North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[Bartlett Low]

I did not know it went that quick in Manchester last feb, we maintained a good cover for a week and some sort of cover after that.

No, you are right, got the wrong "event"... Did last for a bit..we got burgled at the Sherlock was trying to take footprints from the snow.

But it was a poor show really. A lot more snow further east where I work to be honest and that what I'm envisaging again.

[The Northern Ramper]

@MattHugo81: 12z UKMO MESO model has a significant now fall event for N Eng between 6pm and midnight tmoz especially above 150-200m.

[feb1991blizzard]

What are my chances in Congleton for getting a decent amount of snow? Thanks

As it stands you could get a couple of cms tommorow but i am guessing your altitude is between 90 and 152m ASL, the contours are too much hassle to trace on google maps so i googled and one site came up with 96, the other 150, you might get more, you might get less, i dont rate your chances for monday though.

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

How do I check my elevation then? Just checked on gps visualiser and i got 382M ASL.

[Bartlett Low]

Can't believe the Preston posts of 70-80 year olds not seeing more than 2010. I mean all those years.

Was a big event but when I was a kid in 81 I was living in South Wales and there were drifts 6 foot deep. We were climing walls n jumping into the drifts. only time I saw similar was driving back route from Huddersfield (2010 again though) and cars parallel parked next to hedges had been dug out and re-parked in the same spot. Looked like private car igloos. Amazing!

[Nbrasso]

As it stands you could get a couple of cms tommorow but i am guessing your altitude is between 90 and 152m ASL, the contours are too much hassle to trace on google maps so i googled and one site came up with 96, the other 150, you might get more, you might get less, i dont rate your chances for monday though.

Well thanks for taking the time to look, I appreciate it tbh it's not the quantity of snow that concerns me it's that it may melt if it turns to rain.

[cfallon]

How do I check my elevation then? Just checked on gps visualiser and i got 382M ASL.

You are 38m

[Iceaxecrampon]

In Windermere today visiting relatives - glorious day - did the easy 20 minute stroll to Orrest Head - yes the Easterly was bearing it's teeth saw a snow shower pass over Ullswater way - Great Langdale had a sparse covering of snow tempting but seen better - all change for Sunday - Monday - looking good for tomorrow afternoon back in Lancashire and another reload Monday? - heres hoping! but my location too near coastal on the Fylde - maybe?

Ian

Edited January 12, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[feb1991blizzard]

Well thanks for taking the time to look, I appreciate it tbh it's not the quantity of snow that concerns me it's that it may melt if it turns to rain.

Dont hold me to it though, upgrades and downgrades possible right up until the event.

[The Northern Ramper]

How do I check my elevation then? Just checked on gps visualiser and i got 382M ASL.

I doubt it's that high and I know the area.

Snow wise you should get a few cm's Sinday night but Monday is unclear for us all.

[Nbrasso]

Dont hold me to it though, upgrades and downgrades possible right up until the event.

I understand that, I will be keeping a close eye on this thread.

[zEROwantsnow]

What are the chances in Blackburn, east?

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

Surely got to be more than 38M though if congleton is somewhere between 95-150?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Can't believe the Preston posts of 70-80 year olds not seeing more than 2010. I mean all those years.

Was a big event but when I was a kid in 81 I was living in South Wales and there were drifts 6 foot deep. We were climing walls n jumping into the drifts. only time I saw similar was driving back route from Huddersfield (2010 again though) and cars parallel parked next to hedges had been dug out and re-parked in the same spot. Looked like private car igloos. Amazing!

Father is 86 (I was born in Nov 62) he said 62-63 was "interesting" - he missed 47 because he was a serving soldier abroad - but - said 2010 was bloody cold!

Ian

[The Northern Ramper]

What are the chances in Blackburn, east?

Snow Sunday night, Monday is unclear.

[feb1991blizzard]

You are 38m

We talking about Hyde, i have just gone on google maps and a fair bit is as high as 200m, i am suprised because coming in from the snake pass it seems all down hill to Manchester from Glossop and Glossop is 200 -280m so you might be right, it depends on what road he lives on, to check altitude go to google maps, zoom in until the terrain option on right menu becomes available and follow contours, only problem is when you have flat ground there seems less labels on the contours so its hard, its easy for my area because its very rugged terrain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Surely got to be more than 38M though if congleton is somewhere between 95-150?

google earth, type in postcode, best way of finding elevation

[The Northern Ramper]

I wonder if any of those showers will get over the Pennines tonight?

