Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[keithlucky]

It still is looking very rosy, today's models have been far more positive than last nights. Good Chances tomorrow as well, as per my previous summaries.

Nice to see my first snowflake of the season ,good sign that such light precipitation could give snow.

[mikeocarroll]

Hi all,

I have a Davis Weather Station situated in Port Talbot. It's pretty much at sea level. May be a decent baseline for you all.

It's here,

http://homepage.ntlw...ernow/index.htm

Thanks for sharing!

[longtimedead]

Penfoel . I'm, just along the road at Cardigan ,I have had some experience with lambs and foals and know that cold rain and mud can be as big a killer as snow ,my advise would be to try to get them in as what ever we get isnt going to nice and this cold spell looks set to last at least this week with some really low nightime temps .I took my dogs down the beach this afternoon and the wind had really picked up and was biting cold and thats with the car temp saying +5 and its going to be a lot colder than that at times .

Good luck

Paul

[CRACKPOT]

It still is looking very rosy, today's models have been far more positive than last nights. Good Chances tomorrow as well, as per my previous summaries.

Hi Jackone,

Everywhere I look keeps stating Wales are not going to get anything! I was confident earlier today but even the MetO are showing nothing and the Beeb forecasts showing nothing. Is there still uncertainty in what/where the snow is going to fall - even this close?

I am pretty optimistic as a rule but seems the negativity is getting to me and I am developing snow(cabin) fever!

JK

[mikeocarroll]

Hi Jackone,

Everywhere I look keeps stating Wales are not going to get anything! I was confident earlier today but even the MetO are showing nothing and the Beeb forecasts showing nothing. Is there still uncertainty in what/where the snow is going to fall - even this close?

I am pretty optimistic as a rule but seems the negativity is getting to me and I am developing snow(cabin) fever!

JK

Not sure the BBC forecast on their website suggests snow both tomorrow eve from the first band and Monday from the second band, according to the graphics, at least for east and south east wales. Check out the graphic at about 1min 40s on the video - just the main forecast video on bbc.co.uk/weather.

[Marcus_surfer]

Sure is anyone's guess at the moment...anything could happen, sleet stopped here

[bradymk]

Latest GFS continuing to highlight monday night into tuesday's potential with colder uppers digging in slightly quicker this run. One of many snow options on the table

[TonyH]

Sooo, my heavily in lamb ewes are still out, plenty of hay and some good hedged shelter. Do I risk leaving them out, or try to get them loaded and home (bearing in mind I can't yet get truck and trailer into/out of the field as it's so wet and muddy). Guys your input is invaluble to me here in Brynhoffnant. Many thanks for your helpful advice !

Same as I said a couple of days ago - being close to the coast you most likely will avoid snow Sunday evening into Monday, but it will be cold enough for snow showers pm Monday should these develop which is not certain, but the wind direction is favourable. If we catch a streamer even Brynhoffnant could see a couple of inches by Tuesday morning, IF this happens.

[TonyH]

I think far too much is being made of the mild sector, the fact is it is smaller on the NAE 12Hz than the 06Hz run

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a bit of snow anywhere tomorrow at least of front edge. If we can get snow tonight, which has started to settle on car roof, at least until it stops. The chances are far better in more conducive conditions over the next few days.

Edit snow has now stopped, and thawed quickly, but at least have been outside when snow falling this winter. Hopefully the first of many (and better) events over coming days.

It's hardly a true mild sector, -3c uppers at highest, could stick as now above 200m or so, especially further east, such as the Valleys. Low dew points favoring the snow flurries this evening, and was always forecast

Edited January 12, 2013 by TonyH

[J10]

It's hardly a true mild sector, -3c uppers at highest, could stick as now above 200m or so, especially further east, such as the Valleys. Low dew points favoring the snow flurries this evening, and was always forecast

Re mild sector that was the point I am making, other people were over ramping it not me.

