Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards

[Panayiotis]

Well the Nae 12z out and its now at 18mm =18cm for tuesday.....Lol

Its not out to Tuesday ... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Edited January 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

Its not out to Tuesday ... http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Precip accumulations are, these are released earlier

[snowy36]

Its not out to Tuesday ... http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Pan the precipitation comes out first, thats the first think i look at.

[J10]

Its not out to Tuesday ... http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

The accumulated precipitation is out

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

This is up to date despite other NAE charts not updating yet.

Looking at this some heavy precipitation 10mm+ in 6hrs for parts of SE Wales and Central Wales, Wouldn't need much a of a correction to effect other parts of Wales.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Jackone

[snowy36]

Precip accumulations are, these are released earlier

Beat me to it.

[keithlucky]

Good, could you give me the link? Maybe they are taking in account this trough?

Just scroll days on bottom of map http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map

[whiskers]

i have just witnessed the council bringing a tractor up my street to remove the snow on the road and then the gritter coming behind it.I have never ever seen this in my life as our street never gets gritted.turns out their trying to do as many streets as the can.maybe they know something we don't or the complaints have been pouring in from people who wont drive in snow!

this happened in my street yesterday,couldn't believe it,how dare they ruin our snow!

[bradymk]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map&map=CloudAndRain&fcTime=1358758800&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=52.77 The MetO high res showing some heavy precip to the south west 21:00 tomorrow. It has been there for a few runs now and it is moving north eastwards. Lets hope it is still there once they update to 00:00

[snowy36]

What ever happens it happens between 6 and 12 oclock tuesday morning. In that time 16mm falls, now thats more than friday.

If only we could see mogreps to see if it agree's.

Edited January 20, 2013 by snowy36

[snefnug]

NMM shows some snow for this area until at least 20:00, although easing after around 17:00.

Thanks. Looking at the radar run for the last few hours, the swirly blue green seems to be moving more across to the west, rather than tracking north as forecast. If that's so, then I suspect a further couple of inches of snow could fall in the next couple of hours. So long holiday, hello oil tank refill!

[Ginkrots]

There's been virtually no snow melt on surfaces above ground level (fences, sheds, bins etc) and on the grass, still 3-4 inches.

Quite a bit of melt on roads and pavements, ground must have been too warm? But it's also frozen and the paths are like sheets of ice up to an inch thick!

Snow risk for today and tomorrow has decreased but Tuesday we have heavy snow forecast. Also seen some cold temp charts down to -10, -14 in rural areas this week :o

[bradymk]

What ever happens it happens between 6 and 12 oclock tuesday morning. In that time 16mm falls, now thats more than friday.

If only we could see mogreps to see if it agree's.

also more marginal.

[snowy36]

also more marginal.

I'll take my chance, if u not in u cant win. Dew points dont look to bad.

Edited January 20, 2013 by snowy36

[bradymk]

NAE showing an intense band of precip across South East Wales on Tuesday. More marginal for coastal areas than Friday but anywhere inland and higher up, its another big snow event. It will change im sure.

[snowy36]

NAE showing an intense band of precip across South East Wales on Tuesday. More marginal for coastal areas than Friday but anywhere inland and higher up, its another big snow event. It will change im sure.

Im sure it will change and ill only take it serious if the met puts out a warning, then it means that mogreps on board.

[J10]

The precipitation forecast for Tuesday seems to be developing feature it can easily move 100 miles or more at this stage, to exactly pinpoint where it will hit is troublesome.

Given that temps over Wales are much colder generally than in the run up to last Friday, remember it was 6c on the coast at Midnight Thursday, it seems to be less marginal to me. As ever time will tell.

The fact that NAE has such a potent area of precipitation moving into Wales though is very encouraging, better that than the mostly dry weather for tomorrow, however slight accumulations possible

Wales Ice

Issued at: 1333 on Sun 20 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

Sub-zero overnight temperatures will lead to ice forming where snow has fallen or melted during Sunday. In addition there is the risk of further localised snowfalls of some 1-3 cm in places during Monday with a low risk of as much as 5 cm. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel during this continuing spell of wintry weather.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Jackone

[dbaloo]

this happened in my street yesterday,couldn't believe it,how dare they ruin our snow!

Thats Caerphilly council for u,there when u don't want them and not when you do!

Edited January 20, 2013 by dbaloo

[snowy36]

I know it will change but if that 6 hour was to happen it would be chaos esp in the valleys, rush hour and everyone going nowhere.

[Gorky101]

Anyone notice the bands of precipitation heading towards the south coast of wales from the tip of cornwall what do you thing the chances of that arriving here in the early hours??

[dhillcrest]

Heavy snow in Mold for the last 2 hours nearly having been snowing at least lightly since 8 this morning. It's added another inch at least where its stuck to Fridays snow but its not quite cold enough to add to anywhere where the snow wasn't lying such as our path - melted instantly here and not been able to make its own layer.

[Panayiotis]

Thanks everyone for letting me know, the NAE is fairly new to me.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[DeepSnow]

Had some slight snow blowing around for a while now, nothing much though! Will be interesting to see what happens Tuesday!

[benb]

Anyone notice the bands of precipitation heading towards the south coast of wales from the tip of cornwall what do you thing the chances of that arriving here in the early hours??

Think that's the front that at one stage was due to make land-fall in the early hours of Monday and give another shot at a snow event, now forecast not to quite make it, I believe.

Kind of hope snow may be less marginal now we've actually the cold in, in this area anyway. Judge each event has on its merits though, obviously.

Edited January 20, 2013 by benb

[Gorky101]

Think that's the front that at one stage was due to make land-fall in the early hours of Monday and give another shot at a snow event, now forecast not to quite make it, I believe.

Kind of hope snow may be less marginal now we've actually the cold in, in this area anyway. Judge each event has on its merits though, obviously.

Strange because it seems to be beefing up all the way worth keeping an eye on I think but I guess the easterly wind will keep it away from us

Edited January 20, 2013 by Gorky101

[benb]

SE Wales, atm, looking good again for a significant fall of snow on the 12z Gfs, too.

Any chance of a westwards correction on this one, similar to Friday just gone?