[Bartlett Low]

Father is 86 (I was born in Nov 62) he said 62-63 was "interesting" - he missed 47 because he was a serving soldier abroad - but - said 2010 was bloody cold!

Ian

He was right about that for sure Ian!

[Backtrack]

As promised, my analysis of the upcoming fronts:

First off, starting with tomorrow afternoon, the front will be making inroads from the north west, Northern Ireland is out of the picture for snow, the ECM makes it clear why, uppers of just 0C for the most part, for our region we're looking at uppers of around -6C, maybe a little lower.

As you can see from the two charts below, the first being the ECM, the second the GFS chart at T+24

There are in fact some minor differences, even at this time frame. The ECM seems to have a slightly more westward shift than the GFS, and because of the higher resolution the ECM is run at, I would expect the GFS to fall in line with it's higher resolution partner, giving a slight correction westwards (benefiting us). The more westward correction reflected by the charts, the better as the mild sector will stay out west, although on the ECM, the mild sector is virtually non-existent.

Compare the minor differences to the UKMO, which has a much greater westward correction, and NO mild sector. Ideally, this is the outcome we would like to come into fruition.

That's how it's looking before the fronts arrive. Now the first front will arrive at T+30, so let's take a look at that.

For this we will be using only the GFS & UKMO as the ECM's closest is the 24hr chart as seen above. The first chart is the GFS, the second the UKMO.

As you can see, there's no problems with the first front's arrival, the uppers are convective to snow even right on the coast, being around the -6/-7C mark, all fine and dandy here. Not going to bother posting the precipitation charts for this time frame as they can and will change right up to the final hour, although right now the initial front looks like delivering mainly light snow to the region as it decays moving eastwards, not expecting much of a covering from this one, I'd say 1-2cm at best from this, a little more over the higher ground.

Now this is where the problem lies, a mild sector at 850hpa, and possibly further down in the atmosphere. Not all of the models show this mild sector, in fact the GFS is pretty much on it's own with regards to the sector, although this does not mean it can be discounted, there is some support for it, this will most certainly be a case of 'watch the lamppost'.

The secondary, more problematic, 'beefier' front arrives at T+45.

Starting firstly with the GFS:

Already with this chart you can see where the problem lies, that -2C isotherm line (over the entire region at one point on the GFS a few hours earlier) is dangerously close to causing a nasty freezing rain event. The GFS has a much worse eastern tilt to the isotherms. Compare this to the higher resolution ECM at +48

As you can see, that milder isotherm is WELL to the south west, suggesting that the secondary front does not draw in milder air with it for us in the west.

Next up, the UKMO:

Notice the correlation with the ECM? It has us under even colder air, -6C 850hpa temperatures, meaning there would be no rain at all, even for coastal regions.

Myself, I would probably go somewhere in between the ECM and UKMO, I cannot see the GFS outdoing these two models at such a close time-frame. Not only this, other models such as the GEM & NOGAPS also say no to a milder sector.

FAX not looking too bad too, evident why the Met Office have the warning out for our region, there is some real potential here.

The FAX has us inside the 528 DAM line the whole time, although as you can see from the below GFS, we're just on the boundary between rain & snow. At T+48 when the front arrives, a little iffy, but even if the GFS proves to be correct, it should stay as snow for a time during Monday morning.

And finally the precipitation charts. UKMO offering the heaviest precipitation up the NW England from the first front.

We then move on to the second front with the T+48 & T+60 charts

A good few hours of wintryness to be had, especially if the NAE is correct! (I'm told the Met Office do actually use this model)

It then just goes into overdrive and gives us an absolute PLASTERING

Beyond then it's anyone's guess. Good luck all.

[feb1991blizzard]

What are the chances in Blackburn, east?

Very good according to Jay wynnes latest forecast, ties in with Matt Hugos tweet, a few cm possible.

[Iceaxecrampon]

You have to laugh.....

Lancashire (Fylde) snowdome fully functional and up and running!

Ian

Edited January 12, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[cfallon]

Surely got to be more than 38M though if congleton is somewhere between 95-150?

Ye soz my mistake just checked your 158m asl

[guvnor22002]

http://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm

keep zooming in till you see your location then click on map

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS a bit marginal for any longjevity of snowfall / lasting far west but an absolutely snorting upgrade for me.