Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards

[andymusic]

MORE PICCIES

[J10]

Over on the MOD thread there seems to be a bit of doom mongering into the cold spell coming to an end quite soon - probably end of the week latest.

The impression I get is that Wales will remain dry the next few days, not too cold at night - considering how cold it could get with snow on the ground and clear skies - the anticipated 'snow' *attacks* earmarked for Monday/Tuesday, if they do make it, could well be very marginal indeed.

Tomorrows front will not move west enough for us to get any action. Interesting times - but perhaps we are just hoping for more - but signs are we will be disappointed. Hope not.

JK

The models do appear to be suggesting an end to the cold spell towards the weekend. However looking at the strat thread, and fair play to the forecast of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming, it looks a temporary lull as it is set to turn colder once again at the start of February, with perhaps heights to the North West, as the Vortex remnants might be set to move to our North East.

In the shorter term, Monday does look quite dry unless the front pushes further east than currently projected. However Tuesday looks quite promising and I don't think it would be as marginal as the past event.

[J10]

Friday's snow was nice to see here in low ground Swansea we had a few cm's but higher up closer to 150m there was much more, was nice walking about and taking in the views.

I still think snow opportunities are present over the next few days while colder air remains in charge for now.

I see the NAE has been playing with the idea of Mondays front edging into parts of south wales however its latest run places it further south:

http://expert-images...012112_1912.gif

Something we will need to keep an eye on is Tuesday potential for more sleet and snow as shown on GFS and UKMO:

http://www.meteociel...60-21.GIF?19-16 < @ 60hrs UKMO

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-60.png?12 < 60hrs GFS

Low pressure closer by with colder air present over the British isles, snowfall distribution will be determined by where these fronts/troughs pass through/if at all, but chances seem somewhat high for some more snow across parts of Wales at least during the early part of next week.

Definitely a big contrast locally with snow levels at different altitudes with Circa 4 inches here on grass, and snow covers everything that hasn't been brushed/salted away. Generally much less at lower levels, with not much on roads and even grass coverage variable. (footy and back)

Clearly not only was there less snow than in 2010 locally, it was far more marginal as well.

At moment Tuesday looks best for further snow, but things can change very quickly.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Jackone

[Ginkrots]

If the Atlantic doesn't break through and the SSW effects our weather over the coming weeks then this could be a lengthy cold spell.

[welshwizard]

The models do appear to be suggesting an end to the cold spell towards the weekend. However looking at the strat thread, and fair play to the forecast of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming, it looks a temporary lull as it is set to turn colder once again at the start of February, with perhaps heights to the North West, as the Vortex remnants might be set to move to our North East.

In the shorter term, Monday does look quite dry unless the front pushes further east than currently projected. However Tuesday looks quite promising and I don't think it would be as marginal as the past event.

hi I just been reading in model thread and they seem to think the temps be too high for snow in our area (wales)next week,its showing much higher temps but they are predicited temps? if we could keep low temps over us we really could do well in this next week as there seems to be quite a few storms that could battle over us. that be fun ha ha,just wait and see what the next few days bring as reguards to cold and snow/rain

[mikeocarroll]

If the Atlantic doesn't break through and the SSW effects our weather over the coming weeks then this could be a lengthy cold spell.

It certainly could be quite a lengthy period of snow lying - we've had snow lying here since Monday and it will take a considerable warming to melt the snow that's now lying. Managed to make it down the lane to the village this afternoon, only 4x4s managed it yesterday (and then one ended up in the hedge), but the snow has had an impact on business with hundreds of pounds worth of bookings cancelled over the weekend. I really wish the council would plough our road as I've had one or two customers turn back when within half a mile of the hotel, saying they can't get down (though like I say I managed it earlier so it is doable if you keep the revs low and only brake with the gears).

So by next weekend I'm not sure I would mind a bit of a thaw!

[Ginkrots]

hi I just been reading in model thread and they seem to think the temps be too high for snow in our area (wales)next week,its showing much higher temps but they are predicited temps? if we could keep low temps over us we really could do well in this next week as there seems to be quite a few storms that could battle over us. that be fun ha ha,just wait and see what the next few days bring as reguards to cold and snow/rain

Models have been wrong even a few days out lately. Wales for instance has seen bands of snow and showers that have been unpredicted until 12 hours before. So I would look at charts with a pinch of salt since things have changed so much.

[keithlucky]

hi I just been reading in model thread and they seem to think the temps be too high for snow in our area (wales)next week,its showing much higher temps but they are predicited temps? if we could keep low temps over us we really could do well in this next week as there seems to be quite a few storms that could battle over us. that be fun ha ha,just wait and see what the next few days bring as reguards to cold and snow/rain

Be careful a lot of jealous people on model thread they then put there slant on the model thread some try to downgrade the snow potential for S West UK.

[Bafan]

Snowing here albeit very lightly! Fresh cover on my car windscreen!

[J10]

Be careful a lot of jealous people on model thread they then put there slant on the model thread some try to downgrade the snow potential for S West UK.

More than an element of truth there.

[andymusic]

Where I am in Wales - just looked at the GFS - output suggests we'll be having snow again and again and again and again and again - without any interuption from milder temps - and yes the guys the other side of the border are probably jealous about Wales - well I don't mind - I'll sell tickets if they want to come up to me - we'll put them up in the SHED! LOL LOL LOL LOL and we'll charge them the kind of rents London charges - it won't be the luxury log cabins they are used to but the cold and nasty sheds we love to have here in Wales - but I'll charge them a fortune if they want to sample my snow LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL - THE BEST SNOW IN THE UK - powdery - sexy and ALL MINE LOL

[SLAMMER]

updated forecast from 6pm still showing light snow tomorrow?

