying snow at all in this spell (as far as we can see out to). Disappointing indeed. The thought of those further east boasting etc is winding me up already. I fear for the health of my laptop!

[feb1991blizzard]

Was just about to go and look! You better not be teasing!

Oh hang on, the uppers look really marginal now on the GFS though less than -5c, cant afford anymore eastward correction, its an upgrade if it all falls as snow for us, not as good for other members and i do see where crewecold is coming from now, a bit risky.

Surely higher resolution mesoscale models such as the NAE & NMM are capable at accurately projecting the weather 24 hours out? Much more so than GFS. I've never found the GFS to be right over the NMM or the NAE. Granted the NAE has a tendency to over-egg snowfall predictions while the NMM perhaps underestimates wintry potential.

Dont you find with the NAE though that it is very hit and miss with snow, one event its very good and the next its way off even at T12, there is no inbetween with it, although i think its worse with convective snowfall wheras frontal its not as bad.

[Backtrack]

Surely higher resolution mesoscale models such as the NAE & NMM are capable at accurately projecting the weather 24 hours out? Much more so than GFS. I've never found the GFS to be right over the NMM or the NAE. Granted the NAE has a tendency to over-egg snowfall predictions while the NMM perhaps underestimates wintry potential.

The higher resolution gives the NAE & NMM the edge, although we can't discount the GFS's consistency here. It's a case of now casting.

It's quite possible that some of us in NW England won't see any lying snow at all in this spell (as far as we can see out to). Disappointing indeed. The thought of those further east boasting etc is winding me up already. I fear for the health of my laptop!

Isn't that always the way though? :lol:

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 18z looking good from a longjevity point of view, shortwave taking more energy under the block quicker, should be a belter coming up this.

[Bartlett Low]

Just been out, clouds seem to be rolling in on what looks like a NNE.

If we had just had a few days of higher pressure, maybe a lingering ground frost I might have a bit more confidence that it might be an all snow event given the lower level wind direction at the moment. It's a good sign IMO.

I will say as we'll that at least the attack is from the NW a direction we can do well from. I know there is a lot of less cold air coming behind but it's not your usual "breakdown" attack from the SW which never deliver.

See how it pans out, I note the timing has been pushed forward a few hours so my daughter might getto see some snow before bed!

[Bartlett Low]

Should read ENE in above post

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the slider, for our region we need the block further North as well as further West, so that we tap into tighter isobars before they sink in order to get any convection over the pennines.

Edited January 12, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheese Rice]

Dont you find with the NAE though that it is very hit and miss with snow, one event its very good and the next its way off even at T12, there is no inbetween with it, although i think its worse with convective snowfall wheras frontal its not as bad.

The thing is though it's easy to criticise the NAE as we all watch the projection of snowfall like a hawk, the GFS outputs are really in the most broadest sense when it comes to PPN type, so no one ever criticizes this side of its output. There's a similar discussion on the Yorks thread where I posted this....

I'd put my bet on the higher resolution models no doubt about it.

As a general rule the NAE has the following tendencies-

- Overestimate snowfall potential

- Poor timing of fronts by generally 2-3 hours (a surprisingly common occurrence)

- Project precipitation on a broad scale rather than pinpointing small features

The NMM

- Underestimate snowfall potential

- Over analysing the intensity of fronts leading to incoherent outputs

Edited January 12, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[davacr123]

Just been outside and heard a goose flying west may be a good sign

[Cheshire Freeze]

How close is this.....

Either way the Pennines will get buried

[feb1991blizzard]

Was just about to go and look! You better not be teasing!

NAE says some heavy falls on monday. marginal west though.

[Bartlett Low]

18z gfs, great charts in general but not much to interest us here in terms of snow potential after monday. But the cold is in place and not budging so anything could happen next week..