London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

[Coast]

I think I may have done another little wee........

Nurse!!! Fetch a bedpan!!!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Quite simply do not worry yet, it is not good for your health

3 Options

1. Front does not reach us and the Block battles it back leaves us in cold continental air, dry and Cold. 7/4 odds

2. Front makes it easily and raises temps to 4c or 5c for Late Weekend start of next week, would be some great Snow for a time before slushy mess quite quickly, could also spell the end of this current cold spell. 5/4 odds

3. Front makes it and then undercuts moving east through France and then drawing in cold east or north east winds staying cold throughout. 3/1 Odds

The usual default for us in this region is number 2 which is why it would usuallybe favourite in my opinion, number 1 would be like those 80's winters where the Atlantic would have 3 or 4 attempts at moving that dense cold high, and number 3 is what happened pretty much from 21st January 1947 to March 1st 1947, think I am right in saying the Atlantic had no less that 7 attempts before a Super Low pressure finally slapped it's backside in the end!

A lot of Model output has been hinting at number 3, and GP's post in the Model Thread this morning was hinting at that very outcome, he is expecting another attack from the NE End of Month and into February so all to play for still!

Slightly concerned at the Southerlies before the system comes through warming the boundary layer, need those South Easterlies to transition from the Southeries quite quickly i would hope!

Regards

Paul S

Edited January 16, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I expect the Amber warnings to go out tomorrow morning or tonight maybe tomorrow afternoon for this event..

Maybe even a few reds further North of our region

[Southender]

A 150 odd mile shift EAST of the snow band on Fri/Sat. ALL of us under the snow band by 8-9pm Friday night.

Much better for those like me out on the East coast!

But with such varying differences, we cannot be sure where it will stall.

Most probably a radar watch job on Fri afternoon...

[Sussex Jules]

Bunch of worry worts the lot of ya

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@ paul... Surely if the low takes the right path.. It would pull the cold east winds (Undercutting) the low.. This is what the model thread are chatting about...

[Paul Sherman]

A 150 odd mile shift EAST of the snow band on Fri/Sat. ALL of us under the snow band by 8-9pm Friday night.

Much better for those like me out on the East coast!

But with such varying differences, we cannot be sure where it will stall.

Most probably a radar watch job on Fri afternoon...

And that is why most of us have little faith in the Goofus Model in short term Mesoscale features!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[bobbydog]

06z GFS gives us over 24 hours of snowfal!!!!!

[Coast]

Still indicating snow through Saturday:

For some in our region, if this panned out as forecast here, we could get 24 hours+ of falling snow:

[Paul Sherman]

@ paul... Surely if the low takes the right path.. It would pull the cold east winds (Undercutting) the low.. This is what the model thread are chatting about...

Yes

Never said it would not did I ? Goes to check post, thought that was Option 3 on the table

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yes

Never said it would not did I ? Goes to check post, thought that was Option 3 on the table

My bad I was just backing you up that's all

[Downpour]

Its probably really quite Sad but when I brought my new Garden Table I got Black specifically in case it was frosty and snowed again as Black shows up the Flakes better. The Fence that they were on last year was taken down so I had to get something to replace it LOL

Excuse my ignorance Tilly, but how do you take those pictures? They are amazing.

[Paul Sherman]

My bad I was just backing you up that's all

No probs

It is just Option 3 and what the Models are indicating has been soooo rare for the SE, Has happened quite a lot from the Midlands Northwards.

I am still of the opinion the period 12th Jan to 12 Feb could see an amazingly low CET! Maybe on a par with December 2010!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[NO LONGER POSTING]

if the 06z was to come off...

No probs

It is just Option 3 and what the Models are indicating has been soooo rare for the SE, Has happened quite a lot from the Midlands Northwards.

I am still of the opinion the period 12th Jan to 12 Feb could see an amazingly low CET! Maybe on a par with December 2010!

Some of the models look over played smashing 2010 out the water... I would be very surprised to see that but could happen!

[Southender]

GFS accumulation charts for Midday Saturday. Show 10mm+ generally for all of our region.

Large pinch of (Rock) salt required.

The fact that in just 6 hours it has gone from stalling the snow to the west of London, to taking out to the east coast should tell you all you need to know.

Dont trust any model at the moment. Prob best to look at everything available and go down the middle. You will be nearer to the truth then.

[Tilly]

Excuse my ignorance Tilly, but how do you take those pictures? They are amazing.

Hee hee thanks

Erm, just get very close and take it. Its just a Panasonic Lumix TZ10, nothing special. I don't know how to use the camera properly yet (note to self must learn) I can't get the macro to focus on it so just put the camera as close to the Flake as possible, careful not to breathe on them or they melt lol!

[throwoff]

Those charts are amazing.

I always worry when they get 'that' good!

[Coast]

careful not to breathe on them or they melt lol!

Hot stuff huh??!! :lol:

[SMU]

As posted above the GFs 06z has the PPN inline with the Euros with 24 hours snofall over london & the SE

With the Pivot point in EA ( perfect))

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011606/54-779.GIF?16-6 T54

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011606/78-779.GIF?16-6 T78

if we assume modest accumulation rates of 0.5cm per hour across the piste then 12cms is the MEAN- with 20cm & beyond over the hills-

my preditions of mega cold surface air are still in place on the T96 dewpoint chart

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011606/96-778.GIF?16-6

sub -7 over the region widely- heading towards -20c over Wales-

As it stands we are PERFECT- NO CHANGE PLEASE-

however being t48 theres still room for it to go wrong....

S

[hernebaylooby]

ive got polystyrene balls flying round my garden again so excited for the main event friday/saturday!

[throwoff]

As posted above the GFs 06z has the PPN inline with the Euros with 24 hours snofall over london & the SE

With the Pivot point in EA ( perfect))

...

...

if we assume modest accumulation rates of 0.5cm per hour across the piste then 12cms is the MEAN- with 20cm & beyond over the hills-

my preditions of mega cold surface air are still in place on the T96 dewpoint chart

http://91.121.16.5/m...96-778.GIF?16-6

sub -7 over the region widely- heading towards -20c over Wales-

As it stands we are PERFECT- NO CHANGE PLEASE-

however being t48 theres still room for it to go wrong....

S

COME ON!!!!

[SMU]

More heavy snow moving across us at day 5...

LOL

[Coast]

As it stands we are PERFECT- NO CHANGE PLEASE-

however being t48 theres still room for it to go wrong....

[nanu]

GFS accumulation charts for Midday Saturday. Show 10mm+ generally for all of our region.

Large pinch of (Rock) salt required.

The fact that in just 6 hours it has gone from stalling the snow to the west of London, to taking out to the east coast should tell you all you need to know.

Dont trust any model at the moment. Prob best to look at everything available and go down the middle. You will be nearer to the truth then.

exactly... i think its a case it may even come down to 2hrs away from the event that i may finally believe it.. honest to god, i dont trust in any of these models, let down soooooo many times.

[Southender]

As posted above the GFs 06z has the PPN inline with the Euros with 24 hours snofall over london & the SE

With the Pivot point in EA ( perfect))

...

...

if we assume modest accumulation rates of 0.5cm per hour across the piste then 12cms is the MEAN- with 20cm & beyond over the hills-

my preditions of mega cold surface air are still in place on the T96 dewpoint chart

http://91.121.16.5/m...96-778.GIF?16-6

sub -7 over the region widely- heading towards -20c over Wales-

As it stands we are PERFECT- NO CHANGE PLEASE-

however being t48 theres still room for it to go wrong....

S

That being the key point.

Correction East & West will continue I think, right up to T+6

Plenty of drama to come.