Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[spindrift1980]

Pentland Hills webcam looking good!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Certainly seems to have stalled now. The main band has split, which I think was forecast, as this northern segment will extend and then move southwestwards.

Aye, on the fax you can see a wee low develop out of it (curls around) then sweep south overnight?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye, on the fax you can see a wee low develop out of it (curls around) then sweep south overnight?

That's quite a promising looking setup, with the wrap around low heading southwards through the evening. Oddly the NOAA FAX chart has the occlusion as a cold front:

[Northernlights]

More wintry showers to the NE over the Firth but do not seem to be reaching me but they are coming ashore near Elgin I think

.Cold currently 1c and grass crunching up.

Just peeled a pile of potatoes etc for tea so Mrs Northernlights coming home to roast potatoes, roast parsnips,brussel sprouts and meat she prepared earlier. Did I mention young Mr. Northernlights and I were hungry too!!!!

[howham]

Snow back on right at coast in Aberdeen.

[LomondSnowstorm]

NAE is interesting, precipitation intensity could be an issue and we might be relying on convection to aid the snowfall but we're at least in the game for the next 12 hours:

Snowfall potential continuing into tomorrow:

Upper cold pool still looks good:

Even in the slacker flow on Wednesday any flow at all off the North Sea could give some snow showers:

[Dreamnine]

So, is there likely to be any snow in Edinburgh?

Because, atm, it's 5c and sunny - I can't see it happening.

[November13]

Not a flake here 10 miles west of Edinburgh - we seem to be a little shetlered from the Edinburgh microclimate

+4C and blue skies currently

I live in Maddiston 22 miles from Edinburgh Whitecross is 20 miles from Edinburgh just down the hill from me. Eh! have you got shortcut? LOL just being pedantic don't worry!

P.S The snow line started just when you cross the canal yesterday going up to Maddiston. I noticed Whitecross had no snow while we had an inch. All gone now. I blame Grangemouth and the Forth!

[drm]

Snow back on right at coast in Aberdeen.

rosemount part of city starting to cover over again with moderate snow falling hope it stays as snow on the coast thats always a good thing Edited January 14, 2013 by drm

[LomondSnowstorm]

So, is there likely to be any snow in Edinburgh?

Because, atm, it's 5c and sunny - I can't see it happening.

Dewpoints are sitting around 0C with temperatures to the north dropping very rapidly so I think it's entirely possible. The front isn't exactly imminent so we've got a bit of darkness beforehand to play with.

[Dreamnine]

Thanks, LSS, I feel we have missed out a bit so far.

[Buriedundersnow]

how can we trust the GFS when on the 12z run if u flick back and forward from this run to the previous run at 00h and it has changed from the last run how can a model manage to be different from the previous run when it has only been 6hrs since the last run and it is different now on this run at 00h so basically that is saying that in the last run it was wrong from 06h onward.

how can a model not get things right at 06h as 6 hours isnt alot of time to be getting things wrong.

[Maitland]

Nothing at all here in the borders of Perthshire/Stirlingshire. Just had a long walk with the dog (Wallace) with blue sky and lovely winter sunshine. Still hoping for a wee bit of snow to get the kids out sledging but I think that hope may prove fruitless.

M...

[edo]

can report, yes it's light snow that's making it's way down from Elgin/Huntly (NNW) though it's v.v.light! at least by the time it's reaching here.. It's not very fast I think is the new term courtesy of little Miss Edo - so let's call it snail pace

the earlier depth of 5cm has now reduced to 3cm due to melt, and this what's falling now will not add to it ...

right off to catch up with some real work.. then back later for our gurus' model summaries, if they've made up their minds yet haha! (models not gurus..)

snooz it was actually little miss SS who coinred the term its snowing faster and super fast.... little miss edo decided look daddy it is snowing deeper

I am a legend again in her eyes as it was snowing when she got up which I had promised..... just not sure it will have held on enough to sledge on once home from work.... It was at 2pm when i popped home so fingers crossed....

dont expect to see anything reach us tonight unless the flow became stronger and more E than NE but certaily looking good for aberdeenshire and angus potentially

how can we trust the GFS when on the 12z run if u flick back and forward from this run to the previous run at 00h and it has changed from the last run how can a model manage to be different from the previous run when it has only been 6hrs since the last run and it is different now on this run at 00h so basically that is saying that in the last run it was wrong from 06h onward.

how can a model not get things right at 06h as 6 hours isnt alot of time to be getting things wrong.

lol I can feel your frustration.... and how is the random run looking so far?