As for tonight, most of the talk in recent days has been downplaying the threat of snow, after it seemed more likely a few days back, partly due to high uppers and lack of any meaningful precipitation, perhaps I am getting over cautious.

[J10]

NAE brings in some precipitation tomorrow night, a bit later than the 06Hz run, still decent chance of snow for a time. However precipitation amounts even less than the 06Hz run. Monday more marginal than before though.

Of more interest to me is NW flow later on Monday, not ideal setup, but I'd take that if offered.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[Marcus_surfer]

NAE brings in some precipitation tomorrow night, a bit later than the 06Hz run, still decent chance of snow for a time. However precipitation amounts even less than the 06Hz run. Monday more marginal than before though.

Of more interest to me is NW flow later on Monday, not ideal setup, but I'd take that if offered.

A Nw flow looks good, not sure why the BBC forecast temperatures up to 8C after the PPN pushes through the SW surely it won't be that mild and after the second band on Monday, so are we likely to see scattered sleet and snow showers in that Nw flow or will upper temps/dew points be too high?

[Elnonio]

Hi everyone. Nice to be back!

I like these charts!!!

xxxxx

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

NAE 18z more or less the same with light precipitation Sunday evening/night with sleet/snow on its leading edge.

We then see the Occluded front push in from the NW:

http://expert-images...011412_1218.gif < Heavy Precipitation @ 42hrs

http://expert-images...011412_1218.gif < Upper 850 temps around -5C

http://expert-images...011412_1218.gif < Dew Points for the same time just above freezing over most of Wales at or below in east Wales.

528 DAM air present over Wales apart from the far SW- Granted it does start pushing SW again to cover all of Wales as colder air works in back around the low pressure - Which in itself will present the threat of snow showers for NW/W parts of Wales.

http://expert-images...011418_1218.gif < Surface pressure @ 48hrs

Very difficult to call in terms of Snow distribution, we'll have to keep an eye on it but it looks very close to me and if heavy precipitation is over us i wouldn't be surprised at all to see back edge snow on Monday. Quite a few wintry opportunities over the next few days as others mentioned earlier.

[TonyH]

A Nw flow looks good, not sure why the BBC forecast temperatures up to 8C after the PPN pushes through the SW surely it won't be that mild and after the second band on Monday, so are we likely to see scattered sleet and snow showers in that Nw flow or will upper temps/dew points be too high?

It has been stated many times, best ignore those BBC graphics if that's what your referring to? 8c maxima impossible with -6c uppers (GFS), 4c at best on the coast.

Edited January 12, 2013 by TonyH

[J10]

A Nw flow looks good, not sure why the BBC forecast temperatures up to 8C after the PPN pushes through the SW surely it won't be that mild and after the second band on Monday, so are we likely to see scattered sleet and snow showers in that Nw flow or will upper temps/dew points be too high?

Met Office forecasts 6c for here as Max on Monday. by evening, upper temps are -6c, with DP just below freezing, thicknesses are sub 528 the fetch is not that long, but the wind direction looks very good.

Daytime - May be a few showers, possibly wintry .

Overnight - Looks good for wintry plus showers, with sleet and snow, this is not the perfect setup, but after no events like this in over 2 years I would take it.

NAE 18z more or less the same with light precipitation Sunday evening/night with sleet/snow on its leading edge.

We then see the Occluded front push in from the NW:

http://expert-images...011412_1218.gif < Heavy Precipitation @ 42hrs

http://expert-images...011412_1218.gif < Upper 850 temps around -5C

http://expert-images...011412_1218.gif < Dew Points for the same time just above freezing over most of Wales at or below in east Wales.

528 DAM air present over Wales apart from the far SW- Granted it does start pushing SW again to cover all of Wales as colder air works in back around the low pressure - Which in itself will present the threat of snow showers for NW/W parts of Wales.

http://expert-images...011418_1218.gif < Surface pressure @ 48hrs

Very difficult to call in terms of Snow distribution, we'll have to keep an eye on it but it looks very close to me and if heavy precipitation is over us i wouldn't be surprised at all to see back edge snow on Monday. Quite a few wintry opportunities over the next few days as others mentioned earlier.

