London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

[Southender]

100% Amber by late Tomorrow Boar!

But are the Meto now going with my Option 2 (The 5/4 Fav) and seeing this as a progressive feature ?

Interesting!

Just for anyone that missed it here were Pauls options:

3 Options

1. Front does not reach us and the Block battles it back leaves us in cold continental air, dry and Cold. 7/4 odds

2. Front makes it easily and raises temps to 4c or 5c for Late Weekend start of next week, would be some great Snow for a time before slushy mess quite quickly, could also spell the end of this current cold spell. 5/4 odds

3. Front makes it and then undercuts moving east through France and then drawing in cold east or north east winds staying cold throughout. 3/1 Odds

Paul, what makes you think option 2 is being favoured?

[Southender]

Amber warnings for areas further North and West of the UK. "With accumulations of more than 10-15 cm of snow could well occur quite widely"

Hmmm. Would that suggest a stalling front?

Edited January 16, 2013 by Shrimper

[Buzzit]

Paul, what makes you think option 2 is being favoured?

To butt in : I think the Met is going with the form horse until proven otherwise - sensible at this point in time being still +72 away

[london-snow]

Just for anyone that missed it here were Pauls options:

3 Options

1. Front does not reach us and the Block battles it back leaves us in cold continental air, dry and Cold. 7/4 odds

2. Front makes it easily and raises temps to 4c or 5c for Late Weekend start of next week, would be some great Snow for a time before slushy mess quite quickly, could also spell the end of this current cold spell. 5/4 odds

3. Front makes it and then undercuts moving east through France and then drawing in cold east or north east winds staying cold throughout. 3/1 Odds

Paul, what makes you think option 2 is being favoured?

I love a outsider. Put me down for £30 on trap 3 !

[SMU]

the favourite is the pivot not the run through-

the run through is the Garrison Savannah- rank outsider to stop short of winning...

THe pivot point location is the difficult one- currently modelled close to EA

S

[Southender]

the favourite is the pivot not the run through-

the run through is the Garrison Savannah- rank outsider to stop short of winning...

THe pivot point location is the difficult one- currently modelled close to EA

S

What do you make of the Amber warning for SE Wales, W.Mids up to the N.West region Steve?

Pivot to occur further NW?

Edited January 16, 2013 by Shrimper

[Kent Blizzard]

So the Yellow Alert is out for us on Friday as expected http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

I expect ours to change to Orange also maybe late tonight or by tomorrow lunchtime, I suspect the SW is Orange already purely due to timescale.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Kent Blizzard

[Laurence Hill]

the favourite is the pivot not the run through-

the run through is the Garrison Savannah- rank outsider to stop short of winning...

THe pivot point location is the difficult one- currently modelled close to EA

S

Steve, if you ever give up wx forecasting, seriously suggest you take up compiling cryptic crosswords. As this is the regional thread could you whack a few laymans terms into your post.

Kind regards

[john mac]

Well, ive got a 7 month old husky, looks like shes going to be pulling me to work on my sledge to saturday morning

[alexisj9]

Steve, if you ever give up wx forecasting, seriously suggest you take up compiling cryptic crosswords. As this is the regional thread could you whack a few laymans terms into your post.

Kind regards

He thinks the front will stall and then start to turn over EA.

[Great Plum]

Reigate Grammar School reporting 0.3c, dewpoint -1.0c

[Stormi]

Temp -0.8c here in Walderslade. Fog seems to be getting thicker.

Fingers crossed Friday.

[Laurence Hill]

He thinks the front will stall and then start to turn over EA.

Many thanks

[VillagePlank]

T = -1.2c

T_d = -2.4

RH = 91%

[Mark Neal.]

Steve, BFTP et all.. I'm probably the most western person on this thread, just wondering if you think the band will reach me quite easily? I reckon at leasta few cm of light snow...? Would appreciate your thoughts as am very busy on Friday and could cause disruption.. Thanks

[Kent Blizzard]

Temp -0.8c here in Walderslade. Fog seems to be getting thicker.

Fingers crossed Friday.

WOW never thought I would see another person from this area in a weather forum, Hi

[Kent Blizzard]

I honestly reckon we will enter the Orange Zone of that warning by the end of today actually, purely because they will be worried about the impact in London.

We still need few things to go our way to get decent snowfall out of this event but I'm confident of 5+cms quite widely, maybe 2cm on the far East Coast of Kent.

[Croydondazz]

I don't know what u all think about metcheck but its latest forecast gives me nearly 2 weeks of snow

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=Sm6%208nf

Sent from my iPad

[mrkipling]

GP ramping in the MO thread - recommending contingency planning for a prolonged cold spell!

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2508688

Edited January 16, 2013 by mrkipling

[Kent Blizzard]

I don't know what u all think about metcheck but its latest forecast gives me nearly 2 weeks of snow

http://www.metcheck....zipcode=Sm6 8nf

Sent from my iPad

Computer generated rubbish I believe? Never take much note of anything like that, only computer based forecast I do look at is Meto.

That Metcheck had me down for 10days of snow over Christmas lol

[Laurence Hill]

Glacier Point on the Model forum recent post, sounds quite concerned about forthcoming inclement weather.

I find he is normally vague, but this time quite open.

[Tom Jarvis]

I wouldn't be surprised if we were put in a red warning on Thursday night

RAAAAMMMMPPPPP

[craigore]

Concerned regarding the snow fri/sat... We have just had a snow shower in ramsgate ,nothing heavy but a snow shower all the same and never looked like settling, which is not surprisnig given the temp, which at the moment is hovering around +2c , my concern therefore is it wont settle on friday either, given these sort of temps and wind off the channel like it will be on friday..

Good luck for those inland......

I WOULD LIKE OPTION 3 PLEASE....

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah sorry Shrimper been away from the Forum for a bit.

As i think Buzzit said a page ago that would be the default mode (Or Form Horse) and maybe the Met are just hedging bets at the moment, I certainly would not call this one until very late tomorrow night, maybe even later than that.

Question for Steve though, this looks like one of those Midlands favoured scenarios, where would you expect the Low to go now and what is stopping this from turning to rain and getting very messy SE and South of the stalling zone as per numerous other events like this over the course of time as the boundary layer warms say by Sunday.

[Stormi]

WOW never thought I would see another person from this area in a weather forum, Hi

Hi