London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

[Weathizard]

Being on the South coast, with winds coming off the Channel ahead of the snow band, there is always a chance of some marginality creeping in there. But, I think even the coasties "should" be ok for an all snow jobbie on Fri/Sat. IF the snow makes it of course.

Dew points look sufficient as do upper temp profiles, SEly winds aren`t too bad in fact I personally think in the breeze with a SE wind its exceptionally cold

[Buzzit]

I am waiting for the met to remove "but turning to rain from sunday" from their 3-5 day outlook.

I am expecting that to happen by tonight - If not I will be concerned, not over the snow fest - but over whether we hold on to it

[Tamara]

Dewpoints by Friday morning are suggested to be well below freezing everywhere on that southerly feed of air from a frozen France. This goes round more to the south east and even east as the low to the west slips to the south of us through Saturday, so it looks as though on that basis there would be no marginality anywhere in the region during the whole period. Its only by Sunday with the following low that question marks appear more. However, with still two days to go, it is best to remain cautious about the whole thing .

[CrimsonSunset]

Wow, 95% risk of snow Friday and Saturday? That's surely overdone! Beginning to look forward to it now, but still cautious

http://www.netweathe...l-it-snow;sess=

Edited January 16, 2013 by CrimsonSunset

[WillinGlossop]

Fog getting thicker here.....

[SMU]

So people when you post lets have a round up of temps if you have them for your back yard--

I would guestimate here in downtown bexleyheath-

-0.5 c surface temp-

-2c DP

S

[WillinGlossop]

-1c dew -2c chilly

[SMU]

& last point from me- the GFS 06z is the first to develop a slight hook on the South of the front at around t72 which will inject more moisture into the flow & beef PPn up-

worth watching tonight-

S

[Southender]

Southend:

Temp: -1.4c

Dew: -2.4c

Wind: NW @ 3mph

Humidity: 93%

[Tilly]

Still 2 days away but it's encouraging to see the meto yellow warning for snow extended right over us now too in the SE. Apologies if this has been posted already

[Meggy]

-0.5 in Thurrock, and still foggy!

CD

Hi CD

Yes, I took my son to South Essex College in thick fog this morning and it always amazes me how many people drive without any lights in fog!!!

[Planet Stow]

Still 2 days away but it's encouraging to see the meto yellow warning for snow extended right over us now too in the SE. Apologies if this has been posted already

METO confidence levels must be high for the south east now

Hopefully it will pull off as currently stated!

[Laurence Hill]

Raynes Park SW20

Temp 0.2

Sorry don't have DP, couldn't decide which wx station to get for xmas!

[Southender]

And right on cue. Latest in from the Met Office:

Issued at - 16 Jan 2013, 10:56

Valid from - 18 Jan 2013, 03:00

Valid to - 18 Jan 2013, 23:55

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest. The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Shrimper

[Paul Sherman]

Still 2 days away but it's encouraging to see the meto yellow warning for snow extended right over us now too in the SE. Apologies if this has been posted already

No it hadnt been posted you are the first I think!

Thanks Tilly

[Buzzit]

METO confidence levels must be high for the south east now

Hopefully it will pull off as currently stated!

Yes its better but they have updated graphics to show even more rain / sleet for coastal areas come Sunday than previous...

I'm sure it will all change but just looking out for our coastal friends

It makes sense for Met to be cautious as the track of the low and any warm air mixing in is certainly still up for debate come the later part of the weekend

Edited January 16, 2013 by Buzzit

[EastMallingPilgrim]

Locksbottom (south of Bromley) -2

[john mac]

Epping, essex

temps -2.6c

dewpoint -3c

[Kent Blizzard]

I shall be updating my fun snow risk map.for Kent later.

Very encouraging updates, Not worried about Sunday at this stage :-)

Freezing Fog here.

P.S terrible news about Helicopter crash in London

[VillagePlank]

Still 2 days away but it's encouraging to see the meto yellow warning for snow extended right over us now too in the SE. Apologies if this has been posted already

They've also changed their snow depths from 5-10cm and possibly 15cm on high ground to "accumulations of more than 10cm are possible in many parts" Also, impact risk is now at it's highest level. If the event becomes more likely then it's off to amber ... possibly even red warnings.

T=-1.2c

T_d=-2.4c

RH=91%

Edited January 16, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Buzzit]

P.S terrible news about Helicopter crash in London

I go into Waterloo and my track is the one closest to the event - only saw the aftermath (after fires etc out) but it must of being really shocking at the time - my thoughts are with everyone involved and our emergency services. One of the burnt out cars was literally only a few meters from the track.

[chmape]

people who are wondering about will it snow on the coast etc

if the models are correct (se) direction then it should stay as snow not just because it will be cold but we are closer to France (and the continent ) so there is less ocean to cross so stays colder.

where as from the south west there is alot more ocean to cover so more warmer air can be collected so turning it to sleet or rain (unless there is severe cold)

but where i am the downs do have a big impact on quite a wide area.

Edited January 16, 2013 by chmape

[Paul Sherman]

100% Amber by late Tomorrow Boar!

But are the Meto now going with my Option 2 (The 5/4 Fav) and seeing this as a progressive feature ?

Interesting!

[Snowman31]

Hi everyone, Looking forward to the snow on fri/sat. Just wanted to ask is it likely to turn back to rain? and if so why would that be considering the favourable dewpoints and temps?

S

[Yellow Army]

Keeping an ear out at work as I work for a Government department that deals with emergency planning etc.

5cm of snow for central London is already being thrown about.