Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[mikeocarroll]

I'm dismayed by rapid rise in temps, 2.0c here now (a 1c rise since I last posted), dp is -1.8c but I expect that to rise close to freezing once precip arrives, gonna be very marginal for snow to settle.

[TonyH]

Well pretty certain the mild sector is arriving here even ahead of precipitation, currently a cloudy 2c/ dew point -1.5c

Edited January 13, 2013 by TonyH

[Wales123098]

0.5c here and sunny. Temperature did rise to 0.9c but has fallen back a bit in the last half an hour. Weather station warning me of snow in the next 12 hours. Temperature went down to -3.2c last night, hasn't been that low in a few weeks. Ground is frozen which is good.

[J10]

I thought that yesterday they would extend the snow risk for Wales, only for them to do it today !!!

Areas mentioned are the ones most likely to see snow stay for longer, so surprise really.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Funny how Cardiff isn't in the warning but Newport is, I live literally 5 mins from Newport so hopefully a nice covering later for us all. What are the chances on the front stalling over us?

[chubbystuff]

Ok I'm lost doesn't take much admittedly I thought we were off for snow today the charts show rain but met office have my postcode as an amber alert for snow.

[TonyH]

Not even gonna look at next week,were supposed to have snow this week,they are saying snow next week,then by next week it will be rain,finding it really difficult to understand what went wrong. It is freezing outside,I suppose that's better than the mild mush of late

Were we? I certainly did not expect any, nor did the models I looked at, only the potential by this weekend which is what we now have.

Ok I'm lost doesn't take much admittedly I thought we were off for snow today the charts show rain but met office have my postcode as an amber alert for snow.

You are high enough to see a little this afternoon possibly, and again should wintry showers form tomorrow evening.

Edited January 13, 2013 by TonyH

[Snowmadsam]

Countryfile weather in a bit.....(around 10 minutes)

I suggest everyone watches

Should give an idea of uncertainly..

[TonyH]

It's not a case of the models "Don't have a clue" but in these sorts of weather conditions they "Jump around" as they are unsure of what might happen because of the marginality of the set up

I just thought it amazing how close were the two outputs a week apart, that seems lost on you though, never mind!

People in here are often heard to utter 'the models are clueless' and the like are they not?

Edited January 13, 2013 by TonyH

[Sionzzz]

It coming down quite heavy now here in north Wales! Exciting!

[TonyH]

Countryfile weather in a bit.....(around 10 minutes)

I suggest everyone watches

Should give an idea of uncertainly..

You missed it Sam!

From what I recall: snow risk really only Midlands eastwards tonight and tomorrow (bar initial snow for inland Wales), even turning to sleet and rain there in places. Cardigan Bay snow showers highlighted tomorrow evening. Wales generally dry, cold and frosty Wed to Fri, then uncertainty with fronts approaching the west come Friday and the weekend. Battleground possibilities arising as a result (agreeable with my outlook except I went a touch colder!). .

Edited January 13, 2013 by TonyH

[Snowmadsam]

You missed it Sam!

No...it's on now....haha

[mikeocarroll]

I just thought it amazing how close were the two outputs a week apart, that seems lost on you though, never mind!

People in here are often heard to utter 'the models are clueless' and the like are they not?

The trouble is the GFS throws out 4 charts a day, 7 days a week, and so it's got a decent chance of chucking out one that verifies at 7 day range. In the middle of last week the GFS ditched the correct solution and showed several runs with the low pressure going over the top of a sinking block, which hasn't happened (fortunately). I think the point is that it does show in successive runs a range of solutions that can verify (i.e. it isn't 'clueless' as its solutions are plausible), and the one that you show did.

[chubbystuff]

Thanks TonyH , I would be so pleased to see some snow as I thought it was all off for my neck of the woods . I have just checked and i joined this forum 3 years ago yesterday thank you to everyone who has kept me entertained by the will it/ won't it postings

[mikeocarroll]

It coming down quite heavy now here in north Wales! Exciting!

Great to hear! Would it be possible to put your location in your profile so that we know where abouts you are?

[J10]

Weather forecast for week ahead 12:21 - 12:25 ish.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/tv/bbcone/live

Remember of course this is based on Met Office charts which are quite robust in keeping the High Pressure over the UK.

Countryfile proper is on later, and the forecast then towards the weekend may be different,

[TonyH]

The trouble is the GFS throws out 4 charts a day, 7 days a week, and so it's got a decent chance of chucking out one that verifies at 7 day range. In the middle of last week the GFS ditched the correct solution and showed several runs with the low pressure going over the top of a sinking block, which hasn't happened (fortunately). I think the point is that it does show in successive runs a range of solutions that can verify (i.e. it isn't 'clueless' as its solutions are plausible), and the one that you show did.

Well for one that was 'chucked out' it was eerily exact! Points taken on board however.

[J10]

With regard to GFS, it picked out the initial SSW very well indeed, far more consistent than ECM, and indeed the forecast of the effects it led the way, the forecast shown by Tony for 7 days out was excellent

GFS also has the habit of picking a trend first, getting it right and then ditching it, only to come back around later.

However, it like all models have fluctuated a lot over the past week, understandably given the unusual synoptics, it is very tricky to pick out a winner

if the block turns out to win they I would say UKMO/GEM have got this better modelled (they have been the ones most bullish about keeping the block)

While if the Atlantic comes back in, then I would say ECM/GFS have been closer to the mark.

But we can't really call it until this weeks weather has actually occurred.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Jackone

[Jayfromcardiff]

BBC just showed snow over Cardiff from 7pm till around 12am, could see a few inches maybe! Nice little upgrade and a nice birthday present

[Liam Ellis]

Yeah I'm Deiniolen, therefore a bit high! Still snowing here with a slight dusting. Flakes a bigger now than earlier!

[gareth moo]

A little dusting remaining above 250m on Mynydd Machen at 9am this morning. Fingers crossed for the snowline to drop another 150m over the next 48hrs. I skied from the top, literally to my front door in Dec 2010. Don't think we'll get those depths again but would settle for a few cm down into the valley out of this.

[andymusic]

BBC just showed snow over Cardiff from 7pm till around 12am, could see a few inches maybe! Nice little upgrade and a nice birthday present

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JAY FROM ALL AT THE WELSH NET WEATHER FORUM AND THE STAFF AND ME AT WALES-WEATHER.WEBS.COM - HAVE A GOOD UN

A little dusting remaining above 250m on Mynydd Machen at 9am this morning. Fingers crossed for the snowline to drop another 150m over the next 48hrs. I skied from the top, literally to my front door in Dec 2010. Don't think we'll get those depths again but would settle for a few cm down into the valley out of this.

Y

YES WE WILL IT'LL BE HERE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK MATE! lol

Edited January 13, 2013 by andymusic

[Marcus_surfer]

Temps up to 4c now, too warm for snow !

[Wales123098]

Temp rising fast now 2.1c. Starting to cloud over.

Netweather Extra radar has precip near.

[alijoe]

BBC just showed snow over Cardiff from 7pm till around 12am, could see a few inches maybe! Nice little upgrade and a nice birthday present

Happy birthday Jay, have a cracking one