Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards

[Panayiotis]

so most of what u said would effect west midlands well central/south west midlands

At times (mostly light to moderate precipitation) but the heavier precipitation will be confined to the S and SW of England. Edited January 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[snowy36]

panayioits the ecw chart is more impresive ( for monday) on the weatheronline than the one u put up.

[soupsurfer7]

Brilliant analysis Panayiotis

[Jayfromcardiff]

Wow impressive charts! heavy snow monday then? - i thought the low wasn't supposed to affect Wales? hmm wonder what the METO have to say.

[Panayiotis]

panayioits the ecw chart is more impresive ( for monday) on the weatheronline than the one u put up.

Are you on about the uppers air temperature charts? I use the ones I have posted as WeatherOnline only use the times (24,48,72)hrs etc therefore I can have a better idea of where the precipitation is going and have it compared with the upper air temp.

[ourson]

Any thoughts on the "heavy snow" for Cardiff on the MetO 5 day forecast?

Is this a machine-generated forecast or has a human looked at the info and made a prediction?

Personally, I would chose the human over the machine, but would welcome any comments.

Edited January 19, 2013 by ourson

[Panayiotis]

Any thoughts on the "heavy snow" for Cardiff on the MJetO 5 day forecast?

Is this a machine-generated forecast or has a human looked at the info and made a prediction?

Personally, I would chose the human over the machine, but would welcome any comments.

Most probably machine-generated, I dont think for every county/city/village/town they get a human to interpret the models.

[snowy36]

Wow impressive charts! heavy snow monday then? - i thought the low wasn't supposed to affect Wales? hmm wonder what the METO have to say.

Well if u like snow then hope ecw is right and if u like dry back the gfs, nae falls right between the two.

I'm not sure if it snows it's going to be heavy, but if u got snow it will be a nice top up.

And panayiotis i likethe surface presure charts on weatheronline, who do u think is right.

Edited January 19, 2013 by snowy36

[Panayiotis]

,

I like the surface presure charts on weatheronline, it looks more impresive in there. Who do u think will be right on monday.

Id love it if we could see the charts every 12 hours for ecw and not 24.

Obviously I would love the ECM to be right but so far I dont know to be truth about it, the GFS 18z is coming out in 5min so hopefully it will show something similar the ECM but if it doesnt I will try and see which model it may/if any its following. I will post results after the run ~11pm. Edited January 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[snowy36]

Obviously I would love the ECM to be right but so far I dont know to be truth about it, the GFS 18z is coming out in 5min so hopefully it will show something similar the ECM but if it doesnt I will try and see which model it may/if any its following. I will post results after the run ~11pm.

Im not sure what the gfs comes up with i'd believe.

Edited January 19, 2013 by snowy36

[Bobby]

Some decent snow moving in on Tuesday on the GFS

[J10]

Really could do with temps way below freezing tonight, as snow seeming to be thawing a bit from underneath (especially close to house). In the build up to the snow, there were no severe frosts.

In Contrast, there is a garden table close to the house and its snow level, seems to be holding up well.

Clouds have gone, and the moon is out, should help those temps drop tonight.

NAE - Mostly dry across Wales next 48hrs, the exception being NE Wales, which has some precipitation (probably snow) from the fronts from the South East)

GFS - Similar to NAE to 48hrs, more general period of precipitation edging up from SW on Tuesday morning. Dewpoints look very low generally, marginality for snow similar or better than last Fridays event. [as per Bobby's chart above]

Of Course this is only one set of outputs, and detail is likely to change.

Further precipitation likely on Thursday, more likely to be of the wet variety as the GFS is 18Hz is rather progressive.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

Bobby we want to see the fax tonight stalling this front over Wales with heights building from the North the the next front reaches us on Thursday this front will start to mix the colder pool of air out turning the snow back to sleet with snow then confined to hills.

Edited January 19, 2013 by keithlucky

[Panayiotis]

So the GFS has come out to the timeframe where most interest lies regarding the snow, and its very similar to the ECM, however it delays the event by around 9-12hrs.

