Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Snooz]

can report, yes it's light snow that's making it's way down from Elgin/Huntly (NNW) though it's v.v.light! at least by the time it's reaching here.. It's not very fast I think is the new term courtesy of little Miss Edo - so let's call it snail pace

the earlier depth of 5cm has now reduced to 3cm due to melt, and this what's falling now will not add to it ...

right off to catch up with some real work.. then back later for our gurus' model summaries, if they've made up their minds yet haha! (models not gurus..)

[Hairy Celt]

Epic er sleet showers this morning, at least summat wintry at last! A9 in absolute fkn mayhem this morning due to cretinously-timed roadworks at Longman roundabout.

Looks like a good week of wintriness ahead so had planned a couple of days out; get back and find an email from work - cancel that, work instead please - no, there was no please actually, just 'dae it.'

The weekend ahead looks to have potential tho

[BleakMidwinter]

Where's my Snaw, seems to have sneeked by here. Although I'm not sure I should do dialect being a trousered one among kilties.

*whispers* it;s ok, oneman - there are a few of us here who weren't born in Scotland of Scottish parents! So far as I can see, nobody gives a toss so long as we chose to move here/ stay here, and are happy to be in Scotland! So you're not alone, old chap, what what!*

[Dave3]

*whispers* it;s ok, oneman - there are a few of us here who weren't born in Scotland of Scottish parents! So far as I can see, nobody gives a toss so long as we chose to move here/ stay here, and are happy to be in Scotland! So you're not alone, old chap, what what!*

Quite right! Speaking as a native, if yer daft enough to want to live here, then you are a Scot!

PS keeping this weather elated, I don't trust any of the models with regard to this weekend...

Edited January 14, 2013 by Dave3

[Kerwin]

Looking at the wind charts for later on today, it looks to me as if that big blob of precip that has stalled off the coast of Aberdeen that gave is the snow this morning 'could'

come back our way, can anyone verify?

[martinshaw12003]

I think it may start snowing again soon very overcast now and extremely cold 1 degree when I last checked at 1pm..the good news is the ground has dried out a bit so any snow falling may lie

[LomondSnowstorm]

Bit of a shame the front stalled about 20 miles further east than on last night's run, but at least the Perth-Aberdeen area saw some lying snow out of it.

The NMM paints a very interesting picture though as the front moves back westwards, giving sleet at the coast but for most inland it looks like falling as snow.

Certainly the temperature profile looks a lot more promising than what we've seen of late:

There is the issue of a warm sector further west that may prohibit snowfall and we'll have to keep an eye out for that but it's got potential certainly. Showers still appearing through the day tomorrow on both the NAE and NMM with the upper cold pool breaking -8C by midday on Tuesday on both:

[November13]

*whispers* it;s ok, oneman - there are a few of us here who weren't born in Scotland of Scottish parents! So far as I can see, nobody gives a toss so long as we chose to move here/ stay here, and are happy to be in Scotland! So you're not alone, old chap, what what!*

Correct you dinnae huv tae speak like Sean Connery or Charlie Reid tae be an honoury Scot. In fact you can be born in Scotland and have a Scottish accent but be an Englishman ( Lord Forsyth - Michael Moore) LOL

I think as long as you are positive about Scotland then everyone accepts you. It's like everywhere else.My ancestory is 100% Irish going back 3 generations ago.

Edited January 14, 2013 by November13

[101_North]

Correct you dinnae huv tae speak like Sean Connery or Charlie Reid tae be an honoury Scot. In fact you can be born in Scotland and have a Scottish accent but be an Englishman ( Lord Forsyth - Michael Moore) LOL

I think as long as you are positive about Scotland then everyone accepts you. It's like everywhere else.My ancestory is 100% Irish going back 3 generations ago.

I'm not a Scot either!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think it may start snowing again soon very overcast now and extremely cold 1 degree when I last checked at 1pm..the good news is the ground has dried out a bit so any snow falling may lie

Yep, a huge positive is that dewpoints are now below 0C in many places so what falls is likely to be snow and is likely to lie. The front has stalled just off the coast so we've got maybe another 2 hours before it starts to head back our way I reckon.

Having said that we in Edinburgh seem to have grown our own band of showers. Nothing falling here but clouding over with echoes on the radar just having appeared in the last 20 minutes.

Edited January 14, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Ravelin]

Yep, a huge positive is that dewpoints are now below 0C in many places so what falls is likely to be snow and is likely to lie. The front has stalled just off the coast so we've got maybe another 2 hours before it starts to head back our way I reckon.

Ah, that'll be just about the right time to hit Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire during the 'escape from work' rush hour then.

Oh joy!

