Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[woldsowl]

have you a link?.thanks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

[Barry12]

You can view his thoughts here http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Edited January 15, 2013 by Barry95

[Supacell]

You can view his thoughts here http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Paul Hudson is a great forecaster and I miss his forecasts since moving from Yorkshire back to the Midlands. However, as Ian F says, this is the view of the Met Office based on the 00z runs. If the UKMO and ECM 12z models are anything like the GFS 12z then I would expect he may change his view of next week. Having said that, he and Ian F are the experts, I am a mere enthusiast.

Looking forward to the Met Offices views later though.

[woldsowl]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Anything for another Wednesdayite!

[swfc]

Anything for another Wednesdayite!

lets hope his revised forecast or the meto forecast will push some snow our way during the weekend.Things could fizzle out looking at the ukmo and gfs,in the earlier stages Edited January 15, 2013 by swfc

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Can anyone more knowledgable please clarify why we are looking at a probable undercut in this scenario when we have a relatively weak block (1020 mb or so) coupled with a ferocious amount of energy in the Atlantic (even allowing for the GFS being OTT as it surely is in that regard)?

Is it because with low pressure over the continent, the energy looks likely to take the path of least resistance, and that is to be found to the south?

Compare this to December. Why does the Atlantic not just blast the little Scandinavia high aside, as it did then? Yes I am a little sceptical about the models, but I guess if even the GFS is starting to show that at fairly short range....

I'm no expert but my understanding is that the jet over the Atlantic looses all its energy because it is not supported at higher altitude because of the Stratospheric warmings we have/are recently experiencing. Whilst it looks the same, the energy 'attacking' us isn't the same so the troughs disrupt instead of barreling over us... However by posting on here im sure I'm leaving this open for a better interpretation..... .

[Timmytour]

Continuing my look at one point in time. I have to say that, although the GFS was moving the low southwards yesterday, it seems to have, at this stage, firmed up on its projection of where it passes through the UK. Still think the cold uppers to the North east look more capable of pushing down though compared to earlier runs

And the next run...more progression from the NE? low a touch further south again?

[Panayiotis]

GEM gives us 2 channel lows, feeding us with bitter easterly winds and snow for the south, very juicy!

http://www.meteociel...geme_cartes.php

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Frosty.]

Epic Gfs 12z, I never thought a Southerly could be so cold

It's a run choc full of reloads of snowy weather with lows tracking into the resident cold pool over the uk. Blizzards on fri/sat.maybe even on sun/mon and more to come next week. Hoping the Ecm 12z has a similar angle of attack to the gfs. These are amazing charts for such a close time scale, surely the undercut is now the favoured option and a severe spell is on the way for a large swathe of the uk, white- out conditions would occur unlike anything we have seen in recent years, even dec 2010 would be eclypsed if the gfs 12z or something similar verified, heres hoping

[bluearmy]

Yes - that's the UKMO view into next week as based on 00z output but we await updated version circa midnight based on 12z runs.

ian, i appreciate that you cant go into specifics but is the latest MOGREPS rather different wrt the previous run re next week ?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

this is critical really because NAE has uppers sky rocketing on THURSDAY and RAPID snow to rain jobby ;(

Edited January 15, 2013 by happy days

[swfc]

this is critical really because NAE has uppers sky rocketing on THURSDAY and RAPID snow to rain jobby ;(

the nae has been dropped by the mo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM HAS everything further east at only 48hrs compared to gfs imo..hmmm

[SMU]

Evening ALL-

Little time to post so just one tonight- irrespective of the ECM--

Ive made no secret in the fact that I believe the models are being to bullish on 2 very key elements as we approach this weekend-

* Speed & Eastward progression of the jet - being to high & to far east

* Energy thats underneath the block being forced NE into the block rather than SE under it- the models really do struggle at every juncture when an area of Energy comes into close proximity to a blocking high to the NE-

On the above subject I believe that the NET evolution once you remove these tendancies is to see more of a 'slide' from the low & the energy to become framented SE ( or trough disruption as it should be called) & for the UK to stay on cold continental surface air- before eventually the energy breaks away to the SE & the high to the NE begins to exert its influence-

With this scenario snow will be less widespread to the North & NE, but what does fall remains as snow for longer- possibly staying as a full snow event- again- with the exception of the far South & SW....

I present the GEM 12z tonight which I fully belive to be the right solution after all the bias is removed....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

thanks for your time

S

[snowice]

12z ukmo vs gfs vs ecm+72

Edited January 15, 2013 by snowice

[Skyraker]

Evening ALL-

Little time to post so just one tonight- irrespective of the ECM--

Ive made no secret in the fact that I believe the models are being to bullish on 2 very key elements as we approach this weekend-

* Speed & Eastward progression of the jet - being to high & to far east

* Energy thats underneath the block being forced NE into the block rather than SE under it- the models really do struggle at every juncture when an area of Energy comes into close proximity to a blocking high to the NE-

On the above subject I believe that the NET evolution once you remove these tendancies is to see more of a 'slide' from the low & the energy to become framented SE ( or trough disruption as it should be called) & for the UK to stay on cold continental surface air- before eventually the energy breaks away to the SE & the high to the NE begins to exert its influence-

With this scenario snow will be less widespread to the North & NE, but what does fall remains as snow for longer- possibly staying as a full snow event- again- with the exception of the far South & SW....

I present the GEM 12z tonight which I fully belive to be the right solution after all the bias is removed....

http://www.meteociel...geme_cartes.php

thanks for your time

S

Quick Q; Is Ian Brown buried under your patio?

[Catacol]

This is model related.. trust me...

As others have hinted , this model output is similar to Jan 1947... As much as I love snow and cold, the following makes sober reading.

"The winter is also cited as a factor in the devaluation of the pound from $4.03 to $2.80, Britain's decline from superpower status and the introduction of the Marshall Plan to aid war-torn Europe."

I can assure you that the European winter of 46/47 had absolutely nothing to do with the Marshall Plan. US political scheming was ongoing regardless of the weather!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[russell k]

Quick Q; Is Ian Brown buried under your patio?

Brilliant Yes with a snorkel! lol.. from what the charts are showing!

[Frosty.]

Some incredibly cold nights over the snow fields, brings back memories of classic winters past.

[SMU]

ECM sustains a full snow event away from the south coast- as the surface cold doesnt get mixed out by the 0c isotherm-

Just need to see the next energy move south over the next 4 ECM runs

S

Quick Q; Is Ian Brown buried under your patio?

No I use him as a scarecrow- sadly I think he scared the snow away...S

[Panayiotis]

ECM looking good at 120hrs however the block to the north isnt as strong as the UKMO or GFS, but hopefully it will be enough to send the low to take a more southerly route.

[dyl232]

ECM sustains a full snow event away from the south coast- as the surface cold doesnt get mixed out by the 0c isotherm-

Just need to see the next energy move south over the next 4 ECM runs

S

No I use him as a scarecrow- sadly I think he scared the snow away...S

Hi could you tell me what does the dark small blob over nw wales mean plz?

[EML Network]

Not too sure what to make of the FAX offerings at + 72.

the 528 Line barely touches the UK, surely that's not good news ?

[Panayiotis]

Not too sure what to make of the FAX offerings at + 72.

the 528 Line barely touches the UK, surely that's not good news ?

I can see the 528line just SW of Ireland or am i reading it wrong? Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[nick sussex]

Not too sure what to make of the FAX offerings at + 72.

the 528 Line barely touches the UK, surely that's not good news ?

It doesn't matter because you're pulling in lower dew points from the continent. The 528 dam is not really a useful tool with this type of set up.