North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[Snow free zone]

Re the snow map above. Fairly accurate in my opinion.

What i cant get my head round ..... i work just north of Carnforth nearer the coast that Preston .... they almost always do better out of these set ups than we do here and there is often snow at work whilst none here. Last year case in point Preston no snow - further up they'd had more than a few cm's. Seems they are more sheltered from the Irish Sea effect up there.

Guessing at the depths West of the M6 by monday night little or no cover, more favoured eastern areas between 5 & 10 cms.

[Barmada Casten]

I think the Lake District will do well, particular Windermere/Ambleside area.

[SparkleS]

Its always the north east with snow, my friends just said it was snowing up there 2 hours ago....grrrrr

[chris78]

Re the snow map above. Fairly accurate in my opinion.

What i cant get my head round ..... i work just north of Carnforth nearer the coast that Preston .... they almost always do better out of these set ups than we do here and there is often snow at work whilst none here. Last year case in point Preston no snow - further up they'd had more than a few cm's. Seems they are more sheltered from the Irish Sea effect up there.

Guessing at the depths West of the M6 by monday night little or no cover, more favoured eastern areas between 5 & 10 cms.

funny isnt it ...Ive had arguments over the last few years on here..with people who think Im exaggerating about how little snow Preston gets (my father swears 2010 was the snowiest he has ever seen Preston hes 74,).....but on the plus side its not too much of a drive to find some snow!

[Darren Bown]

Its 0c here in BL5. It feels decidedly cold with that cold easterly wind digging in.

[davacr123]

Just seen this met office fax for tues has the 528 line out past Northern Ireland with occluded front coming from the east looking good in my eyes anyway

[SP1986]

I think it'll turn to rain this far west but I'm expecting some snow overnight Sunday into Monday

[iand61]

Really don't know what to expect from tommorow into Monday! I am keeping stump till after the next set of mods are out then I will make my prediction!

You're in a decent area for snow chances both tomorrow and Monday and it would take a major downgrade to not get a good covering out of it. What we need though is for it to remain as snow until the end and then be followed by a hard frost to hopefully set the scene for further falls in the coming days.

[cfallon]

I thought it was really looking good at one point, then it downgraded, then Jay wynne's forecast a couple of hours ago was very good but the last 3 he has not shown a graphic for anytime after 1500 tommorow so must be uncertainty again, the Met office map as i said still looks very promising.

My thoughts exactly! Waiting till the 18z to see whats nailed on! I think it will swing either way snowfest or snow misery!

You're in a decent area for snow chances both tomorrow and Monday and it would take a major downgrade to not get a good covering out of it. What we need though is for it to remain as snow until the end and then be followed by a hard frost to hopefully set the scene for further falls in the coming days.

Ye true mate, 350 asl so slightly higher. Looking towards rest of week looks cold and frosty

Edited January 12, 2013 by cfallon

[ICETAB]

It is possible that all of the precipitation will fall as snow. If you get settling snow from the first band then the chances of the next front staying as snow increases. The ECM and UKMO models deal with the warm sector quicker. It looks like the warm air mixes out in the right time periods.

Some people might get a nice supprise me thinks

Fingers crossed!

[Snow free zone]

funny isnt it ...Ive had arguments over the last few years on here..with people who think Im exaggerating about how little snow Preston gets (my father swears 2010 was the snowiest he has ever seen Preston hes 74,).....but on the plus side its not too much of a drive to find some snow!

My dad is ten years older and he said the same thing. He's lived here all his life. Luckily for him he doesn't really like snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

After last winter I just want a covering that stays around longer than a couple of hours.

The ironic thing is that with all the background signals favouring us i could still end up with less than last winter, i had a 3 incher in feb, a 2 incher in dec, a few other dustings in dec, another half incher in feb, and quite a lot of spectacular views with mountain cover even when there was none here and experienced the biggest fall i have ever seen in an April and the last tiny bit was still left on the mountain top in mid April, so far i have had a couple of occasions of a few flakes and a slush freezing over and turning to an inch of ice event so far, so to cut a long story short, the winter with rubbish background signals could end up out doing the good one in terms of total snow cover although its heavy odds on that the ave temp will be a couple of deg lower this winter.