[soupsurfer7]

Tuesday is 3 days away. When we think about Friday's event, and what we knew about it on Tuesday just gone, there were frequent changes to the forecast... so still low confidence for another say 24-36 hours.

[ourson]

MetO 5 day showing heavy snow for Cardiff tomorrow night. Not much for other parts of SE Wales. Is this the PPN coming from the east? Still showing some potential for snow showers as well for the next few days. Counrtyfile tomorrow methinks.

Bloody chilly here atm. I rarely fell the cold, but my feet are freezing tonight. Hot water bottle and an old-man blanket needed!

[freeze for all]

MetO 5 day showing heavy snow for Cardiff tomorrow night. Not much for other parts of SE Wales. Is this the PPN coming from the east? Still showing some potential for snow showers as well for the next few days. Counrtyfile tomorrow methinks.

Bloody chilly here atm. I rarely fell the cold, but my feet are freezing tonight. Hot water bottle and an old-man blanket needed!

It also has -4 for Monday night and sleet! Very strange considering that higher temps show snow lol

Edited January 19, 2013 by freeze for all

[Buzz]

BBC 2 NOW @5.30 1963 WINTER DOCUMENTARY

Thanks, that was excellent!

Here it is on iPlayer for those that missed it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q9d86/Winterwatch_1963_The_Big_Freeze/

[TonyH]

Where I am in Wales - just looked at the GFS - output suggests we'll be having snow again and again and again and again and again - without any interuption from milder temps

Well until next weekend, GFS 10c Wales (may not happen)

Edited January 19, 2013 by TonyH

[snowy36]

Everyone's talking( main forum) about the brakedown of our cold spell ( will it wont it) yet the models can't decide whats happening on monday never minds whats happening next weekend.

gfs-no

Ecw- yes ( most intresting)

Nae- Maybe

Fax- Close

So whats going to happen.

[TonyH]

There will be snow in places on Monday, just where, when and how much needs a nearer timescale, i.e. 0 hours to decide!

[J10]

Really could do with temps way below freezing tonight, as snow seeming to be thawing a bit from underneath (especially close to house). In the build up to the snow, there were no severe frosts.

In Contrast, there is a garden table close to the house and its snow level, seems to be holding up well.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Jackone

[Jayfromcardiff]

Everyone's talking( main forum) about the brakedown of our cold spell ( will it wont it) yet the models can't decide whats happening on monday never minds whats happening next weekend.

gfs-no

Ecw- yes ( most intresting)

Nae- Maybe

Fax- Close

So whats going to happen.

Don't worry about any breakdown mate, wont be until next weekend so i've heard anyway. I think out next chance of snow is Tuesday now but wouldn't be suprised if we saw some monday albeit light.

[TonyH]

Be careful a lot of jealous people on model thread they then put there slant on the model thread some try to downgrade the snow potential for S West UK.

They are generally also clinically insane!

Edited January 19, 2013 by TonyH

[snowy36]

Don't worry about any breakdown mate, wont be until next weekend so i've heard anyway. I think out next chance of snow is Tuesday now but wouldn't be suprised if we saw some monday albeit light.

Jay have a look at the ecw at (weatheronline) for monday, looks intresting. Ecw Could be wrong.

Edited January 19, 2013 by snowy36

[Panayiotis]

I promised you guys that I will do an update on what early next week may have instore, so here it is:

Starting off with the latest fax charts:

At 60hrs (Tuesday 12am) there is an occluded front approaching from the west, at this time we have slack SE winds so dew points and the upper air temp will be low (negative figures), within 12 hours this front passes over Wales with as its an occluded front precipitation will likely to be heavy to moderate, and likely to fall as snow (however for the west and SW it may be marginal) , as it hits the colder uppers and dew points, however the dew points will rise after the front passes over as its followed by a westerly, which may turn any showers behind the front into light sleet/rain, however uppers will be between (-4C to -7C) so there is chance of it staying as snow (too early to yet for sure however).

Now to the ECM, which has things a little different to the UKMO.

The ECM has the snow starting at 3pm on Monday, with light to moderate precipitation falling over Pembrokeshire and S wales, which will likely to fall as snow as the uppers are at -5C and below, and with the winds coming from the NE/E dew points will also be favourable for snow.

At 6pm the ECM is forecasting the precipitation to be quite heavy in SE Wales, combined with low uppers (below -6C) and low-ish dew points, the precipitation is likely to be heavy snow.

This will move NE into eastern and cental parts of Wales.

That is then forecast to clear at 12am Tuesday, however at 6am, more precipitation will be coming to into southern/central Wales in from the west, which again is mostly likely to fall as snow.

This then clears to leave some snow showers in SW Wales.

(Please make sure you read the scale before commenting!)

The NAE doesnt go out to Tuesday yet but I will give you an analysis of what I think might happen.

At 48hrs Monday 12pm there is a front to the SW which should make its way NE and as it does so, it should pass over Wales, this combined with cold uppers and low dew points should produce snowfall.

I will do an update on the 18z GFS as this run is closer to the timeframe, things likely to change but so far its looking very interesting, I have only went up to 72hrs as this is where I feel confident enough to post on chances of snow.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Matty23]

so most of what u said would effect west midlands well central/south west midlands