Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Hi Paul T

I was under the impression Monday Tuesday for South wales was very marginal as the LP does not come east enough and stays out in the irish Sea same for tuesday does not come far north enough and stays over SW.

[lord stratus]

Hi Paul T

I was under the impression Monday Tuesday for South wales was very marginal as the LP does not come east enough and stays out in the irish Sea same for tuesday does not come far north enough and stays over SW.

I think it's best to keep an eye on the weather updates during the coming week regarding the snow events. There will be changes in snow distribution and marginality. The latest weather update on the BBC is struggling with the westward extent of the snow tomorrow for example. I wouldn't mind betting there will be a few surprises in store for some next week!

Edited January 19, 2013 by lord stratus

[Joker]

For me the 06Z indicates the big potential for this cold spell to roll on and on.

The current set up for next week gives a continuous flow that continually undercuts us in the UK. The low pressure systems that the GFS had previously forecast as strolling across the UK next Wed/Thurs are now being programmed with much more potential for undercutting.

In my view what we are seeing is a flow would usually be a W/SW'rly zonal type flow, but the SSW and Northern blocking are combining nicely now and 'saving' us from this boredom.

7/8 days ago the GFS did at many times show milder Westerly’s for the UK today, however we are currently under an Easterly influence with snow lying across the UK.

Undercut central:

Undercut tomorrow:

undercut on Tuesday:

Undercut on Wednesday:

Increasing undercut potential next Friday:

More undercut potential next Saturday?:

The snow potential from these charts is really strong. Not least mentioning that during tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday there are pretty chunky snow events happening at different areas of the UK.

Good times.

As you say, exciting times and let's face it very interesting model watching. I mean, we could have zonal or anticyclonic gloom - both horrible. The snow potential for the UK is 10/10 and we should be thankful that conditions are just perfect. How many winters can we say that for ie a powerful SSW resulting in a cold block and numerous troughs and frontal systems one after the other crossing the country from all directions? All eyes now to the Greenland HIGH building and the depression forming over in France - some radar watching there later today is in order!

[Paul T]

Hi Paul T

I was under the impression Monday Tuesday for South wales was very marginal as the LP does not come east enough and stays out in the irish Sea same for tuesday does not come far north enough and stays over SW.

Hi David,

Firstly, Mods, feel free to move to regionals?

The ppn associated with the Lows on Monday and Tuesday is very unpredictable and will be really difficult to forecast - wait for the forecasters later today to warn of the potential snow on monday/Tuesday, but only 'vaguely' (and rightly so!).

What is most likely IMO? The general pattern is the bulk of the ppn may initally slide through the SW and maybe under Wales, but will then make progress (but weaken) into Wales and England.

It is something that will be sorted by two things: The NAE charts from +24/30hrs and watching the radar when its happening!

Edited January 19, 2013 by Paul T

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Off topic mods sorry, but thought many on here might be interested in watching BBC 2 tonight at 17.30 pm - Winter Watch special all about the Winter of 1963! I for one can't wait

[Frosty.]

For south east it was VERY wrong, timing was wrong, precipitation rates were WRONG. Many of us were discussing it all day yesterday in the regional. Will be interesting to see how accurate it is for tomorrow!

Well it should be better tomorrow because it's a southeast event initially, unlike yesterday when it was southwest, southeast, midlands, wales and n.ireland event, a lot more focus on the southeast tomorrow so more problems for heathrow among other places.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Jason M]

Well it should be better tomorrow because it's a southeast event initially, unlike yesterday when it was southwest, southeast, midlands, wales and n.ireland event, a lot more focus on the southeast tomorrow so more problems for heathrow among other places.

Or to put in more simply, an everywhere but Essex and Kent event :-)

[Frosty.]

Or to put in more simply, an everywhere but Essex and Kent event :-)

you will need a good snowshield to avoid what the models are showing for the southeast tomorrow, and then it spreads all the way up the eastern side of the uk and merges with the coastal snow showers returning as pressure falls once again and winds begin to strengthen, round 2 of the snow is just around the corner.

[suffolkboy_]

you will need a good snowshield to avoid what the models are showing for the southeast tomorrow, and then it spreads all the way up the eastern side of the uk and merges with the coastal snow showers returning as pressure falls once again and winds begin to strengthen, round 2 of the snow is just around the corner.

Although possibly marginal close to the coast?

Edited January 19, 2013 by suffolkboy_

[lord stratus]

Although possibly marginal close to the coast?

Looking at the latest charts, I doubt it will be marginal as we will be importing colder air along with the snow.

[stratty]

you will need a good snowshield to avoid what the models are showing for the southeast tomorrow, and then it spreads all the way up the eastern side of the uk and merges with the coastal snow showers returning as pressure falls once again and winds begin to strengthen, round 2 of the snow is just around the corner.

..........round 3 Frosty! Last Monday/Friday and now tomorrow hopefully!

How many rounds can it buy before we done!?!

[Snowman.]

you will need a good snowshield to avoid what the models are showing for the southeast tomorrow, and then it spreads all the way up the eastern side of the uk and merges with the coastal snow showers returning as pressure falls once again and winds begin to strengthen, round 2 of the snow is just around the corner.

I think he might have meant Monday and Tuesday. This really does belong in some other thread im sure about it.

[Summer Sun]

NAE for Monday

[Ice Day]

Very early days, but better 850 uppers in the South at 30 hours

[Panayiotis]

SE may get crippled once again by the snow at 30hrs, hope it edges a bit more west then I could get another descent snowfall!

[Panayiotis]

Hmm very interesting is that a link up I see there?

[Panayiotis]

For Tuesday now the SW and especially Wales will be crippled at 72hrs on the UKMO!

That ties in with the SE snow event on Sunday causing the south to be completely crippled over the next 3 days!

Edited January 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[TEITS]

I've seen enough of the output at +72 to even know that this outlook is far from settled.

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-96.png?12

We have a lobe of PV to the SW of Greenland and a lobe moving into N Scandinavia. Now in my opinion the models are going to struggle which has the greater impact on our weather pattern. The key question is how much energy E will the lobe of PV over SW Greenland send across the Atlantic. Are the models overdoing this?

Im expecting even the UKMO/ECM to struggle and I wouldn't be surprised if tonights ECM is much better than the 0Z.

For Tuesday now the SW and especially Wales will be crippled at 72hrs on the UKMO!

That ties in with the south to be completely crippled over the next 3 days!

Have you seen the predicted temps though.

Edited January 19, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[clark3r]

Rain or sleet i think for Tuesday?

[johnholmes]

For Tuesday now the SW and especially Wales will be crippled at 72hrs on the UKMO!

That ties in with the south to be completely crippled over the next 3 days!

I think your comment is a bit OTT to be honest but time will tell as ever

[The Northern Ramper]

Rain or sleet i think for Tuesday?

For where and based on which model?

[Im no expert....but]

For Tuesday now the SW and especially Wales will be crippled at 72hrs on the UKMO!

That ties in with the SE snow event on Sunday causing the south to be completely crippled over the next 3 days!

[clark3r]

Based on the UKMO for 72 hr for the south and south west! if im reading the chart right! looks to me as less cold air will be mixed in.

[Im no expert....but]

If by crippled you mean under water as a result of rapid snow melt and heavy rain then i would have to agree.

[Ice Day]

Still looking cold at 126