Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Panayiotis]

ECM precipitation charts for those interested > http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

Fridays band gives a country wide event (although more marginal in South Wales and South west), with the heaviest snow in the western counties.

A further band of precipitation on Sunday night, giving further snow to many

And to add this is Friday's upper air temp, shows why parts miss out on the snow (the oranges is the mild sector).

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[TEITS]

Although watching with great interest and anticipation I get a certain feeling of deja vue concerning some of the postings. I have seen all this unrestrained hype before where model out put suggest a possible cold snap. Any chance that eventually somebody (or more than one model) might get it right?

Possibly more restraint and unbiased consideration might be the the order of the day.

We can only comment on what the models are showing. Also worth adding that as for a sense of deja Vu then what the models are suggesting is far from typical. Normally we associate the return of the Atlantic after a cold spell as short spell of snow followed by rain and turning milder. However due to the track and angle of these LP systems we could see this remain as snow and only milder temps reaching the far SW.

[georgiedre]

And to add this is Friday's upper air temp, shows why parts miss out on the snow (the oranges is the mild sector).

so most of wales getting no snow!!! ???

[R.P. McMurphy]

Although watching with great interest and anticipation I get a certain feeling of deja vue concerning some of the postings. I have seen all this unrestrained hype before where model out put has suggested a possible cold snap. Any chance that eventually somebody (or more than one model) might get it right?

Possibly more restraint and unbiased consideration might be the the order of the day.

Not too sure what you mean by this. All the signals remain in place for sustained cold. The difference here is we are not in mild air waiting for cold only to be let down, we ARE in a sustained period of cold and it's set to continue.

[mistyqueen]

Will someone please kick that Atlantic front into touch please? All it will bring me is rain......

[Panayiotis]

so most of wales getting no snow!!! ???

Sorry I know the answer but why do you say this? Its more likely to be snow.. Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Matty M]

I anticipate a correction south-west in the coming model output because it is often the case that these fronts do not make it as far east as first though.

[Cheese Rice]

Some really cold 850's pushing up against the front on the UKMO. An all powder snow event on this run.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Sorry I know the answer but why do you say this? Its more likely to be snow..

Not so sure about that. It remains in the balance for Wales and SW England at the moment, still a lot to play for, with a few days left for the models to twist and turn, but it's Marginal. Albeit I foresee snow.

[Matty M]

so most of wales getting no snow!!! ???

No not that simple, you should be fine with the southeasterly feed. and the orange is from 0 to -4c. If you have 850hPa temps with that flow of below -1.5/2c you should be fine.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Matty M

[fazzafarrand]

Does anybody know what will be happening to the front / ppn coming in over Ireland ATM?

Edited January 15, 2013 by fazzafarrand

[Joker]

this could be breaking news come friday mark my words ecm is a snow fest

Phil Avery's latest bulletin includes his "concern" as fronts march east at the weekend.

"National emergency, quick - put the army on standby!"

[Stevetynant]

Sorry I know the answer but why do you say this? Its more likely to be snow..

Presumably because of the chart you posted above showing the milder section in yellow/ orange lying all over Wales?

[weather_it_will]

Does anybody know what will be happening to the front / ppn coming in over Ireland ATM?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

[Matty M]

Does anybody know what will be happening to the front / ppn coming in over Ireland ATM?

Stalling, fizzling out and sliding south.

Some residual precip will likely hug eastern Ireland tomorrow with some cold drizzle.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

And to add this is Friday's upper air temp, shows why parts miss out on the snow (the oranges is the mild sector).

Looking at tonight run how far west does the warm sector reach across the UK or is that the extent as things currently stand? Thanks GSL

[MR EXTREMES]

Sorry I was rather vague in my post.

When I referred to a short lived break I was meaning more for some locations such as SW, Extreme S counties of England. This could extend further N or S yet although you have to fancy the general pattern to be pushed further S.

i hope so i touched apon the mixing out this morning for the south in 09/10 we had brillant snow events caused by similar setup but this time it looks very knife edge stuff.

im hoping just a little correction south greedy i know but i said to the kids maybe a good snow event on friday.

[fazzafarrand]

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760862.stm

Thanks,

seems to just get split straight down the middle, one lot North and one lot South.

Ian

[Panayiotis]

Presumably because of the chart you posted above showing the milder section in yellow/ orange lying all over Wales?

so most of wales getting no snow!!! ???

Not so sure about that. It remains in the balance for Wales and SW England at the moment, still a lot to play for, with a few days left for the models to twist and turn, but it's Marginal. Albeit I foresee snow.

Presumably because of the chart you posted above showing the milder section in yellow/ orange lying all over Wales?

Please read the key, as you can see the cream/brown is the -5C upper temp, thats good for snow, and with the feed coming off the continent the dew points will be low=snow.

This wasn't meant to sound mean, just wanted to help anyone with queries/questions and I could see why people might have been worried for a minute or two.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[R.P. McMurphy]

Looking at tonight run how far west does the warm sector reach across the UK or is that the extent as things currently stand? Thanks GSL

That should be pretty much it. The Block is strong, can't see the milder air coming any closer than that!

[kev238]

The difference between this spell and other hyped spells is that this is at 72 hours. Not 120 or 144. The pattern is broadly set and somewhere is going to be hammered between friday and Sunday. What is less clear is whether it will eventually break into milder or send us back to the freezer. Based on this evening, the latter seems more likely, and I can't wait.

The boundary only has to shift 200 miles to be very different so this is a slight caution for beyond the end of the weekend!

[M1245]

Phil Avery's latest bulletin includes his "concern" as fronts march east at the weekend.

"National emergency, quick - put the army on standby!"

Are the fronts and the potential snow expected to reach the far east?

[karlos1983]

And to add this is Friday's upper air temp, shows why parts miss out on the snow (the oranges is the mild sector).

And the yellow bit? What's that, undecided?

Looked at key, ignore me

Edited January 15, 2013 by karlos1983

[weather_it_will]

I have seen all this unrestrained hype before where model out put has suggested a possible cold snap. Any chance that eventually somebody (or more than one model) might get it right?

Possibly more restraint and unbiased consideration might be the the order of the day.

This the model discussion thread and not the weather forecast.

The models are open to interpretation, and each will be different, and everyone that reads the charts will have differing views.

[ChartViewer]

CMA T96......westward correction

Edited January 15, 2013 by ChartViewer