Ravelin

P.S. I love snow, I don't mind driving in it either, I just hate everyone else driving in it at the same time as me.

[BleakMidwinter]

Having said that we in Edinburgh seem to have grown our own band of showers. Nothing falling here but clouding over with echoes on the radar just having appeared in the last 20 minutes.

Oh this i s excellent - during termtime we get our very own Edinburgh-specific weather expert

That's less IMBY than it sounds because this little city has its own bugger of a microclimate and it quite often doesn't do as forecasts say it should, because of that (cf "SE Scotland will be hot and sunny" - and Embra sunk in haar). Thanks, LS!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh this i s excellent - during termtime we get our very own Edinburgh-specific weather expert

That's less IMBY than it sounds because this little city has its own bugger of a microclimate and it quite often doesn't do as forecasts say it should, because of that (cf "SE Scotland will be hot and sunny" - and Embra sunk in haar). Thanks, LS!

Yes, I've noticed random shower development around Edinburgh before on the radar, very odd! Looks heavy around the south and southeast of the city and it's clearly gone white over towards the Lammermuirs. Also seems to be evident around Fife, although there it looks to be moving from southwest to northeast rather than northwest to southeast.

[lorenzo]

Satellite run on yrno shows the situation well at present.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

You can clearly see the extent of the cold block as it nudges ever westward and the cold pool cited by LS above does it's best to keep the Atlantic at bay, the fronts grinding to a halt over the North Sea.

Potentially we could have a reversal of that December Disaster i.e the quantum leap from the models back to zonal. In that case the cold block was over modelled and had less strength than actually was in place. This time perhaps a more robust block than being signalled, one that is happily keeping the Atlantic at bay, I think the fact the GFS in full zonal flight firing over a 945-950mb low and it stalling mid-Atlantic is testament to the fact that something more than ordinary is parked over Scandi. Nick has also identifed a removed shortwave which would allow the block to extend N, result being Atlantic in further decline.

Add into the mix a jet that seems to be run by run at the moment ebbing away, like a battery operated fan slowly running out of charge, the scene is set for undercut and snowfest at best case scenario. 2nd best case scenario being toyed around with in FI - which is extreme FI just now - is a huge drop in from the NW and some real 80s retro chart action to go with it.

Today's 12z run will be good drama. Will the UKMO maintain it's easterly promise, will ECM move again to the UKMO solution. Will the GFS get onboard??

[iangec]

Not a flake here 10 miles west of Edinburgh - we seem to be a little shetlered from the Edinburgh microclimate

+4C and blue skies currently

Edited January 14, 2013 by iangec

[101_North]

Nothing falling here in South Edinburgh despite the echos on the radar.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

GFS well on the mild side compared to the morns ECM ensembles

Watching that front off the east coast - looks to be turning back just a little now, notably to the north off Aberdeenshire

Go oan yersel scandi high cauld; push, push, push...

Edited January 14, 2013 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

Nothing falling here in South Edinburgh despite the echos on the radar.

Yes, it doesn't really seem to be materialising as precipitation except I think towards Soutra where the hills still aren't visible.

[karimac]

At work in kirkcaldy, its went baltic no more accuracy than that im afraid! Plus strange cloud cover, seems to be coming from allangles! Who knows...

[dragan]

Had a brief sleety snowy shower, loanhead Midlothian. Very grey, clouds seem to be building from somewhere

May be lake effect showers from the big puddle near my house

Edited January 14, 2013 by dragan

[101_North]

Yes, it doesn't really seem to be materialising as precipitation except I think towards Soutra where the hills still aren't visible.

Certainly appears to be pepping up as it heads down.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Whiteoot at Bathgate

[Ravelin]

Watching that front off the east coast - looks to be turning back just a little now, notably to the north off Aberdeenshire

Go oan yersel scandi high cauld; push, push, push...

Big flakes of snow falling in Dyce now. Probably from the showers that were moving in from the NW rather than the rain/snow band moving West again. What's going to happen to those showers now they are colliding with the stalled rain/snow band though? All going to stall and back up inland, much like the A96 was backed up this morning?

ravelin

[LomondSnowstorm]

Big flakes of snow falling in Dyce now. Probably from the showers that were moving in from the NW rather than the rain/snow band moving West again. What's going to happen to those showers now they are colliding with the stalled rain/snow band though? All going to stall and back up inland, much like the A96 was backed up this morning?

ravelin

Certainly seems to have stalled now. The main band has split, which I think was forecast, as this northern segment will extend and then move southwestwards.

[GraemeB]

First time in a while, Stirling is at 0c dew point and temp falling off.

GFS progging snow for Wed through Sunday, MetO also going with snow, so I've got everything crossed.