Hope we all get something, cheers for these summaries, just wished at times the charts were that little bit better.

-------------------------------------------------

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[J10]

Late Update on Met Office Website for Next Week for Severe Weather Across the UK

published after latest NAE run, unusually late update, so they must think it is serious.

This week there is set a be a very cold Easterly wind across much of the UK, and at times there may be some conditions not seen over the UK for a long period of time. There may be some rain, sleet or snow, with longer period of snow over Eastern parts of England and Scotland.

However after this things may settle down with severe frosts and biting cold Easterly winds. However this is when the Severe Weather is likely to bite the hardest. A strange yellow spherical object may appear late in the week in the Sky, however this is normal and people should not be afraid of it, However small children not used to this phenomena may need a little assistance getting used to it.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[TonyH]

GFS from last Sunday almost spot on for this Sunday!

Last Sunday output:

And actual:

For those who say the models 'have not got a clue'

Edited January 12, 2013 by TonyH

[J10]

GFS from last Sunday almost spot on for this Sunday!

Last Sunday output:

And actual:

For those who say the models 'have not got a clue'

Good Shout there.

[Panayiotis]

Short ensembles for my area still shows a 95% chance of snow, tomorrow, so down 5% from the 12z which isnt that bad!

[Snowmadsam]

Late Update on Met Office Website for Next Week for Severe Weather Across the UK

published after latest NAE run, unusually late update, so they must think it is serious.

This week there is set a be a very cold Easterly wind across much of the UK, and at times there may be some conditions not seen over the UK for a long period of time. There may be some rain, sleet or snow, with longer period of snow over Eastern parts of England and Scotland.

However after this things may settle down with severe frosts and biting cold Easterly winds. However this is when the Severe Weather is likely to bite the hardest. A strange yellow spherical object may appear late in the week in the Sky, however this is normal and people should not be afraid of it, However small children not used to this phenomena may need a little assistance getting used to it.

Sounds spooky...

[worldairgroup]

sorry guys we had a power outage approximately 10pm last night and only just before 6am was power restored, hence the reason for no condition updates from me. anyone else suffered this power thing/anything to do with the weather?

[andymusic]

GFS from last Sunday almost spot on for this Sunday!

Last Sunday output:

And actual:

For those who say the models 'have not got a clue'

It's not a case of the models "Don't have a clue" but in these sorts of weather conditions they "Jump around" as they are unsure of what might happen because of the marginality of the set up

Anyway - models now showing cold/snow - and major amounts of snow for us in Wales - come the end of this week - Friday/Saturday/Sunday - FEET OF SNOW - temps bomb down to -6 or -7 or below before an attempt by the atlantic to move fronts in - as it tries to move against the cold air it'll stall and dump all it's whitey goodness all over Wales - loads of the stuff - so much so we are going to be crippled - this is my prediction - save this post if you like - lets see if I've got it right - but FEET OF SNOW is what we are gonna have - it's gonna be quite BIBLICAL! LOL

NO sign of any let up after that either - right up until the end of this month - and into February too - so I'm glad I bought my snow shovel now! LOL

sorry guys we had a power outage approximately 10pm last night and only just before 6am was power restored, hence the reason for no condition updates from me. anyone else suffered this power thing/anything to do with the weather?

No problems here boyo!

Edited January 13, 2013 by andymusic

[Frozone]

Dry, frosty and -2c here.

[CRACKPOT]

Simon Keeling (Weatherschool) now tweeting Eastward shift on the charts now means Monday's event mostly rain in the west.... did not stipulate how far west etc.

http://www.weatherweb.net/tvweather/hirlamukpr42.gif

JK