North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[itsnowjoke]

Doubt it'd be snow anyway - it's a little warm right now, uppers are only around -5C..

They turned the online feature off to save the database from crashing.

oh ok thanks arggh the waiting is doing my head in.

Well stressed out

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It is best to have low expectations to avoid disappointment! There is nothing worse than expecting snow and ending up with rain!

Karyo

I have low expectations of 12Z's, dreading them trending to ECMWF setup, the control on 06Z is awful,

[karyo]

I have low expectations of 12Z's, dreading them trending to ECMWF setup, the control on 06Z is awful,

That's for the further outlook but it won't have an effect on tomorrow and Monday.

We do need a long cold spell though rather than a brief one.

[chiffer]

Surely tomorrow would be worse to the northwest of Manchester rather than just general west? I think everyones in with a shot though.

[feb1991blizzard]

i have a bad felling the majority of this region is going to be looking enviously to the east south east come monday,those in saddleworth ie east of the region and esp those with altitude might get a covering,but west of manchester i think is going to be alet down

Is your fear based on precipitation dying out or on marginality, i have a feeling the west might do better than me tommorow evening as it may die out judging by Eno Erouter's bulletin on the lunchtime news.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Is your fear based on precipitation dying out or on marginality, i have a feeling the west might do better than me tommorow evening as it may die out judging by Eno Erouter's bulletin on the lunchtime news.

Just what I was thinking, West midlands and NW England looks best placed for 1st front, fizzles out over the east, its the 2nd front thats more iffy, and will be best for places further east

[macc2013]

Has there been a upgrade or downgrade for areas like Macclesfield?

[chiffer]

Well Macclesfield including most of the be has a snow warning for tommorrow night and your in for a good chance Monday.

[feb1991blizzard]

All to play for i think, the NAE looks good, it will be interesting to see its 12z output, the Met office map suggests quite a pasting for anywhere in a triangle from Manchester to Huddersfield and down to Sheffield, always bare in mind that the Met office have a lot of different models and some are run at times like 9am and the like, not always 0z and 12z, thats why BBC graphics usually change every 3 hours.

[Darren Bown]

The intensity of the ppn itself could be important too. I hate when snow comes in but is so light it melts and therefore makes everywhere damp before the heavier and drier snow moves in, which is what happened here at the beginning of December, we had snow then sleet for most of the day at 125m asl where further east at an altitude of 70m was purely rain.

[Slowpoke]

Monday is definitely a rain/sleet event for me in Blackpool, the cold just isn't given long enough to establish itself.

Any chance of snow on Sunday night?

[feb1991blizzard]

Monday is definitely a rain/sleet event for me in Blackpool, the cold just isn't given long enough to establish itself.

Any chance of snow on Sunday night?

Possible very light dusting but i doubt even that, it does not look good.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Monday is definitely a rain/sleet event for me in Blackpool, the cold just isn't given long enough to establish itself.

Any chance of snow on Sunday night?

hand on heart i thinkany snow for you will be transient,hope im wrong.

[snowdrifter]

For inland areas, it is important to get as cold as possible tonight for the ground to freeze. Then this will help the snow to settle easily tomorrow evening. When you get a good covering of snow, even if it turns to rain for a time, it won't melt much. Cold uppers seem to move back over us by the end of Monday.

Coastal areas should see a brief spell of snow but mainly rain after that.

A slight correction westwards, of the low coming down from the north/northwest is needed for the whole of our region to benefit. Let's hope we get it.

Karyo

Just updated myself with recent posts and saw karyo's earlier quote mentioning coast and snow in the same phrase. Hopefully there indeed might be a westward correction of things, but I really am going to have low expectations whatever even the nearest forecast might show! Won't believe anything until I see incoming pink blobs on the Net-w radar (which i just re-subscribed too) and flakes falling.

In the meantime, here's a song I wrote about snow (yes it really is me!)

Edited January 12, 2013 by snowdrifter

[Darren Bown]

The metro warnings on my iphone app have updated saying that snow will reintensify tomorrow but turning to rain again in places, which I presume is the more western extent of the warnings? Lets's hope there is a westward track of the colder air so we can all benefit

[bridgechad]

i have a bad felling the majority of this region is going to be looking enviously to the east south east come monday,those in saddleworth ie east of the region and esp those with altitude might get a covering,but west of manchester i think is going to be alet down

another person from ashton! im hoping we are going to be in for a right dumping as it starts to climb the hills!

[Slowpoke]

hand on heart i thinkany snow for you will be transient,hope im wrong.

I believe the same to be honest. Even at 40 hours out, there's a chance for upgrades...

I do think we'll see a few flurries tomorrow evening!

[Backtrack]

Just been discussing a westward shift (which would benefit our region) with Arjan (Isolated Frost) on Facebook, I'm not convinced of any major westward shift at such a short time frame, but he informs me of the following:

the tendency in NWP is to adapt the solution mesoscale wise with a LESS progressive bias- pushing the solution west is common

This would mean I have colder uppers and less precip, and you would have similar precip but sub -5c 850s, unlike the sub -3c 850s currently progged

[itsnowjoke]

Its looking rather odd outside at the moment gone very cloudy dark clouds at that is something brewing

[Slowpoke]

Just been discussing a westward shift (which would benefit our region) with Arjan (Isolated Frost) on Facebook, I'm not convinced of any major westward shift at such a short time frame, but he informs me of the following:

the tendency in NWP is to adapt the solution mesoscale wise with a LESS progressive bias- pushing the solution west is common

This would mean I have colder uppers and less precip, and you would have similar precip but sub -5c 850s, unlike the sub -3c 850s currently progged

Only slightly understand that haha

But even NAE shows snow for us Sunday evening... I'm not convinced about Monday

[trickydicky]

Just been up Blake Fell, Cumbria. The wind is brutal!

[pip22]

I see some dark clouds to the north east of me here in Leyland. I doubt the dark clouds will come, it probably peter out about time when the sun goes in or dies to death over the pennines. The clouds is quite bluey-grey in colour.

same as this colour from here. To be honest I wouldnt rule out a snow flurry or two.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[Stephen_Mcr]

NAE looking good

Edited January 12, 2013 by Stephen_Mcr

[R.P. McMurphy]

Heavy snow for Manchester at +48 coastal areas very Marginal.. I think areas like Widnes, Liverpool & Runcorn might struggle, could be a sleet/rain event. More time to change so fingers crossed.

[pip22]

NAE looking good

That is Excellent!