[karyo]

The minimum for Manchester tonight according to the bbc forecast is -1c but if the skies stay clear like they are now, I think it will be more like -2c or -3c.

I am almost certain that much of the region will see snow turning to rain on Monday but I just hope that the precipitation moves out of the region as soon as this happens and the ground is cold enough to retain the snow cover. After that, the rest of the week is looking very cold so any snow cover will last.

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

The minimum for Manchester tonight according to the bbc forecast is -1c but if the skies stay clear like they are now, I think it will be more like -2c or -3c.

I am almost certain that much of the region will see snow turning to rain on Monday but I just hope that the precipitation moves out of the region as soon as this happens and the ground is cold enough to retain the snow cover. After that, the rest of the week is looking very cold so any snow cover will last.

Karyo

Yes and although the South East will ge pasted on the ECM / UKMO evolution i would not be suprised to see one or two convective snow showers make it across the pennines before that aforementioned snow threat becomes confined to the extreme SE although probably not anything noteworthy.

[Bartlett Low]

Anything modelled as anywhere near marginal always ends up a slushy mess here.

I'm expecting a temporary covering, largely gone by Monday pm as per last February.

[karyo]

Yes and although the South East will ge pasted on the ECM / UKMO evolution i would not be suprised to see one or two convective snow showers make it across the pennines before that aforementioned snow threat becomes confined to the extreme SE although probably not anything noteworthy.

It is ironic that the east will not only do well from the frontal system on Monday but also have the snow showers to look forward too afterwards as the east/northeasterly brreze develops. Anyway, as I said earlier I am looking forward to a cold week for a change!

Karyo

[Bartlett Low]

Be great if it was a staller over our region...

No, not gonna happen. Some model runs earlier in the week showed a few corkers in that respect for later in the week.

[feb1991blizzard]

Anything modelled as anywhere near marginal always ends up a slushy mess here.

I'm expecting a temporary covering, largely gone by Monday pm as per last February.

I did not know it went that quick in Manchester last feb, we maintained a good cover for a week and some sort of cover after that.

[The Northern Ramper]

keep us updated on the rain front,there is no chance you will see rain

and i also reckon within 15miles of the coast it will also be snow all the way

and so did the METO on the 17.30 forecast

C.S

The light rain is still there Monday afternoon and then cloud.

This is from the met office app

[feb1991blizzard]

It is ironic that the east will not only do well from the frontal system on Monday but also have the snow showers to look forward too afterwards as the east/northeasterly brreze develops. Anyway, as I said earlier I am looking forward to a cold week for a change!

Karyo

Ive been there mate, stuck in salford in feb 2009 while 8 miles East it was a foot deep in places and we did not even get a covering that lasted more than an hour.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I did not know it went that quick in Manchester last feb, we maintained a good cover for a week and some sort of cover after that.

Didnt go that quick here, still piles of snow by the friday

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

Hi guys, I am in Hyde(about 6 miles east of Manchester) 382m ASL. What would you say my chances of snow are in the next couple of days.

[Stephen_Mcr]

The minimum for Manchester tonight according to the bbc forecast is -1c but if the skies stay clear like they are now, I think it will be more like -2c or -3c.

I am almost certain that much of the region will see snow turning to rain on Monday but I just hope that the precipitation moves out of the region as soon as this happens and the ground is cold enough to retain the snow cover. After that, the rest of the week is looking very cold so any snow cover will last.

Karyo

Thinking the same - hoping for a decent covering and then a fizzle out, think that's the best scenario as it stands for here. It's a shame because I'm sure any snow sticking after Monday will see the week out, it just has to survive the backend rain.

All eyes on the evening output, a slight shift is all it'll take for something decent, even a degree or so lower dewpoint....

[The Northern Ramper]

Hi guys, I am in Hyde(about 6 miles east of Manchester) 382m ASL. What would you say my chances of snow are in the next couple of days.

There is no way that Hyde is 382m above sea level, feet more like.

[Nbrasso]

What are my chances in Congleton for getting a decent amount of snow? Thanks