South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Jan_Bromley]

He should have been more careful!

Mrs Plum was stuck on top of Reigate hill just past lower kingswood for about 5 hours... I would have gone up there but I had a sleeping toddler. She had nearly ran out of petrol and had no food!

Actually it's a reminder that despite being very scenic, snow causes chaos and worry

[Dexter29]

GFS very disappointing with the latest run. A few days ago, today seemed hopeful for snow. Then it was Monday night, now thats getting away from us again. That is two runs where things have been downgraded. I don't want to sound downbeat, but i'm not particularly hopeful now.

There's still time for things to upgrade again, but this always seems to happen.

Hi, i am unable to access the charts at the moment.

In what way has the 18z downgraded?

[Jo S]

Croydon Council will send out gritting teams in a few hours time, but it is difficult when raining due to grit being washed away. It's still game on for heavy snow from Monday

Yay,thankyou,fingers,toes,everything crossed

[scotteboi]

ok, there are lots of "will it snow here?" or "its showing rain" posts, regarding monday. as it stands now, we are looking at possibly 3 scenarios.

1) from about midnight sunday, it will snow pretty much everywhere in our region.

through the middle part of the day, it turns to rain or sleet as the "warm sector" moves through, then back to snow by late afternoon or evening.

2) as above but with sleet/ wet snow to the south west of the region for a time, the "warm sector" being mixed out and having less effect.

3) the "warm sector" takes a more southerly track as the front occludes more quickly, thereby missing us completely resulting in all snow

in conclusion, it will snow everywhere but how long for and exact amounts are yet to be decided. keep watching the forecasts, the radars and the lamp-posts. everyone will see some snow and with a bit of luck, scenario 3 will be the result.

Love the picture!!!

[Jan_Bromley]

GFS very disappointing with the latest run. A few days ago, today seemed hopeful for snow. Then it was Monday night, now thats getting away from us again. That is two runs where things have been downgraded. I don't want to sound downbeat, but i'm not particularly hopeful now.

There's still time for things to upgrade again, but this always seems to happen.

I disagree Chris. GFS looks very snowy from midnight sunday through to the early hours of Tues morning

[shotski]

GFS very disappointing with the latest run. A few days ago, today seemed hopeful for snow. Then it was Monday night, now thats getting away from us again. That is two runs where things have been downgraded. I don't want to sound downbeat, but i'm not particularly hopeful now.

There's still time for things to upgrade again, but this always seems to happen.

Sorry, but what are you talking about ?

I must be looking at a different set of charts.

[PureOcean]

GFS very disappointing with the latest run. A few days ago, today seemed hopeful for snow. Then it was Monday night, now thats getting away from us again. That is two runs where things have been downgraded. I don't want to sound downbeat, but i'm not particularly hopeful now.

There's still time for things to upgrade again, but this always seems to happen.

Don't be down beat, we are an island and as such our weather is so changeable like this, that is what the attraction and fun is. The reality is we are dealing in this case with so many factors including a warmer sea than normal which effects things too, so be patient, and things will happen. I do agree though it does always seem to happen a big build up then "puff!" but that is only if you follow tv forecasts etc... when they are too far out. The data tomorrow will give us much better idea.

[TheBigFreeze]

GFS 18z has snow over the majority of Norfolk for most of Tuesday as well

[Chris_19]

Hi, i am unable to access the charts at the moment.

In what way has the 18z downgraded?

The low has moved further east, therefore the warm sector has shifted further east.

Plus the PPN passes through much quicker.

I've only looked at the latest GFS run. Fingers crossed it all changes again.

[TheBigFreeze]

I disagree Chris. GFS looks very snowy from midnight sunday through to the early hours of Tues morning

Sorry, but what are you talking about ?

I must be looking at a different set of charts.

with this forum section covering such a large area I think it depends where you live to how good / bad this run is

[Reefseeker]

Well my area looking v, good for precip, in the form of snow,(12 miles north west of london)...happy days.

Hope so, want my son's school in Hillingdon closed and also the uni where I work. Nothing worse than snow down here in Kingston and trying to convince work and school in Uxbridge that really we can't get there!

[Chris_19]

Sorry, but what are you talking about ?

I must be looking at a different set of charts.

Sorry, my post was a biased opinion for much of Kent! Fingers crossed for the rest of the South East though.

[Jan_Bromley]

Latest GFS potential snowfall up to 54hrs

Sorry, my post was a biased opinion for much of Kent! Fingers crossed for the rest of the South East though.

Kent will do well

[Great Plum]

Hi folks, kilted visitor with a question if I may?

My good lady wife is due to fly to Gatwick then train to Polegate on Tuesday then return on Friday for her Grandad's funeral in Hailsham on Thursday. What are your thoughts on transport disruption for this period?

Flying to/from Edinburgh but can't see any major issues this end.

Cheers,

Andy.

Hi Andy, Tuesday could be tricky... Overnight we could be getting 10cm or so... Having said that, Gatwick is probably the best London airport to cope with snow... The railways will probably have delays though!

[Chris_19]

Latest GFS potential snowfall up to 54hrs

Kent will do well

I hope so, but the warm sector seems to have made a further movement to the East, so that isn't a good thing.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Chris_19

[ukpaul]

NAE for Monday midnight to 6am, PPN is now further south and west but is fading earlier for Yorkshire and the north.

EDIT: Comparing with the 12z it looks as though they are bringing in the next system much earlier, it's already hitting the Scottish westcoast and wasn't earlier.

Edited January 12, 2013 by ukpaul

[Lampostwatcher]

Harrow council gritters are out seen a few this evening

[Met4Cast]

Kent will do well

I wouldn't bet on it.

The 18z keeps the marginal conditions over us until the back end of the front now, the front moves through MUCH faster too. 1-5cm for lucky spots, massive downgrade, it seems the NMM might have actually been on the mark should these runs continue through into tomorrow..

[stromanis]

Light snow in Norwich now.

[Great Plum]

Actually it's a reminder that despite being very scenic, snow causes chaos and worry

Yes, that's very true. I always try and minimise the chaos that it can cause us... Luckily, I work in Reigate, my wife's job is now in redhill and as luck would have it, I'm off Thursday for toboggan practice (oh, and to look after the kids as well!)

[Essex Chelle]

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteox.co.uk%2F&ei=s9HxUMm2PNGR0QWi8oGQBA&usg=AFQjCNHOMyxwbcfXF5-IvNtWwg4gz9W9-w its on its way and looks impressive

Hee Hee I clicked on 3-7 day and chelle loves the way the orange swirls and stalls all over the top of us

[Chris_19]

I wouldn't bet on it.

The 18z keeps the marginal conditions over us until the back end of the front now, the front moves through MUCH faster too. 1-5cm for lucky spots, massive downgrade, it seems the NMM might have actually been on the mark should these runs continue through into tomorrow..

I agree.

[Southender]

GFS high res ppn charts are shocking. The mild sector has grown and puts most of us in a wintry mix category.

[Jan_Bromley]

I wouldn't bet on it.

The 18z keeps the marginal conditions over us until the back end of the front now, the front moves through MUCH faster too. 1-5cm for lucky spots, massive downgrade, it seems the NMM might have actually been on the mark should these runs continue through into tomorrow..

Thanks Dan, bloody typical. No stalling of that front then?

[essexweather]

GFS high res ppn charts are shocking. The mild sector has grown and puts most of us in a wintry mix category.

Would need to be over 250m for snow on this run. Time for change (I hope)!