[November13]

how can we trust the GFS when on the 12z run if u flick back and forward from this run to the previous run at 00h and it has changed from the last run how can a model manage to be different from the previous run when it has only been 6hrs since the last run and it is different now on this run at 00h so basically that is saying that in the last run it was wrong from 06h onward.

how can a model not get things right at 06h as 6 hours isnt alot of time to be getting things wrong.

To be honest the models have been a shambles over the last week. I am going back to looking at the lampost and my own weather station. I am not going to get my hopes up and just see what transpires.

[101_North]

So, is there likely to be any snow in Edinburgh?

Because, atm, it's 5c and sunny - I can't see it happening.

Quite a spread of temps across the Edinburgh area as Gogarbank is 3c and the airport currently 2c.

[Buriedundersnow]

snooz it was actually little miss SS who coinred the term its snowing faster and super fast.... little miss edo decided look daddy it is snowing deeper

I am a legend again in her eyes as it was snowing when she got up which I had promised..... just not sure it will have held on enough to sledge on once home from work.... It was at 2pm when i popped home so fingers crossed....

dont expect to see anything reach us tonight unless the flow became stronger and more E than NE but certaily looking good for aberdeenshire and angus potentially

lol I can feel your frustration.... and how is the random run looking so far?

not good it has us warming up on thursday thats as far as its got so far.

[NorthernRab]

not good it has us warming up on thursday thats as far as its got so far.

Would you say so? Remember to not only focus on 850hPa temps alone.

[Buriedundersnow]

Would you say so? Remember to not only focus on 850hPa temps alone.

lol yeah keep forgetting that

still doesnt look like taking the UKMO or ECM route but i'll wait and see how it turns out

Edited January 14, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[edo]

not good it has us warming up on thursday thats as far as its got so far.

yeah watching it now on meteociel.. only up to t84 though and i thoought the last frame showed things moving slightly further west and a possible slight swing towards the ECM and UKMO for the weekend materialising

[Snooz]

very interesting situ over Aberdeen right now - your timing LSS was bang on for 4pm .

The showers from the NW have now met (and merged?) with the front sitting just off to the east Abdn (it's currently snowing there now).. as to whether it will push back inland is all down to the Scandi... push!.. not sure the band will curl as according to the pressure chart the initial low is now down over NE England and a shortwave[??] is now split off and is sitting over the far NE Scotland (John O'Groats) so there's somewhat of a hourglass with the waist right over Aberdeen, which way will it go LOL!

..might just hold off long enough not to cause Rush hour chaos but sod's law say's naw.. depends on if the Scandi High wants to exert some more pressure soon

at least that's my interpretation it could be completely wrong

Temp 0.7/0.6 DP - lots more snow melt this afternoon, depth now 1-2cm

[101_North]

Dewpoints are sitting around 0C with temperatures to the north dropping very rapidly so I think it's entirely possible. The front isn't exactly imminent so we've got a bit of darkness beforehand to play with.

Where would any snow round here come from because eveything I've looked at this afternoon (and I'm no expert) suggests otherwise.

[Buriedundersnow]

yeah watching it now on meteociel.. only up to t84 though and i thoought the last frame showed things moving slightly further west and a possible slight swing towards the ECM and UKMO for the weekend materialising

yeah and the GFS has something about winding that LP right up in the atlantic

[scottishandy]

Nothing at all here in the borders of Perthshire/Stirlingshire. Just had a long walk with the dog (Wallace) with blue sky and lovely winter sunshine. Still hoping for a wee bit of snow to get the kids out sledging but I think that hope may prove fruitless.

M...

Ten minutes drive to your East Maitland. Frustrating not to have it at house level but could be worse. Hills to the West looking good too.

[edo]

not looking to dissimilar