Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[russell k]

http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?15-0

ECM sustains a full snow event away from the south coast- as the surface cold doesnt get mixed out by the 0c isotherm-

Just need to see the next energy move south over the next 4 ECM runs

S

No I use him as a scarecrow- sadly I think he scared the snow away...S

look at the 516b over north wales showed as a dot on the meto earlier?

[bluearmy]

the angle and locale of the occlusion on ecm days 3 and 5 are identical. thicknesses almost identical across the uk. the placement of the zero c isotherm the same to the sw. the uppers acrioss the the uk have risen by several degrees afetr the intial occlusion has gone through. one would expect teh T144 to be similar to the 0z run - just hope it heads more se.

Edited January 15, 2013 by bluearmy

[Catacol]

ECM from 48 through to 96 just looks plain odd. Initial energy stalls, adopts a negative tilt, re energises and finally peters out. I cant remember seeing a stall and fizzle out scenario like that in my time as a weather junkie. It is bizarre, exciting and (I would think) an absolute bloody nightmare for the guys down at Exeter to make any sense of it. I dont think we will know until T+12 what is going to happen to this energy, and the exact angle of the tilt. I am hopeful of snow and fearful of cold rain all at once!

[V for Very Cold]

I wonder where experienced forecasters would put FI atm ?

[SMU]

an area of lower heights- more instability- if you look thats where the fragmented front would be in situ before getting shunted east-S

[Matty M]

Very interesting ECM , looks like we are seeing a strong signal to send the energy south!!

[Panayiotis]

Now thats what I want to see, very nice ECM, going for the channel low, seems the block to the north resisted and sent energy further south! It look very similar to the GEM, I wouldnt be surprised if another low came and did the same thing further into the run..

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Kentspur]

Some incredibly cold nights over the snow fields, brings back memories of classic winters past.

Although it would still be raining here in North West Kent in those temps lol

[SMU]

there we go- the ECM was listening....

Now we see just fragmented energy under the block- much more realistic...

very cold uppers continue to march SW through Scandi- more snow for the UK at 144-

S

[bluearmy]

thicknesses remain sub 528 across the uk. no thaw likely and with 500 heights as low as that, precip more likely to be snow, even with less conducive uppers. excellent

[swfc]

http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?15-0

there we go- the ECM was listening....

Now we see just fragmented energy under the block- much more realistic...

very cold uppers continue to march SW through Scandi- more snow for the UK at 144-

S

would the snow be just in the south west steve .thanks

[Continental Climate]

a pretty good chart has all the right ingredients of southerly tracking lows and heights to our north http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!!

One question about those heights can anyone tell me why they dont appear to be getting any stronger in fact they appear to be weakening if anything, i thought with a south jet they would naturally strengthen

[phil nw.]

ECM much the same out to T120hrs -cold,snow- trough extension SE towards France with much of the UK retaining freezing temps at the surface.

A forecasters nightmare to work out timings,amounts duration etc but looking very Wintery for many if these verified.

[Snowman.]

an area of lower heights- more instability- if you look thats where the fragmented front would be in situ before getting shunted east-S

Quick Question Steve

Do you think this is the main blast for the UK or more too come as I really don't see this lasting any longer than Monday.

[chris55]

Not too sure what to make of the FAX offerings at + 72.

the 528 Line barely touches the UK, surely that's not good news ?

Thickness' don't need to be below 528 in this situation with a continental flow. Snow can fall in thickness' of 540 in a continental climate!! Pop it into Google plenty of info around on the subject.

I would think the flow would become more south east as that front comes up against the block, as Steve says energy should slide/disrupt.

Edited January 15, 2013 by chris55

[nick sussex]

The current output brings me back to a question GP put the other day in terms of which is the more important signal for cold for the UK. A negative AO or negative NAO, I think thats how it was phrased but if GP is around he'll correct me if I have that wrong!

As we can see a positive NAO but negative AO here.

In terms of the ECM 168hrs it would have been much better without that piece of energy being left behind to phase with energy out of the eastern USA.

Overall though a good trend within 144hrs.

[Tom D]

Dear oh dear oh me. I mostly enjoy watching the discussion but this ECM is fantastic for cold. If this verifies we're in for a deep freeze. Exciting territory and potential. A few weeks ago we'd nearly written off this winter!

[Continental Climate]

Never mind our minus 4s and 6s look over near the great lakes http://www.meteociel...H0-168.GIF?15-0!! Chicago et al are going to be froze literally those 850's are the same as eastern siberia!!

A TRUE CONTINENTAL CLIMATE!!!

Imagine what -28s would produce from the north sea lol

Edited January 15, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Snowman.]

a pretty good chart has all the right ingredients of southerly tracking lows and heights to our north http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif!!

One question about those heights can anyone tell me why they dont appear to be getting any stronger in fact they appear to be weakening if anything, i thought with a south jet they would naturally strengthen

I believe its the fact that its just been attacked and shunted from it's original position.

[Iceni]

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?15-0

Dear oh dear oh me. I mostly enjoy watching the discussion but this ECM is fantastic for cold. If this verifies we're in for a deep freeze. Exciting territory and potential. A few weeks ago we'd nearly written off this winter!

Much like snow enthusiasts (if there were any) had written off 1947, I'd suspect. Nothing much happened until 21st January.

[SMU]

Quick Question Steve

Do you think this is the main blast for the UK or more too come as I really don't see this lasting any longer than Monday.

I expect a reload from the NE under the wedge of high- wont look spectacular in terms of big + VE high anomalies- but subtle dark blue heights from the east / NES

[NorthernRab]

Quick Question Steve

Do you think this is the main blast for the UK or more too come as I really don't see this lasting any longer than Monday.

On what basis?

Far too far away to tell in my opinion, but remember the effects of the SSW are expected to show their hand towards the end of the month.

[Iceni]

Never mind our minus 4s and 6s look over near the great lakes http://www.meteociel...H0-168.GIF?15-0!! Chicago et al are going to be froze literally those 850's are the same as eastern siberia!!

A TRUE CONTINENTAL CLIMATE!!!

Imagine what -28s would produce from the north sea lol

Jeeez! you'd be able to walk from the Western Highway NYC to the Statue of Liberty.

[dbaloo]

On what basis?

Far too far away to tell in my opinion, but remember the effects of the SSW are expected to show their hand towards the end of the month.

complete novice question but what is the SSW and how will it effect our weather?sorry for posting this question here

[ChartViewer]

Cold uppers pushing back at 192....blimey