London & South East Regional Discussion 14/01/13 18z ----->

[john pike]

lol swear filter

hi marie

still is

think i shall look for some ramp charts

[Met4Cast]

Not quite.

Ashford:

Temp 2.4

DP 2.3

Ouch!

[abovefreezing]

Wow have you guys got the heating right up?!

Actually it wont come on with the thermostat - its too warm

Dp IS falling, but not at a fast enough rate. After all, its half past eleven.

Hopefully licker won't come ti at least 3, with the north-easterlies.

Might drop a bit by then...

Edited January 14, 2013 by abovefreezing

[manutdmatt1986]

Temp: 2.3c

DP: 1.3c

I must be one of the warmest places in the region!

Oh fudge!

[Col Berkshire]

Great! Can you stop moaning now, please...

How am I moaning by voicing an opinion on how things currently look? Ok, I'll stop moaning if that's the case. Some people!

[Paul Sherman]

They are amazing temp and dewpoints, possibly downwind from the estuary in a NNW Wind ?? How far over into Kent are you guys and does the Estuary open up, we have these problems here when a ESE Is ongoing, it warms the dewpoints up like mad!

Dewpoint here with a stiff Northerly is -0.2c

[SMU]

Bloody typical had snow melting earlier and now I'm at work in Lewisham overnight will there be any do you reckon this far in London?

I need a few more frames on the radar- but its looking slightly east on forecast-- need to wait to see the next 45 mins...

S

[alexisj9]

Yes, this indicates freezing rain

lol great so instead of snow I get an ice rink, could be interesting if it happens though, I don't think I've seen freezing rain before.

[Great Plum]

Reigate Grammar School reporting 0.1c dewpoint http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ISURREYR6

Thank you... - bookmarked!

[Sussex Jules]

They are amazing temp and dewpoints, possibly downwind from the estuary in a NNW Wind ?? How far over into Kent are you guys and does the Estuary open up, we have these problems here when a ESE Is ongoing, it warms the dewpoints up like mad!

Dewpoint here with a stiff Northerly is -0.2c

I'm about 10 miles or so inland from Eastbourne just down the road from Coast

[abovefreezing]

They are amazing temp and dewpoints, possibly downwind from the estuary in a NNW Wind ?? How far over into Kent are you guys and does the Estuary open up, we have these problems here when a ESE Is ongoing, it warms the dewpoints up like mad!

Dewpoint here with a stiff Northerly is -0.2c

Ashford is right in the middle of kent, really, estuary has to be at least 30 miles north, I guess. London is to the north west and is abt 60-70 miles away as the rook flies

[Downpour]

Thank you... - bookmarked!

No problem!

[Paul Sherman]

Nooooooo

The feeder band is fragmenting on the 2320 radar!

Watch the shrinkage over the last hour in the North Sea!

If it detaches I fear for its survival as it comes south!

[Col Berkshire]

lol great so instead of snow I get an ice rink, could be interesting if it happens though, I don't think I've seen freezing rain before.

I'm not sure the conditions are right for freezing rain, more likely to be snow by then if it makes it that far west.

[WillinGlossop]

Heavy snow in colchester now and laying.....

[Rinse The Raindrops]

It's reached Braintree coming in the right direction

[Sara]

What's the temps for Bexhill please thanks

[Sussex Jules]

Everyone make a wish

[VillagePlank]

Good evening, all.

So, what's going to happen?

From GFS 18z, first the chance of snow given precipitation using the Theta-W charts,

Here's the profile for what's happened this evening, and what GFS is forecasting,

You can see that the warm sector pretty much left by 21z, leaving us with cold and getting colder conditions. If you are at height, ie > 50m ASL then I think if it precipitates, then it will fall as slow, otherwise I think you are left with the c.80% chance of snow, which, generally means the possibility of your neighbour getting some, and you getting nothing. Orography counts for everything in these scenarios.

What's the sweet spot for precipitation - it's 03z, perhaps a little earlier for the most of the SE,

Personally, I don't trust the precipitation charts. For instance, GFS 18z for midnight looks nothing like the radar. It must serve as a general guide only. Given that, I will take a punt at those around the Thames Estuary as being favourite, given the Vertical Velocity charts for 3am,

and, of course, anyone 50m ASL. This doesn't mean it won't snow, but it does look a little too marginal for setting snow at sea-level (to warm at the surface, rain coming quicker than DP are dropping) Of course, the converse is, that it is perfectly feasible to have DPs plumment and this is completely wrong.

That's my forecast *cough* guess for tonight.

Happy Radar Watching

xxx

[sarah7meme]

Can someone give me a brief snippet of an update before I head to bed

Been out all night

Got friend texting me saying -what's the story Michael fish !!

[A Wintry Mix]

Temp in Thanet 2.4,

It will snow here one day won't it?

Paul S your posts have made me chuckle tonight!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Just a tad, my nan from my "birth" ground is on holiday, so I have lost my "ear on the ground" there for now. (cold ear I agree)

Certainly going to be a shock when she gets off the plane in the UK if its any time soon!

[Kentspur]

Wow Costa del Medway

Isn't medway the most densely populated region in South East outside of London? Perhaps warmed by close proximity to estuary and also due to no snow cover unlike north of the region? If we get a good East to North easterly then it usually becomes one of the snowiest regions!

[Col Berkshire]

Can someone give me a brief snippet of an update before I head to bed

Been out all night

Got friend texting me saying -what's the story Michael fish !!

I think anyone from a line central London east is in with a shot. Early predictions placed it further west, but it looks unlikely to move that far looking at the radar. Of course this can change, so fingers crossed :-)

[Downpour]

lol great so instead of snow I get an ice rink, could be interesting if it happens though, I don't think I've seen freezing rain before.

It is vanishingly rare in this country. Think there was an incident up in the NW. It causes total chaos when it does happen. But I don't foresee London waking up to this

http://www.howitworksdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Ice.jpg