Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[andymusic]

Looking across at senghenydd mountain - starting to dissappear with Snow I think - here we go winter has finally arrived in Pontypridd after having all these Noah's Ark type floods - AMAZING - and the next 4 - 5 weeks will see further nasty bouts of snow - blizzards and general ice and cold nastiness - until we all think we moved up to the artic and turned into lickle eskimos - AMAZING - so my predictions are coming true considering I was warning about this - oooooooooooooooooooooooooooh about 1 and a half to two weeks ago - I must have a crystal ball or something - maybe I could take over Derek's job or even Carol Kirkward's - Think I'd look nice in a skirt LOL

EDIT HERE COMES THE SNOW AGAIN - FALLING INTO MY BACKYARD - WELL FOOTBALL PITCH OF A BACKYARD - HERE WE GO FOLKS - SNOWING IN PONTYPRIDD - IT'S OFFICIAL YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT 2 - I'LL BE BACK ONCE THE SNOW GETS UP TO THE WINDOW SILL - BYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Edited January 12, 2013 by andymusic

[worldairgroup]

It's SNOWtime Andy, you the same? :L

sleety snow here daniel, andy will defo have it know where he lives LOL

[soupsurfer7]

Back in Cardiff now. Just a few sleety flakes here this afternoon.

[Panayiotis]

Temp down to 3C from 5C with heavier rain/sleet here in Cardiff!

[Wales123098]

1.0c snow.

[FROZENFOOT]

just started to snow here 4 miles from hay on wye 2 miles from glasbury on wye. large flakes turning to rain , 38 minutes from when mike o carroll posted it in llandrindod wells . .

[Bonjangle]

Just typical snizzle here , feels cold outside though .

Great to see reports of snow falling though as it looking good for Wales .

(Cwmbran east wales )

[Wales123098]

The sudden temp decline has halted at 1.0c. If only it went a bit lower:P Gonna be icy out there tonight thats for sure.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Had just written a whole post but closed the window by mistake

Yes the NAE 12z does weaken the precipitation signal, but an initial period of sleet/snow looks likely away from far W/SW coasts.

The lack of precipitation is one of the problems, i also believe another is the surface flow ahead of the front from the SW, mainly impacting the S/SW of our area causing an increase of dew points/temperatures.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Met Office warnings pulled westward into Wales for snow, but we will need to see how further runs handle precipitation amounts, timing of the frontal system, etc.

[keithlucky]

More sleet /snow pushing north out of Devon now could give a dusting over some parts of S East Wales.

[bradymk]

Afternoon, latest NAE suggests much weaker precip but colder so its a mixture, doesn't have much support from GFS or UKMO regarding weaker precip but it is a higher res model so must be noted. Monday night looks interesting to me as well and GFS 12z is a stunner, prolonging the cold with trough disruption and this would certainly give us some snowy days in Wales.

[keithlucky]

I find it amazing how people think that you can say i have 2cm by Tuesday night or 5cms by Wednesday how the hell can tell precipitation amounts 2 days in advance.

Edited January 12, 2013 by keithlucky

[Panayiotis]

Temp down to 0.5C here in Cardiff, light rain starting to get dark now, so an expected temp drop should happen hopefully allowing it snow!

[Daniel Miller]

A message to all: Holy Sh*tballs. Dat GFS

[Gorky101]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-168.png?12

A message to all: Holy Sh*tballs. Dat GFS

would that not be rain/sleet mix though??

[Daniel Miller]

would that not be rain/sleet mix though??

As it stands, it's waaaaayyyy out in FI and is most likely never going to be that intense when/if it hits so if a more watered down version did make it, I would expect it to fall as snow, especially with the upper temps that we have. For that chart, we are under -8

Just taken from the model thread, for the next day: http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=153061

Edited January 12, 2013 by Daniel Miller

[FROZENFOOT]

turned to rain here now , very grey every where.

nr hay on wye

[Marcus_surfer]

A message to all: Holy Sh*tballs. Dat GFS

That would bring heavy snow showers, but it's a long way off !!!

[Bafan]

Snowing fairly heavily here - biggish flakes and sticking on car, grass etc (Tredegar 330m) :-D

[swales]

Snowing fairly heavily here - biggish flakes and sticking on car, grass etc (Tredegar 330m) :-D

Traffic Wales Tredegar cam looks pretty white, enjoy!

[welshgritter]

Back in paradise now.....Neath that is! Nope absolutely no snow. BUT it is extremely cold and extremely windy!

[Frozone]

Traffic Wales Tredegar cam looks pretty white, enjoy!

Must be a lot colder up there then, was a barmy 8c in Swansea earlier.

[J10]

Had just written a whole post but closed the window by mistake

Yes the NAE 12z does weaken the precipitation signal, but an initial period of sleet/snow looks likely away from far W/SW coasts.

The lack of precipitation is one of the problems, i also believe another is the surface flow ahead of the front from the SW, mainly impacting the S/SW of our area causing an increase of dew points/temperatures.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Met Office warnings pulled westward into Wales for snow, but we will need to see how further runs handle precipitation amounts, timing of the frontal system, etc.

Dewpoints, Temperatures and Thicknesses are lower on this 12Hz run NAE run compared to the 06Hz run. Generally by around 1c. As a result the Rain Snow line is further SW

However in contrast, the GFS and NMM massively increases the warm sector, and precipitation shortage not really an issue.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[welshgritter]

Gone really Dark out guys!!! Big dark cloud!

[Panayiotis]

If you are not following the model thread, i will post this here for you guys and gals.

These are the short ensembles for my area (Cardiff) im happy with 100% chance for snowfall lol!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Panayiotis