South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[snowbob]

Sleet here too in addington

Nice start to the day

Any showers later or tonight will defo be snow

Edited January 12, 2013 by snowbob

[Laurence Hill]

Am waiting for Steve Murr to wake up and give us a proper update.

Far too many unqualified comments to contend with, although I am sure they are well intended.

[snowbob]

Am waiting for Steve Murr to wake up and give us a proper update.

Far too many unqualified comments to contend with, although I am sure they are well intended.

yeah same here or teits

ECM a bit of a worry

Hope it's just a wobble

[Tom Jarvis]

Just rain here in East Sussex nutley

Edited January 12, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[angel23]

Snowing here in Luton now

[pinball wizard]

Snowing here in Luton now

How hard?

[Dan the Man]

How hard?

Light sleet

[angel23]

Not hard just light at the mo! But it's snow! So I'm heading on the right direction! Lol

Light sleet

U up near airport dan? It's snow down here in limbury ways

[Buzzard]

Same sleety stuff here inLeighton Buzzard but now stopped. My mates are doing Chiltern league cross country virtually at the end of Luton airport. Going to be a tad brisk ;-)

[Bogman]

Snowing slightly near Stevenage. A bonus as didn't think it would get this far north

[Southender]

Haha gotta love the model drama.

GFS and UKMO nice. ECM not great.

ECM looks like it is overpowering the jet and the PV personally. But we stay cold till later next week even on that run. I would expect the op run to sit on the milder side of its ensembles post 120hrs.

Its just 1 run. And the GFS and UKMO look fine. No need to panic.

Enjoy the snow that comes over the next 5 days!

[snowy weather]

Morning all rise and shine. Iv been glued to my screen for so long i think im going crazy . has anything changed since last night?

[abruzzi spur]

Hope TEITS doesn't mind me copying and pasting this from the MOD, it just seems a balanced opinion from him (thanks):

"So the model chaos continues this morning.

Every morning when I view the models its always in the order of UKMO, ECM, GFS. Now after viewing the UKMO/ECM my initial thought was the ECM is more likely after viewing the 18Z GFS. However I then view the 0Z GFS and its completely different. When it comes to potential in the medium range the UKMO is clearly the best followed by the GFS/GEM. The strange thing about the model output is normally when it comes to an E,ly the UKMO is always less keen and yet remains firm from last nights 12Z.

The difference between the models isn't surprising though. The GEFS ensembles have also shown a similar split during yesterday (haven't looked at 0Z yet) as we had around 50% supporting the ECM and the other 50% being similar to GEM/UKMO. So really members should view the output at the moment with the attitude of a 50% chance the ECM right and 50% UKMO is right."

[shotski]

I'm going with the MOGREPS which according to Ian F will keep us below average until early Feb !

Hi Great Plum

Could you post the link to his comments please , Thanks

[abruzzi spur]

However....

Matt Hugo on Twitter has posted that the 00z ECM has support:

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

00z EC ENS not playing ball either and support the ECM model with milder Atlantic air moving in by Fri/Sat of next week.

Even if this right, though, we have a week of cold with snow risk, so let's not get too downhearted!

AS

[Mike Storm]

Morning all temps still to high here first band went through as rain.... am watching the next one with interest!

[jimbo36]

I wouldn't worry about models beyond T72, too much chopping and changing for anything remotely reliable as Stuart explained yesterday below. Current strat warming quite exceptional rise in a short space of time.

Models exhibiting shocking inter-run and intra run continuity, and that's just the ensemble means !

The only constants that stand out here when assessing the next 10-14 days:

- troughing signal for Europe;

- below average signal for Europe;

- general signal for +ve height anomalies to our north and NE.

Beyond that, don't bother attempting to place any value in model solutions, of any type. A good time to be able to put non-NWP assessment alongside the myriad of options here. With angular momentum increasing off the back of tropical convective waves in the Pacific, we should see the above general synoptic as the benchmark.

The real developing story for me being the impending collapse of the polar vortex. We should be looking around day 9/10 for a complete cleaving in half across the Arctic with tropospheric response a few days later. A few GFS ensembles showing this.

Still looking very likely that the second phase of cold will come out of the NE.

Strong ensemble mean and teleconnective support for a deep trough to take up residence over Europe in the meantime, and also signal for low pressure in the Atlantic. ECM op not for me.

Edited January 12, 2013 by jimbo36

[EML Network]

Well, the closer Monday gets, the more it's looking likely that us along the South Coast are going to get an all rain event today, and Monday in particular, it's always the same story along the S.Coast, 5 miles inland will get buried ...we'll just get plain old boring rain :-(

Hope I am wrong, but pretty sure I'll be right ...we just never get anything from North Westerly's ....bloody English Channel !!

[Coast]

Good morning all!!

Just opened up my e-mails and had one from my very good friend with a photo that has really annoyed him:

It was taken out of his bedroom window yesterday, just outside Orlando, Florida he moved there 10 years ago to get away from the cold!!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Woke up to a touch of frost here and I've just got back from a walk during which I think it's fair to describe we had a 'wintry' mix of sleet and at times wet snow, so must have been the same as you lot from Leighton Buzzard and Luton had, certainly cold enough at 1.8 °C for my face to feel like it's been on the shady side of an iceberg !

Time for a nice mug of hot coffee I think

Edited January 12, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Planet Stow]

What is the forecast for London Today, Tomorrow and Sunday?

[Snowman31]

so is this front on sun/mon going to be rain or snow?

[leemondo]

I think anyone worring about what the ecm is showing should remember what the gfs was showing 2days ago and what its showing now, i think its just a wobble as things higher up are causing chaos on the ground :-)

[Coast]

so is this front on sun/mon going to be rain or snow?

Watch the radar on Monday and see!!! All the models in the World aren't going to tell you that detail now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning peeps! Look at the NW extra radar..Look how close the cold air is ! Snow in Wales and that will slowly move down