The GFS at 57hrs shows a band of heavy precipitation to the SW, with the heavy precipitation starting to edge into Swansea and Pembrokeshire, as the dew points will be into negative figures apart from the SW, this will likely to be snow away from the SW (where its more likely to be sleet/snow) as the flow is coming from the continent, quite similar to what we saw yesterday in fact, this then moves NE however losing intensity (however still heavy).

[snowy36]

I see the ecw is out on it's own, nae saying no and gfs is all over the place as usual. Oh well lets wait and see the mornings fax's.

[Bobby]

I think this cold spell has at least one more decent snowfall left up it's sleeve for us, maybe a surprise one, before the Atlantic wins out. Next week looks a right mess and snow could appear out of the blue I think. It looks to remain very cold at least for the next few days so I don't see much thawing of our snow.

The skies tried to clear here earlier but still cloudy. Under clear skies there could be some very low temperatures with the snowfall.

Look at the daytime maxes for tomorrow, cor blimey

[Panayiotis]

I think this cold spell has at least one more decent snowfall left up it's sleeve for us, maybe a surprise one, before the Atlantic wins out. Next week looks a right mess and snow could appear out of the blue I think. It looks to remain very cold at least for the next few days so I don't see much thawing of our snow.

The skies tried to clear here earlier but still cloudy. Under clear skies there could be some very low temperatures with the snowfall.

Look at the daytime maxes for tomorrow, cor blimey

We are colder than most of the Alps on that chart!

[snowy36]

I think this cold spell has at least one more decent snowfall left up it's sleeve for us, maybe a surprise one, before the Atlantic wins out. Next week looks a right mess and snow could appear out of the blue I think. It looks to remain very cold at least for the next few days so I don't see much thawing of our snow.

The skies tried to clear here earlier but still cloudy. Under clear skies there could be some very low temperatures with the snowfall.

Look at the daytime maxes for tomorrow, cor blimey

I think tuesday into wednesday looks our best bet( but who knows with the way the charts are changing every couple of hours). Our cold block is rocky and the big bad atlantic(ivan drago) is coming, but u better bring u a game dude.

Edited January 19, 2013 by snowy36

[J10]

I think tuesday into wednesday looks our best bet( but who knows with the way the charts are changing every couple of hours). Our cold block is rocky and the big bad atlantic(ivan drago) is coming, but u better bring u a game dude.

Odds on Ivan winning the first round next week, but who will win the 2nd round into February, come on Rocky.

[snowy36]

Odds on Ivan winning the first round next week, but who will win the 2nd round into February, come on Rocky.

What a tune, i think we need one of these weather planes to put big speakers on it and to play it when it get's near it and to tell it to get up Rocky.... and fight back.

[keithlucky]

JACKONE Go HP go all i need is a ra ra skirt (better not knobbly knees) Edited January 19, 2013 by keithlucky

[snowy36]

Well for me the last chart i'm looking at is probably the best one and that is the 120 fax chart, still time to fight back, down we might be but its not over yet.

[g1blet]

models showing possibilities of a repeat performance next friday, oddly, i seem to recall in 2010, the interesting events always seemed to be on a friday?? i may be wrong tho

[bradymk]

models showing possibilities of a repeat performance next friday, oddly, i seem to recall in 2010, the interesting events always seemed to be on a friday?? i may be wrong tho

No model really showing a repeat of yesterday. Only 18z GFS shows a possible snowfall event but even that would be a snow to rain event with snow only in the East. There are a few better ensemble members which shows more -ve troughing with winds S of E rather than S or SWly but nothing really. Before Friday shows more potential for snow. No sig snowfall events as of yet but Mondays snow is a real headache, not sure how north this will get and i now think it will stay south of Wales. Tuesdays precip shows more northward extent so this is a better chance however uncertainty low once again and we dont want this to move too far north as this will introduce less colder air for a time. But for any snow next week, snow events will crop up without much notice with a risk of snow every day. Edited January 19, 2013 by bradythemole

[goosey007]

models showing possibilities of a repeat performance next friday, oddly, i seem to recall in 2010, the interesting events always seemed to be on a friday?? i may be wrong tho

it was monday the 20th Dec that was the best from what i can remember!