Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards

[snowy36]

Heavy snow here Tuesday hmm, wonder if warnings will be issued by the meto?

Well the latest NAE Agree's with that, our precipitation goes from 2mm upto that point and in the next six hours goes to 8mm, 6mm equals 6cms. If only NAE went out a bit longer. We will see if its right.

[Blackjack]

Very very light fine snow in AberG

[Jayfromcardiff]

Well the latest NAE Agree's with that, our precipitation goes from 2mm upto that point and in the next six hours goes to 8mm, 6mm equals 6cms. If only NAE went out a bit longer. We will see if its right.

BBC also show this on their latest forecast! just a bit worried i have to travel to Torfaen tuesday for my apprenticeship exam!

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Looking at 5 min radar loop thats started to turn westward it might actually hit us if it carries on. I did say in the model thread that the ECM had that low going over bristol and sitting on us later on in the day and it doesnt go north. Anyone else seeing this actually happening

Edited January 20, 2013 by David 'Minty' Hill

[keithlucky]

Looking at 5 min radar loop thats started to turn westward it might actually hit us if it carries on. I did say in the model thread that the ECM had that low going over bristol and sitting on us later on in the day and it doesnt go north. Anyone else seeing this actually happening

Agreed atm but N east Wales favorite to get a covering lets watch and see were it goes ,you could well be right.

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Agreed atm but N east Wales favorite to get a covering lets watch and see were it goes ,you could well be right.

The charts I saw, the low moves across the south and joins with another one forming out to the SW ECM is still showing this happening but because of the 24 hour jump you miss it happening. I rekon thats going to go straight across mid wales and then go down into SW.

[dhillcrest]

Fairly heavy snow now in Mold, 120m asl. The radar seems to have us in a direct line from the south east and we could be in for a good top-up. I was mocking the bbc forecast last night with its thin finger of snow reaching up to the ne of Wales -didn't look very plausible but spot on again.

[keithlucky]

The charts I saw, the low moves across the south and joins with another one forming out to the SW ECM is still showing this happening but because of the 24 hour jump you miss it happening. I rekon thats going to go straight across mid wales and then go down into SW.

Hard to say the met had the from going up the N Sea coast .Does look like it"s moving east direction. Edited January 20, 2013 by keithlucky

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Hard to say the met had the from going up the N Sea coast .

I use Norwich in this case as a marker and Swindon, if you look at the radar you can clearly see the PPN is not going any further north than there, and now swindon is under the PPN so you can see its not going north at all its going west. Which is how ECM was handling it. It might change direction suddenly perhaps but as it stands now it will move down over mid wales into south wales. Thats my prediction

I am a novice but am learning fast

Edited January 20, 2013 by David 'Minty' Hill

[snefnug]

Snowing in Glyn Ceriog, going back to bed with tea, cat and snoozing husband to watch from window.

[Jackfrost]

Definitely a bit of western movement with the low, no denying that. That arm of precipitation over the West Midlands and North Wales is actually moving slightly S/SW. Whether any significant precipitation arrives in South Wales is another matter.

Very fine, light snow here, though there seems to have been more melt overnight.

[CRACKPOT]

Gavin Partridge has just tweeted to say end of cold is defo in sight next weekend as it turns mild but very wet. Seemed very confident of that.

JK

[dyl232]

Looks to me its moving slightly n w According to rain today

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Definitely a bit of western movement with the low, no denying that. That arm of precipitation over the West Midlands and North Wales is actually moving slightly S/SW. Whether any significant precipitation arrives in South Wales is another matter.

Very fine, light snow here, though there seems to have been more melt overnight.

By looks of it, its actually intensifying and growing as it does move SW. I am glad I was not only one seeing that happen. You can see the low on Sat24 it is moving north and probably will go up the coast however its pushing the clouds much further west it might slow down tho as it hits the west trying to push in. Its amazing watching the sat loops

[Gavla]

i actually agree from a complete novice point of view that doesnt like like going any further north, maybe a surprise in store but more than likely will suddenly change.

[loadsa]

Just started snizzling here

[goosey007]

Gavin Partridge has just tweeted to say end of cold is defo in sight next weekend as it turns mild but very wet. Seemed very confident of that.

JK

hmm next weekend is very FI i would'nt worry too much about next weekend.....signs are there I agree but the models could be over doing the atlantic we should know by tomorrow morning. My predition is that the models will show a delay in the mild until sunday,which will be interesting..... Edited January 20, 2013 by goosey007

[mikeocarroll]

Snizzle here too. I'm not expecting anything more than a bit of very light snow here in Mid Wales today (i.e. no fresh accumulation) but parts of north-east Wales may see a couple of cm, perhaps even a little more looking at the radar as the precip is slightly west of forecast.

[willitbsunny]

Actual drizzle here

[bradymk]

Looking at 5 min radar loop thats started to turn westward it might actually hit us if it carries on. I did say in the model thread that the ECM had that low going over bristol and sitting on us later on in the day and it doesnt go north. Anyone else seeing this actually happening

This is a forecast based solely on the current radar output for midday.

This is the forecast for midday based on the latest run of the Hi-Res model.

Pretty similar but i would say the precip is slightly further west than forecast yes, and although there is light snow spreading west and you will most likely get snow grains in cardiff area next couple of hours, the main band of precipitation is heading north up the east coast.

Edited January 20, 2013 by bradythemole

[leehws]

Has just started snowing here

[snowy36]

Has just started snowing here

Lee u missed out on friday so i hope today makes up for it.

[J10]

Gavin Partridge has just tweeted to say end of cold is defo in sight next weekend as it turns mild but very wet. Seemed very confident of that.

JK

The models do seem to be suggesting this however originally the mild from the west was meant to have won by now, and it still looks cold outside.

In the same way, the cold stays at T+120, the same is happening with the mild.

The mild will win out eventually but when?

[Nevesy]

Some light Sleet in Cwmbran, Jay the roads in Torfaen are OK, council have done a great job on the main roads. Where abouts do you need to go?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Some light Sleet in Cwmbran, Jay the roads in Torfaen are OK, council have done a great job on the main roads. Where abouts do you need to go?

Not too sure where another apprentice is driving us to Torfaen Training - It's just if heavy snow comes early hours of Tuesday it's going to be annoying as we could end up getting stuck up there.